June 3, 2016

Me Before You

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unkonwn. The romance genre has had some struggles in recent years with literary adaptations being the only ones to do well at the box office. This is certainly a literary adaptation, but is it one that will have a large impact on the box office? I’m not certain it will at this point.”
Box Office Results: $56.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Topping out as expected, the romantic drama didn’t do gangbusters, but wasn’t an unmitigated flop.

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. In the realm of music comedies, a rather limited subset of films, there haven’t been very many to score more than $50 million at the box office. While this one could certainly do that, I expect that it being wedged between two more likely box office champs and in the midst of a lot of more popular features, it will struggle to make much at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $9.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It isn’t that surprising that a film that looked like a Christopher Guest Mockumentary by way of Saturday Night Live couldn’t find an audience, but doing this badly was completely unexpected

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first reboot of the franchise was a $191 million success. That is enough to make sure it has a number of sequels. However, I’m not so sure the series will last very long as I expect this one to have trouble mixed in with several other bigger event pictures whereas its predecessor had August and September largely to itself.”
Box Office Results: $82.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Some thought that the super success of the prior effort would result in an easy sell at the box office, but it appears that fans weren’t nearly as excited about the sequel as the studio was.

June 10, 2016

The Conjuring 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original was a horror hit. Not perhaps to the degree of the Paranormal Activity series, but big enough to merit a sequel. I suspect it will still do quite well, but how quickly will the concept wear out its welcome.”
Box Office Results: $102.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] This is a franchise that will continue to keep on giving until they do something abjectly stupid, which is how the Paranormal Activity franchise eventually flopped.

Now You See Me 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original was a bigger hit than expected in 2013. The sequel is certainly to follow a long string of genre sequels to fail to live up to the predecessor’s heights. It’s also facing tougher competition this time around.”
Box Office Results: $65.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While not quite up to predictions, the end result isn’t terribly bad. Of course, many expected the film to perform up to its predecessor’s expectations, but that was always going to be a pipe dream.

Warcraft

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. If the critics like it and the box office is big enough, I’m sure there will be some consideration put to the film’s creative categories. I doubt it will be a Best Picture contender, but that all depends on a lot of factors.”
Oscar Results: Its box office failure will likely keep it out of voters’ memories.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There’s really no way to know how this will perform. Most video game adaptations are duds, but this one has a respected director and a video game that has millions of fans and a highly successful massively-multiplayer game spun off the property. If all 13 million World of Warcraft subscribers bought a single $8.58 ticket that would be more than $111 million. That’s just in the United States. That isn’t to say that they will all pay for it, but some will see it multiple times. If it’s also a solid player with critics, the film could easily surpass my prediction.”
Box Office Results: $47.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] While it was a huge performer in China, American audiences just weren’t sold on this video game’s big screen adaptation.

June 17, 2016

Central Intelligence

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Kevin Hart’s box office takes have been solid, but frequently below $100 million. Dwayne Johnson has had far better success. Together, they could do much better than predicted.”
Box Office Results: $127.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson both have strong track records behind them at the box office. The combination yielded a solid result, but perhaps not nearly as high as it could have gone.

Finding Dory

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Pixar is a great Oscar performer. While they’ve stumbled a few times recently, they appear to be back at the top of their game. Best Animated Feature is certain to be in play for this film, but it will have to contend with Zootopia and Moana for the win.”
Oscar Results: The film wasn’t quite a hit with critics, but its box office numbers were staggering. That may be enough to earn it a spot in this year’s Oscar race, though competition is fierce.
Box Office Prospects: $450 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. At one time, Finding Nemo was the undisputed Pixar champ with $339 million. It has since been topped by Inside Out and Toy Story 3. Outside of Cars 2, all of the Pixar sequels have outperformed their predecessors’ initial box office takes. Adjust for inflation and Monsters University joins Cars 2 in failing. However, I expect this to resemble Toy Story‘s progressive increases rather than those others. Adjusted for inflation, Finding Nemo is the top grossing Pixar ever. I suspect that title might fall, but it will be a very challenging climb.”
Box Office Results: $485.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] What can one say about the success of this franchise, it’s staggering. I’m sure Pixar is trying to come up with a way to give this series another entry, just based on the exceptional performance.

June 24, 2016

Free State of Jones

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Releasing over the summer isn’t the smartest move for an Oscar contender, especially a wide release. At the specialty box office, it can prove to be a potent factor, but bombing at the box office could doom it. The film could be a player in several key races, but that will depend entirely on its reviews.”
Oscar Results: With the box office failure behind it, the film is unlikely to fair well with Oscar voters.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Matthew McConaughey has never been a box office draw. His films have performed well, but that isn’t necessarily his doing. If you look at the likes of The Lincoln Lawyer, you’ll see his general potential. However, a Civil War drama in the midst of the summer could be a draw for older viewers who don’t cotton to all this superhero nonsense.”
Box Office Results: $20.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Not even Matthew McConaughey can sell a Civil War drama. It’s just not a genre most audiences rush out to see.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The original picked up a single Oscar nomination for Best Visual Effects. I don’t see that happening again this year as its effects don’t look to be that original or spectacular this time out and once again competition is astounding this year.”
Oscar Results: The film could still compete in the sound and visual effects categories, but wins don’t seem likely at this point.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film was a box office titan in 1996. Upon its release, it became the 8th biggest box office hit of all time (unadjusted). That $306 million would be $594 million today. That doesn’t mean much. The original film had a box office titan in tow with Will Smith starring. That isn’t happening this time. Will people think there’s enough reason for a sequel? Will it tap into a cultural zeitgeist like Jurassic World did? I suspect it will underperform its predecessor in actual dollars, not even coming close to its adjusted total. There’s just far too much competition for it to dominate this year.”
Box Office Results: $103.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] If anyone was expecting this film to perform at the level of its predecessor 20 years ago, they were sadly mistaken. While the film crossed the vaunted century mark, that isn’t enough for it to not seem like a failure.

Swiss Army Man (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Being weird doesn’t generally help with the Oscars, but it has some solid reviews and buzz coming out of the festival circuit, so anything is possible.”
Oscar Results: It’s not going to be an Oscar player. It might get some nominations from the Spirit Awards, but that’s the only option it has.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. All that will give this film a push at the specialty box office is its unusual premise. Curious folk will seek it out, but will it be much of a hit beyond that? It’s possible, but I doubt it.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was such a bizarre premise that it’s no surprise the film didn’t quite turn into a box office smash, but these numbers aren’t too bad.