Now that the great majority of critics have had their say and most of the guilds haven’t, we thought we’d put together one final list for 2016. Below are our predictions in eleven categories. A lot has changed, but a lot has stayed the same. Things are starting to coalesce around 60%-80% of the potential field.

This is our first time ranking the Best Picture nominees in the order we think they’ll be recognized. The numbers next to each person’s initials represents where they ranked it on the list (10 being highest, 1 being lowest). At the far left of each title is the total of all four of our ranked combined. This list is then organized in order from most likely to least likely to be selected. In the introductions below, the contributors offer up the number of nominees they believe will ultimately be selected.

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: A lot has changed and I’ve made some adjustments. While I’m still not 100% on these, I’m about 80% locked in. The closer we get, the closer I’ll get. As to how many Best Picture nominees? I suspect that with the top three siphoning off most of the first place votes, we could be stuck with a relatively small slate of Best Picture nominees. Of course, if all three (La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight get enough mentions, they’ll be set aside and we could even end up with a broader slate, approaching ten. Currently, I’m going to put my guess at 9 nominees. However, I could just as easily see it cut off at 5.
Peter J. Patrick: This seems to be one of those years in which the winner will be one of three films with an indeterminate number of co-nominees. I’m guessing a total of 8 or at most, 9.
Tripp Burton: Oscar Cutoff: 8 Best Picture nominations. No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourrette: Several places in the races do seem to be cementing, even if all spots are not quite set. There is definitely a lot of movement in the fourth and fifth spots right now, so there may well be surprises on the nomination day. In each of the acting races there are at least three spots that seem certain in them, except for supporting actress where four seem solid. (Greta Gerwig is the one that I am most uncertain of in that race.) Viola Davis of Fences and Marheshala Ali of Moonlight are fairly strong front runners to not only be nominated but then to win in the supporting categories. Each lead acting category has two front runners and the race could easily go either way. I do not expect there to be too many surprises when it comes to winners, though both picture and director could have some definite wiggle room when it comes to both nominees and winners. I am only expecting eight nominees for Best Picture, though the Academy could even surprise me on that. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Fences all seem strong bets for multiple nominations and any could win, though the first two seem the most likely choices. Silence and the mostly unseen so far Hidden Figures are the two films that I am not sure about. Both might end up being players, or both could fade away and I am not certain what is most likely to happen. La La Land had seemed the front runner, albeit a somewhat weak one, but the fact that it did not get a cast nomination from SAG may show that it does not have the strong support that I expected it would have. Moonlight is an independent darling, but may be too edgy for the Academy. Manchester and Fences may both be a little too serious this year, though the Academy does often reward those types of film. I do like the fact that there are not the guaranteed winners like last year’s race had. It should be an exciting time.

KEY:

Best Picture

• (38) La La Land (10 T) (8 T) (10 T) (10 O)
• (36) Manchester By the Sea (9 O) (10 O) (8 O) (9 T)
• (34) Moonlight (8 T) (9 T) (9 T) (8 O)
• (22) Lion (5 D) [New] (5 T) (7 T) (5 O)
• (20) Arrival (6 N) (7 T) (5 T) (2 N)
• (15) Fences (2 O) (6 D) (7 O)
• (14) Silence (4 O) (1 O) (3 O) (6 O)
• (12) Hacksaw Ridge (3 D) [New] (3 D) [New] (2 D) [New] (4 D) [New]
• (12) Hell or High Water (7 D) [New] (4 D) [New] (1 D) [New]
• (9) Jackie (1 D) [New] (4 T) (1 T) (3 T)
• (6) Loving (6 O)
• (2) Hidden Figures (2 D) [New]

Best Animated Feature

• (1) Finding Dory (TB O)
• Kubo and the Two Strings (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moana (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• My Life as a Zucchini (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New] (TL N)
• The Red Turtle (WL N) (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL O)
• Zootopia (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Garth Davis – Lion (TB N)
• Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge (WL D) [New]
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL T) (PP N) (TB T) (TL N)
• Pablo Larrain – Jackie (PP D) [New]
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TL N)
• Jeff Nichols – Loving (PP O)
• Martin Scorsese – Silence (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Denis Villeneuve – Arrival (TB D) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Fences (TL T)

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TB O) (TL T)
• Joel Edgerton – Loving (PP O)
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land (WL T) (PP D) [New] (TB T) (TL T)
• Tom Hanks – Sully (TL N)
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL O) (PP N) (TB N) (TL O)

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Arrival (WL N) (TB T) (TL N)
• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (PP N) (TB N) (TL O)
• Isabelle Huppert – Elle (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New]
• Ruth Negga – Loving (PP O) (TB O)
• Natalie Portman – Jackie (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (WL D) [New] (TL D) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (WL D) [New] (TB T) (TL D) [New]
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB D) [New] (TL T)
• Dev Patel – Lion (WL D) [New] (PP N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals (PP D) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis – Fences (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (PP N) (TL N)
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Nicole Kidman – Lion (WL N) (TB T) (TL T)
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (WL T) (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
• Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

• Captain Fantastic (PP D) [New]
• Hell or High Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Jackie (WL N) (PP D) [New] (TB N) (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lobster (WL D) [New] (TB O) (TL D) [New]
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
• Fences (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (PP D) [New]
• Hidden Figures (PP D) [New]
• Lion (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP D) (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
• Silence (WL N) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Visual Effects

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The BFG (PP D) [New]
• Captain America: Civil War (PP O)
• Doctor Strange (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O) (TB O)
• The Jungle Book (WL D) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Kubo and the Two Strings (PP D) [New]
• Passengers (TL O)
• Rogue One (WL O) (PP D) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

Best Foreign Language Film

• Land of Mine (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• A Man Called Ove (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• My Life as a Zucchini (PP O) (TL O)
• Paradise (WL O) (TB O)
• The Salesman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Tanna (PP O)
• Toni Erdmann (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)