July 1, 2016

The BFG

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The trailers don’t give the impression that the effects are all that great, but the film is sure to compete in other categories like Original Score, Production Design and Costume Design. Plus, if it’s a hit with critics, it could be a minor Best Picture contender.”
Oscar Results: Now that Spielberg’s film has failed the box office test, its hope lies in the tech categories and most of those are likely out of reach. Best Visual Effects is now it’s only real opportunity and I sincerely doubt it can beat the current competition.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. It’s been over 30 years since Spielberg last had a non-animated family-targeted film to please the public. That film remained in theaters for a very long time and became one of the all-time biggest blockbusters. Could that happen this time? I doubt it. The marketplace just isn’t configured for that and I’m not sure the trailers are doing the film many favors. However, it’s no doubt Spielberg is likely to have his biggest hit in years.”
Box Office Results: $55.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Steven Spielberg is one of the few directors who can wield cinematic magic that generates box office receipts. In his 29-film career, only 7 films have failed to surpass $70 million at the box office. Adjusting for inflation, that number drops to 4. The BFG, is essentially Spielberg’s third-lowest box office performer ever, coming in just ahead of Empire of the Sun and The Sugarland Express. Even 2005’s Massad revenge drama performed better when adjusted for inflation. The material should have been a box office hit, but wasn’t. This is incredibly disappointing. Has Spielberg lost his magic or was the marketing for this film so abysmal that no one wanted to see it?

The Legend of Tarzan

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. A couple of decades ago, the lack of competition would have given this film a lot of opportunities. However, the market is flooded with similar films with similar production quality, so I doubt there will be a rush to recognise this film, especially if it isn’t that good.”
Oscar Results: The film was never a major Oscar contender and the competition this year is far too strong to even consider it. Not to mention the fact that it was not longlisted for the Best Visual Effects prize, which was likely its only option.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The trailer doesn’t do the film many favors and coming hot off the huge numbers of The Jungle Book, I have my doubts that audiences will rally around a film that looks as if it might be a dud with critics.”
Box Office Results: $126.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Of the competing Tarzan films, it’s no surprise that the Warner Bros. version was outperformed by the Disney version. That said, it wasn’t nearly as far off that film as one might have predicted. Although it’s unlikely to spawn the franchise that either studio wanted, the end result was better than expected even if it barely broke even.

The Purge: Election Year

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. One of the few times where a sequel outperformed its predecessor was with Purge: Anarchy. I don’t think this sequel will be that lucky, but a healthy box office take is expected.”
Box Office Results: $79 M
Thoughts: [Success] The trilogy is now complete. I suspect that with this strong performance at the box office, the studio will be trying to come up with concepts to extend the series well beyond.

The Shallows

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The comparisons to Jaws have been sporadic, but nothing is likely to match that film’s blockbuster status. Still, the horror genre, especially with women in peril, has done well and while this isn’t a supernatural horror film, I suspect it will be a nice reprieve from the glut of such films in recent years.”
Box Office Results: $55.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] When you don’t expect much from a film, its decent box office performance suggests success. That the studio probably hoped for a bigger payday is immaterial.

July 8, 2016

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This looks to be a dud in the making. With films like Dirty Grandpa tanking at the box office, it’s not hard to imagine that a similar fate awaits this film. Especially with so much competition surrounding it along with the inevitable crappy reviews.”
Box Office Results: $46 M
Thoughts: [Flop]

The Secret Life of Pets

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. While I wouldn’t call this film a slam dunk nominee, I’d say it’s at least a contender. The problem it faces is the massive number of big efforts still to come this year and the surprising number of critical hits so far. That’s a level of competition we don’t often see before July.”
Oscar Results: The competition is strong and the film hasn’t secured the degree of support it needs in order to compete at the Oscars. I have no qualms predicting that the film will ultimatel be ignored.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The teaser trailer was a huge hit and remains one of the funniest trailers for an animated film this year (or even for last year). The studio has a long track record of box office hits and I suspect this will be one of the biggest for the genre this year.”
Box Office Results: $368 M
Thoughts: [Major Success]

July 15, 2016

Ghostbusters

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The original earned several nominations, but competition was less prohibitive then. Still, a solid reception from critics and terrific box office numbers should give the film a boost, especially if it has a new, memorable song in it…though, topping Ray Parker Jr’s theme will be nigh impossible.”
Oscar Results: Tepid box office receipts, no longlist placement for Best Visual Effects, and a dearth of support from critics groups pretty much cement the film’s non-Oscar potential.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Right now, there’s a lot of angry fans of the original who thinkin an all-female team will be a disaster and refuse to support it. However, I’ve seen plenty of strong support from others who want to take their daughters to see it, especially fans of the original. The biggest issue was that the first trailer wasn’t very good, nor have most of the subsequent trailers. The best trailer so far was an international one and, thanks to YouTube, can easily be seen by American audiences. Combine the talents of Paul Feig with the fantastic quartet of comediennes in the film and you have the potential for a huge hit as even naysayers might look at the reviews and put aside their sexist commentary to give the film a shot.”
Box Office Results: $128.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The marketing department screwed up on this one. There were already loyalists who were against the film from the start, but not enough was done to push the film as a broader comedy and get in non-fans to go with. So, instead of a runaway success, they had a mediocre success.

The Infiltrator

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. I don’t think anyone is talking about the film and, releasing wide the same weekend as Ghostbusters is a death knell if ever I heard one.”
Box Office Results: $15.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Did anyone expect this film to be a hit when it was positioned for a wide release in the summer?

Café Society (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has gotten decent reviews, which might be enough to give it a boost in the, so far, seemingly narrow Best Original Screenplay category. That said, Woody’s recent efforts haven’t been very successful.”
Oscar Results: Another year, another Woody Allen flop. There has been zero support for the Original Screenplay record holder and that should continue through Oscar season, even if the Writers Guild of America steps in and honors him with a nod.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. For a Woody Allen film, box office numbers are largely irrelevant. He’s had few unqualified hits and this film isn’t likely to win many converts. I think it could perform at the higher end of Woody’s recent box office performances, but not much better and likely a bit worse than predicted.”
Box Office Results: $11.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Woody Allen just doesn’t have the box office clout to be a hitmaker and since critics seem to agree that his filmography is more miss than hit in recent years, this is to be expected.

July 22, 2016

Ice Age: Collision Course

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The franchise has been consistently strong at the box office, but this film’s predecessor was the low-water mark and fatigue may finally be setting in. I suspect the film will do well, but not when compared to the prior films.”
Box Office Results: $64.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The movies were cash-generating machines in spite of becoming long in the (saber)tooth, but as the material becomes thinner and less inventive, the audience disappears. This will likely be the end of this franchise.

Lights Out

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The concept is fresh and the short film on which it’s based is fantastic; however, translating a short into a feature is not an easy task and either they will achieve solid results or it will pale in comparison so much that it flops.”
Box Office Results: $67.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] After the short film went viral, it was unsurprising that the film would do well at the box office, even if it bore little resemblance to the short it was based on.

Star Trek: Beyond

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The prior two films were each Oscar nominees, with the first in the reboot series bringing in (unfortunately), the series’ first Oscar win. Into Darkness didn’t do as well and the third film could prove even less successful, which would mean earning nothing.”
Oscar Results: Apart from Best Makeup and Hairstyling, the film has a decent shot at the two sound category nominations and a Best Visual Effects nomination, especially since it was longlisted.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The franchise has been doing well with the reboot and with this being the 50th anniversary, there will be a lot of publicity. However, Into Darkness lost $30 million off its predecessor’s massive total. I suspect fatigue may cause another solid drop, but that won’t prevent it form being successful.”
Box Office Results: $158.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The weakest performance of a film in the rebooted Star Trek universe, the writing may be on the wall. Audiences haven’t been as impressed with this franchise as the studios think and the consistent downward trend of the box office confirms that.

Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. As popular as the TV show was in its time, there’s little indication that a big screen outing was warranted and it’s certainly not going to be a box office juggernaut, hence the limited release. However, if fans give it a shot at the cinema, it could prove a decent specialty hit, especially if it has solid reviews behind it.”
Box Office Results: $4.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Who actually expected a long out of production comedy to be a box office draw. Just look at what happened with the recently out of production Veronica Mars.

July 29, 2016

Bad Moms

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Like the myriad other corny comedies this year (see Mike and Dave above), I see another potential box office bomb in the making.”
Box Office Results: $113.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] Sometimes, what you need is a good palate cleanser and this film seemed to be just that. After a series of lackluster films and few female-centric ones, this bawdy comedy was a godsend for many.

Jason Bourne

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Apart from a three nominations and wins The Bourne Ultimatum received, the rest of the films in the franchise have earned nothing. I suspect the same will be true of this film.”
Oscar Results: The film rose and then faded pretty fast after its box office run. I wouldn’t expect the kind of support the Bourne franchise once enjoyed.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The Bourne series had a rocky downturn with its fourth outing, the lowest grossing of the franchise. Without star Matt Damon, it wasn’t likely to succeed. Now that Damon is back, it’s possible that it surges, but I doubt it will get back to the $227 million peak. Brand faith may have taken a hit, so I’m predicting it will come in under the second installment, but could very easily top it with the right bounce.”
Box Office Results: $162.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] A franchise that keeps chugging along without finding a fresh approach, this film was a solid success.

Nerve

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Teen-targeted films haven’t been very popular of late and while this is a fascinating and modern concept, I don’t expect very much at all from the film.”
Box Office Results: $38.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] No one expected much from this dare-based thriller, but it performed well to those expectations, especially considering the paltry advertising that was done for it.