The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

June 5, 2015

Entourage

Premise: From IMDb: “Movie star Vincent Chase, together with his boys Eric, Turtle, and Johnny, are back – and back in business with super agent-turned-studio head Ari Gold.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. As Veronica Mars proved big screen adaptations of cult favorite shows don’t always do incredibly well at the box office. Of course, Sex and the City proves otherwise. Yet, for all its familiarity to HBO subscribers, Entourage doesn’t have the cachet to be another Sex and the City, though without free digital copies to weigh it down, it should do quite a bit better than Veronica Mars.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Insidious Chapter 3

Premise: From IMDb: “A prequel set before the haunting of the Lambert family that reveals how gifted psychic Elise Rainier reluctantly agrees to use her ability to contact the dead in order to help a teenage girl who has been targeted by a dangerous supernatural entity.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The first film was a modest horror success. The second film outpaced it by more than $29 million. Can a prequel do better than the sequel? I doubt it. However, I suspect the third film will end up just north of the first entry in the franchise.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Spy

Premise: From IMDb: “A desk-bound CIA analyst volunteers to go undercover to infiltrate the world of a deadly arms dealer, and prevent diabolical global disaster.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. Spy comedies can either be wildly successful or colossal failures and there isn’t much in between. With Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig teaming up again, this one seems to be moving towards the wild side, which could mean a pretty hefty payout. Still, McCarthy hasn’t commanded very much on solo outings and usually has to have a big name co-star to sell it. This film doesn’t have that.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Love & Mercy (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In the 1960s, Beach Boys leader Brian Wilson loses his grip on reality as he attempts to craft his avant-garde pop masterpiece. In the 1980s, he is a broken and confused man under the 24-hour watch of shady therapist Dr. Eugene Landy.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Successful biopics on legendary musicians are a tough sell to audiences. Fans of the individuals being covered show up en masse, but no one else seems to care. The best recent example was Get On Up a biopic on James Brown that had an Oscar campaign going at the time of its release. It managed a mere $30 million in spite of Brown being a fairly noteworthy artist. While the Beach Boys are questionably more famous, it’s an independent film that doesn’t have any major stars to sell the hell out of it.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Those who’ve seen it say it’s very good. Yet, the buzz surrounding the film still hasn’t materialized, which may mean it is completely ignored eight months from now.

June 12, 2015

Jurassic World

Premise: From IMDb: “Twenty-two years after the events of Jurassic Park (1993), Isla Nublar now features a fully functioning dinosaur theme park, Jurassic World, as originally envisioned by John Hammond. After 10 years of operation and visitor rates declining, in order to fulfill a corporate mandate, a new attraction is created to re-spark visitor’s interest, which backfires horribly.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Good. There’s zero chance the film approaches the first film’s tally, but topping the second film should be a bit easier. Stiff competition might hurt the film, but Chris Pratt seems to be on a hot streak and it could very well come close to the first film even if inflation adjustment makes the two seem galaxies apart.
Oscar Prospects: Good. The first two films in the franchise received Oscar nominations. The first film won all three that it was nominated for (Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects). The second film was only up for Best Visual Effects, which it lost. Enough time has gone by to give the franchise a chance at Oscar redemption, but it will likely only compete in the three categories the original film did and none of them are likely to result in a win this time out.

Me and Early and the Dying Girl (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A teenage filmmaker befriends a classmate with cancer.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Good. It’s classified as a drama, but with this kind of title, it’s sure to pique the interests of those expecting a kind of dark comedy. With excellent reviews and buzz coming out of the festival circuit, it could do quite well at the specialty box office.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Festivals have helped plenty of small efforts claim Oscar nominations, but this may not have the level of support it needs to make that happen. However, it’s Fox Searchlight behind it, so it should get a push and if the rest of the competition this year is a bit weak, it could end up a contender.

June 19, 2015

Dope

Premise: From IMDb: “A coming of age comedy/drama for the post hip hop generation. Malcolm is a geek, carefully surviving life in The Bottoms, a tough neighborhood in Inglewood, CA filled gangsters and drugs dealers, while juggling his senior year of college applications, interviews and the SAT. His dream is to attend Harvard. A chance invitation to a big underground party leads Malcolm and his friends into a, only in Los Angeles, gritty adventure filed with offbeat characters and bad choices. If Malcolm can persevere, he’ll go from being a geek, to being dope, to ultimately being himself.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. One of several films this summer hoping to tap into younger audiences. However, no manner of advertising will turn this concept into a box office hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Inside Out

Premise: From IMDb: “After a girl moves to a new home, her emotions are plunged into chaos as they compete for control of her mind.”
Box Office Prospects: $270 M
Expectations: Excellent. With the exception of three films (two of which came very close), every Pixar film has handily topped the $200 million threshold (with inflation, Cars is the only one that hasn’t). Fewer, only six, have topped $250 million (considering inflation, that number increases to 11, all but three films). Yet, of the ones that managed that feat, they were all more kid-friendly pics, making it very likely that Inside Out enters that smaller group.
Oscar Prospects: Good. While it’s uncertain if the film will enter the Best Picture race or not, it’s assured a Best Animated Feature nomination and, considering this year’s competition, a win is all but assured at this point. It could show in a couple of other categories, including Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, but it’s the Best Picture and Best Original Screneplay races that remain its toughest challenges.

June 26, 2015

Max

Premise: From IMDb: “A dog that helped US Marines in Afghanistan returns to the U.S. and is adopted by his handler’s family after suffering a traumatic experience.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There aren’t many examples out there of this type of film, so it’s very hard to find a reasonable model. However, the concept may appeal to some, but I doubt it’s enough to make it a huge hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Outskirts

Premise: From IMDb: “After falling victim to a humiliating prank by the high school Queen Bee, best friends and world-class geeks, Mindy and Jodi, decide to get their revenge by uniting the outcasts of the school against her and her circle of friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: The High School comedy genre has produced few out-and-out hits. This one hasn’t had a lot of advertising done to date and while it might appeal to the Mean Girls crowd, I doubt it will find the breadth of that original audience.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Ted 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Newlywed couple Ted and Tami-Lynn want to have a baby, but in order to qualify to be a parent, Ted will have to prove he’s a person in a court of law.”
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: Good. I expect the film to do incredibly well, but whether it can approach its predecessor’s $218 million tally is unlikely. While 22 Jump Street proved that comedy sequels can easily out-gross their predecessors, that film is more an anomaly than a rule as The Hangover franchise can attest.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Even though the first film nabbed a surprise Best Original Song nomination, don’t expect that to happen again.