There are only a few more unseen films left to consider, The Founder (has been seen, but not widely discussed), Miss Sloane (has been seen, but not widely discussed), and Silence (hasn’t been seen yet). That doesn’t mean there aren’t other films that haven’t had much coverage that could be players, but these are three of the major titles that we need to know more about before deciding if they are genuinely threats in any measurable way.

We go about our current list with the major festivals all behind us. This caused Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk to crater and Manchester by the Sea to explode. There were myriad other changes that you can see below, not the least of which was Viola Davis moving into the supporting category, likely locking up her Oscar and leaving Best Actress as a fight between the unadorned and the previously rewarded. This list also marks our final set of predictions before the precursors begin later this month.

As always, these are preliminary predictions and our crystal balls still need some polishing before we can solidify. We’ll be back in late December after the major precursors announce nominations and winners to give our new thoughts on the developing landscape of films.

KEY:

Best Picture

• 20th Century Women (PP N) [New]
• Allied (WL T)
• Arrival (WL N) [New] (PP T) (TB T) (TL N) [New]
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TB O)
• Fences (WL O) (PP N) [New] (TL O)
• Hidden Figures (WL N) [New]
• Jackie (PP T) [New] (TB T) (TL T)
• La La Land (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Lion (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Manchester By the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL T)
• Moonlight (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Nocturnal Animals (WL T)
• Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sully (TB O) (TL N)

Best Animated Feature

• April & the Extraordinary World (TB O)
• Finding Dory (PP O) (TB O)
• Kubo and the Two Strings (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moana (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• My Life as a Courgette (TL N) [New]
• The Red Turtle (WL N) [New] (TL O)
• Sing (WL O) (PP N) [New]
• Zootopia (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Garth Davis – Lion (TB N) [New]
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL T) (PP N) [New] (TB T) (TL N) [New]
• Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TB O)
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TL N) [New]
• Jeff Nichols – Loving (PP O)
• Martin Scorsese – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL N) [New] (TL T)

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TB O) (TL T)
• Joe Alwyn – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TB O)
• Joel Edgerton – Loving (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Andrew Garfield – Silence (PP T)
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land (WL T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Tom Hanks – Sully (WL N) (PP O) (TL N) [New]
• Michael Keaton – The Founder (WL N)
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL O) (PP N) [New] (TB N) (TL O)

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Arrival (WL N) [New] (PP T) (TB T) (TL N) [New]
• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (PP N) [New] (TB N) [New] (TL O)
• Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane (WL N) [New]
• Ruth Negga – Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Natalie Portman – Jackie (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O) (PP T) (TB N) [New] (TL T)

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (WL N) [New] (PP T) (TB N) [New] (TL T)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (WL N) [New] (PP T) (TB N) [New] (TL T)
• Adam Driver – Silence (TB O)
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (TB T)
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea (PP O) (TL T)
• Liam Neeson – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Dev Patel – Lion (PP N) [New] (TL N) [New]
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals (WL T)
• J.K. Simmons – La La Land (WL N) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – Rules Don’t Apply (WL O)
• Viola Davis – Fences (WL N) [New] (PP N) [New] (TB N) [New] (TL N) [New]
• Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (PP N) [New] (TL N) [New]
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls (PP T)
• Nicole Kidman – Lion (WL N) [New] (TB T) (TL T)
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (WL T)
• Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TB O)
• Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

• Hell or High Water (WL O) (PP O)
• Jackie (WL N) [New] (TB N) [New] (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lobster (TB O)
• Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (PP N) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival (PP O) (TB O) (TL N) [New]
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TB O)
• Fences (WL O) (PP N) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Live by Night (TL N) [New]
• A Monster Calls (PP N) [New]
• Moonlight (WL O)
• Nocturnal Animals (WL O)
• Silence (WL N) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Visual Effects

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Captain America: Civil War (PP O)
• Deadpool (PP O)
• Doctor Strange (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Eye in the Sky (PP O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O) (TB O)
• The Jungle Book (TB O) (TL O)
• Midnight Special (PP O)
• A Monster Calls (WL O)
• Passengers (TL O)
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)