January 2, 2015

The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The Woman in Black was a decent horror hit in 2012, but it’s been three years since that film came out and part of its sale was star Daniel Radcliffe who isn’t in this sequel. It may still perform adequately as haunted house horror does, but it won’t top its predecessor easily.”
Box Office Results: $26.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without Daniel Radcliffe and no credible connection to the original, the sequel failed to attract much of an audience, even without major new competition.

A Most Violent Year

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This is a 2014 candidate. Jessica Chastain has been on my shortlist for much of the year for her supporting performance in this film. Oscar Isaac seems to be well liked, but faces far too much competition to push through. The film could make appearances in a handful of categories, but I suspect Chastain may be its only mention.”
Oscar Results: Even Chastain wasn’t to be as the film’s late release kept it off the radar for too long and critics generally went other directions even when they did cite her.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The premise doesn’t sound like something audiences would rush right out and see, yet the critics might bolster the film’s chances among Oscar aficionados believing it could be nominated. Yet, ultimately I think it will do modest business, but never quite catch on with the general public.”
Box Office Results: $5.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Never a film that was going to be a box office hit, even this total for an Oscar contender is less than expected.

January 9, 2015

Taken 3

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The first two films made more than $130 million at the box office. sequel fatigue didn’t hit the second film much, but it was off its predecessor. The far-fetched stretching the producers are doing to shoehorn this new film might stretch credulity a bit much. It will still be pretty big, but it will take a steeper drop from the second film than its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $89.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] After a pair of huge successes, the final film in the “Taken Trilogy” did well, but not nearly as well in comparison to its predecessor confirming that it was time for the franchise to shuffle off.

January 16, 2015

Blackhat

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Michael Mann hasn’t been much of an Oscar competitor in recent years. With the January release, I doubt he’ll be remembered by year’s end.”
Oscar Results: No great box office, weak response from critics. This one isn’t a player.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Director Michael Mann has a surprisingly strong box office track record and this film falls in a period where carefully crafted action thrillers can perform well. However, I don’t think it will be an outsized hit.”
Box Office Results: $7.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even with Chris Hemsworth attached, audiences just weren’t that interested in a film about hacking.

Paddington

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The Academy doesn’t typically care about family films as it stands, but ones that are scheduled for Christmas releases and then bumped into the New Year already smell like failures, so no one will even remember it was released eleven months later.”
Oscar Results: Even with the surprisingly strong reviews from critics, there’s little chance that the Academy will pay attention to this one.
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Moved out of its cushy pre-Christmas release, the film must have serious quality issues to find itself lodged in the family fare dead zone of January.”
Box Office Results: $75.99 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Far outperformins expectations, it’s clear that family auds really wanted something to check into and confirms that this could have been a pretty big Christmas hit had the studios had more faith in it.

The Wedding Ringer

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While more recent releases haven’t been as successful, the wedding genre, especially comedies, have been fertile ground for studios over the years and the pure outlandishness of this concept may be enough to turn it into a hit. That and the fact that there’s very little humor available at this point in the year.”
Box Office Results: $64.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] My expectations were met, which isn’t to say this was a hit. The studios likely wanted something bigger and audiences only partially responded to it.

Still Alice (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This is a 2014 contender. Julianne Moore is the oft-nominated actress who everyone in Hollywood seems to think should have an Oscar but doesn’t. She should have won twice before now, but blend the juicy role with her never-won status and she’s become something of a juggernaut. If she can steamroll through the precursor awards, or at least perform exceptionally well, it may be hers to lose.”
Oscar Results: The precursors weren’t all lined up, but her frontrunner status never let up and she seemed to coast to a victory at the Oscars. The rest of the film was a no-show.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. In spite of this being a frontrunner for Best Actress Julianne Moore, the prospects of the film becoming a box office hit are minimal. The dreary subject matter won’t pique much interest outside of Oscar fans completing their viewing lists, so if it becomes a hit, I think it will be a surprise to everyone.”
Box Office Results: $18.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] With her presence as an Oscar nominee (and later winner), the film significantly outperformed expectations, though it never became a cross-over hit.

January 23, 2015

The Boy Next Door

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Jennifer Lopez has had hits, but she’s mostly had duds, which this one could very well turn into. It’s not releasing in a window that makes much sense, so a box office victory would be surprising even as counter-programming to Mortdecai.”
Box Office Results: $35.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It beat expectations, but it didn’t do much beyond that. Jennifer Lopez isn’t a box office star and she’s certainly not having hits.

Mortdecai

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Having come off a recent streak of poorly reviewed films, Johnny Depp still has a firm grasp on box office. His weakest performers typically pass $50 million with a handful of true duds otherwise. This one plays into his zany wheelhouse well, but that didn’t help either Dark Shadows or The Lone Ranger become unqualified hits.”
Box Office Results: $7.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The big surprise of the weekend wasn’t how poorly Mortdecai did with critics, it certainly wasn’t going to win many fans, but the fact that Johnny Depp’s film fizzled at the box office that that had people shocked. Even a modest-sized hit might have staved off concerns, but this was a colossal failure, never even surpassing $10 million, which should have been easy for something like this.

Strange Magic

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Disney’s going to have Pixar’s Inside Out to plug for this year’s Oscars, but it won’t have one of its own productions until 2016. That means they’ll have some spare resources to push this film, but if it tanks at the box office or with critics, they’ll leave it hanging out to dry.”
Oscar Results: No support from critics. No love at the box office. This film is dead in the water.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Disney typically has luck with computer animated fantasies, but they don’t always have luck with non-prime release windows. Typically, January and February have alternating success and failure track records for animated films. They still make decent money, but not always the level of money Disney has typically enjoyed. The film, however, isn’t produced by Disney and is directed by longtime visual effects wizard Gary Rydstrom for Industrial Light and Magic. Whether it can pique the interest of Star Wars fanboys or not may determine just how high it can fly.”
Box Office Results: $12.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not every animated film can be a hit. However, Disney seldom churns out disappointments unless it’s the latest incarnation of direct-to-video releases. Still, this is even poor by those standards.

Mommy (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the film has been labeled as difficult to sell, it’s one of the most prominent foreign language films in the race this year. It won’t likely get the support of regular voters, but a couple of slots on the shortlist are typically chosen by the board who picks less broadly friendly films to include so their lists don’t look like they are entirely disconnected from reality. Those films still don’t have a guarantee of nomination, but they have a better shot of being seen in a field of 9 or 11 films rather than in a group of 83.”
Oscar Results: Oscar voters just didn’t engage with this critically acclaimed film and it failed to even show up on the shortlist, which was a major blow to the film.
Box Office Prediction: $500 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Foreign language films, especially indies, just don’t have the kind of clout necessary to become box office hits, even on at the specialty box office. With an Oscar nomination, it could do satisfactory business, but as last year’s nominees for Best Foreign Language film, only two topped $500K and one topped $2.8 million.”
Box Office Results: $3.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Even without support from the Oscars, it managed to do fairly well at the specialty box office. It may not have been an exceptional grosser, but still performed quite well.

January 30, 2015

Project Almanac

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Another teen-targeted sci-fi/superhero kind of film built on a shoestring budget with no-name actors hoping to draw disaffected teens to the box office. If it’s much of a hit, it will be a surprise.”
Box Office Results: $22.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A dime a dozen is not an expression used likely, but when films start blending together in terms of their subject matters, it’s no surprise that they don’t do well with audiences and this is a perfect example.

Timbuktu (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Mauritania is a first-time submitter to the Oscars, which won’t give its film any foundation to lobby an effective campaign. It will have to be beloved by those who watch it to make it through.”
Oscar Results: The film had a very passionate following going into Oscar season and it was predicted by a number of prognosticators to be one of the surefire nominees and it was. A win was out of the question, but getting nominated was impressive.
Box Office Prediction: $100 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Another foreign language film that isn’t likely to light up the box office. This one doesn’t have the pedigree or accessibility of something like Mommy, so it will require Oscar attention to even get close to this prediction..”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not a box office juggernaut, but for a tiny film like this from a country most audiences have never heard of, it’s a rather impressive figure.