August 5, 2016

Nine Lives

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Family films have done fairly well this year, but this looks like a horrendously campy affair, which might hurts its potential. Opening against Suicide Squad is exactly that: suicide.”
Box Office Results: $19.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Did anyone not expect that thi film would be a dud? An obviously childish, corny premise played out at the box office precisely as one would have thought.

Suicide Squad

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: It currently stands poised to earn a Best Makeup & Hairstyling Oscar nomination (as one of the category’s 7 finalists), but its competition is strong, so it could be left off entirely.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The film is already doing excellent in terms of pre-sales, internet chatter is huge, and the film promises to be fun in the way Batman v. Superman was dour. I expect it to be a fairly decent hit.”
Box Office Results: $325.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Outperforming expectations, the second DC film of the year was a departure from the hero-oriented films of the past, which gave people a reason to check out, much like they did with Deadpool earlier in the year.

August 12, 2016

Florence Foster Jenkins

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “With its limited reception around the globe, Meryl Streep could still be a Best Actress contender, but critics and audiences will need to respond well to this film.”
Oscar Results: Neither critics nor audiences gave the film much of a boost; however, here we are in Oscar season with it poised for nominations in four or five categories from Meryl Streep in Best Actress to Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor to Production Design and Costume Design down to the shorlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling. I’d say it has a shot at most of those nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Strangely, Meryl Streep has been a solid box office performer even though she doesn’t fit in a narrow box of popularity. This film could do well on a weekend that doesn’t have a lot of promise.”
Box Office Results: $27.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was a box office failure. Although Streep can command a solid audience, the film’s period nature and the poor advertising done for the film ultimately killed its chances with audiences. Had they focused on the world’s worst opera singer element a little more forcefully, it might have done better.

Pete’s Dragon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The original film, a mixture of animation and live-action, earned nominations solely in the music department. I doubt this film will be as lucky and, considering the film’s perceived weaknesses, even Best Visual Effects will be a stretch.”
Oscar Results: It failed to make any of the Academy shortlists and has largely been forgotten.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Disney has been on a streak in the last few years with re-imaginings of their most famous properties. Those were animated films turned live-action. This was a partly-animated film to begin with and the dragon doesn’t look that much less animated. I expect that the trailer isn’t winning it fans and we’ll have another Disney live-action failure akin to their traditional failures and not their adaptation successes.”
Box Office Results: $76.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Making $76 million isn’t bad business, but when you’re Disney, it sure looks like a failure. The film wasn’t likely to sell to audiences that easily, thus its release in August, not long after the Disney juggernaut The Jungle Book graced screens.

Sausage Party

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Animated films outside of the computer animated realm aren’t always the most popular. A darker, more adult animated film won’t be able to pull in the type of box office people like Disney are accustomed to, but it could still do well with the stoner crowd.”
Box Office Results: $97.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Obviously the public has a need for raunchy comedies and Seth Rogen and his band of miscreants aim to provide that. The film saw strong box office results, closing just shy of $100 million, which is excellent for a non-kid-friendly animated film.

August 19, 2016

Ben-Hur

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first adaptation was made before the Oscars era. The second became the all-time most honored film with 11 Oscars. This time around, it would be lucky to get half that many nominations. With an action director at the helm and a lot of disinterest from those who don’t think it necessary to remake the classic, I wonder if the Academy will ignore it everywhere.”
Oscar Results: The original Ben-Hur adaptation was made before the Oscars. The second one, was not only a box office smash, but it became the most-honored Oscar winner in history taking 11 awards. This third adaptation has been a colossal failure both financially and in terms of Oscar potential.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. There will be comparisons to the Charlton Heston classic and they aren’t likely to be favorable. It seems expected that one of the most prominent religious-themed films in history would eventually follow the spate of religious films to the big screen. With an action spectacle director at the helm, it could do decently among religious types, but these are not the days of Ben-Hur any longer and its potential at the box office is significantly muted.”
Box Office Results: $26.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Religious films should do quite well at the box office, especialy one of this caliber. However, when you have a prior incarnation that’s legendary, remaking it seems to be pointless and audiences agreed, staying away in droves.

Kubo and the Two Strings

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Laika has a sterling record with the Academy earning nominations for every single one of its efforts. The competition this year will be incredibly strong, but from the looks of the trailer, which suggests bountiful artistry, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one locks up its nomination position early.”
Oscar Results: Not only is the film assured an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature, a feat that continues Laika’s amazing trend in the category, but it could also earn a nomination for Best Visual Effects, where the film is one of ten finalists on the shortlist. Whether the latter happens or not, there’s reason to believe that Kubo could be a player at the Oscars for a win, if Zootopia isn’t one of those films voters feel obligated to select.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Laika needs to do better at the box office. Their imaginative, creative worlds paired with their firm grip on balancing moral lessons and family-friendly adventure deserves to be widely seen and celebrated. Unfortunately, there seems to be a ceiling to this type of film and while the animation is impressive, I suspect it will be a moderate performer like all of their films have been.”
Box Office Results: $48 M
Thoughts: [Success] Finishing out about where expected, Kubo‘s performance is solid enough to be the highest grossing release from August 19…it beat out both Ben-Hur and War Dogs, two films expected to be far more popular than they were.

War Dogs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Semi-political comedies starring mid-level comedic talent have had their popularity, but it’s been largely middle-figure business. This doesn’t sound like it will have much of an impact on changing that narrative.”
Box Office Results: $43 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Jonah Hill’s star isn’t of sufficient wattage to make this corny premise a success. His co-star is even less familiar to audiences. The pair just didn’t have a chance without a much bigger name to pull people into the theater.

August 26, 2016

Don’t Breathe

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Some creative shifts in the horror genre have been rewarded in the past, but I’m not certain this will be the kind of twist that upends the genre.”
Box Office Results: $89.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This film turned out to be just the creative shift the industry wanted. A box office hit, the film was much better received than I anticipated, meaning perhaps more films with similar storylines.

Hands of Stone

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s releasing wide and stars Robert De Niro and follows the life of a prominent boxer. However, boxing films have an off-and-on relationship with audiences and the trailer makes the film seem like too much of a Rocky knock-off.”
Box Office Results: $4.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Boxing dramas sometimes fly, sometimes struggle at the box office. Even with Robert De Niro’s name attached, the film failed to ignite interest in audiences.

Mechanic: Resurrection

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. In hopes that Jason Statham has picked up a larger fan base after his high profile apperances in the Fast & Furious franchise and the film Spy are likely just wishful thinking. He’s never done well in solo efforts and the last weekend of August is not a prime playing ground for new releases, suggesting the studio doesn’t even have faith in the product.”
Box Office Results: $21.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The series may be over. After having appeared in the Fast & Furious franchise, many thought Jason Statham would be able to reliably bank attendee again. They were mistaken.