February 6, 2015

Jupiter Ascending

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film certainly has the look of a film that would compete in numerous tech categories, but most movies that release in February or quickly and easily forgotten by the time Oscar nominations roll around. Should the film impress critics and do superb box office, it might have a chance of being remembered, but I doubt either will be the case.”
Oscar Results: Without the bump of a huge box office and critics roundly ignoring it, there’s no doubt the film will be utterly ignored.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While the film has gotten pushed back, likely because it isn’t that good, the trailers have been very exciting and anyone wanting to catch the Wachowski’s at their sci-fi action roots will want to check the film out. With little else of note on the horizon, it could do well.”
Box Office Results: $47.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The Wachowski’s continue their losing streak, meaning their hit Netflix series may be the only thing keeping them afloat as filmmakers.

Seventh Son

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Counter-programming a sci-fi film with a fantasy film seems like cutting off your own nose to spite your face. This film has been pushed back once already. It doesn’t sound like anyone has confidence in it and other than fans of the source material, I can’t imagine it topping Jupiter Ascending.”
Box Office Results: $17.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It had been rescheduled once (almost a year), so it’s no surprise that the film wasn’t going to be able to find an audience and it didn’t.

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The first SpongeBob movie, eleven years ago, made around $85 million at the box office. The show was then at the height of its popularity. While it still has its fans, I doubt they are as excited about seeing another big screen outing, though I could be surprised.”
Box Office Results: $162.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It’s surprising to know that SpongeBob fans are still as vociferous as ever turning this into one of the biggest February hits ever.

February 13, 2015

Fifty Shades of Grey

Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The film is poised to leverage its massive book audience into box office gold. Releasing over Valentine’s Day is sure to increase attendance and turn this into one of the bigger romantic drama hits in recent years.”
Box Office Results: $166.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] It didn’t quite reach my expectations, but this tally is nothing to shake a stick at. The sequels will be every bit as popular while earning snide comments and poor marks from critics.

Kingsman: The Secret Service

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Traditional spy thrillers can do incredibly well at the box office. However, this film isn’t a very traditional narrative and skews younger in its potential demographic, which might hinder its potential for strong performance.”
Box Office Results: $128.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] This one took everyone a bit by surprise. Everyone was certain Fifty Shades of Grey would be huge, but no one really anticipated a small, flashy film about British Extra-Secret Service agents to go over this well. It did, far surpassing expectations.

February 20, 2015

The DUFF

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Teen-targeted dramas and comedies set in high school are a hit-or-miss proposition with more missing than hitting. Yet, obviously the studio has some measure of confidence in the film to be releasing it wide.”
Box Office Results: $34.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not a terrible performance, but considering the desire of its studio and producers, it should have made more money.

Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film was a small hit for MGM five years ago. The problem is that sequels that occur so far after the original aired are struggling to perform in recent years. As such, I wouldn’t expect it to do much better than its predecessor and more likely do a little bit worse.”
Box Office Results: $12.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Further proof that not all sleeper hits with cult followings on the home video charts can turn a sequel into a smash hit.

McFarland, USA

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “As Disney’s Jon Hamm starrer Million Dollar Arm proved last year, family dramas about sports successes against adversity don’t typically perform well at the box office. It if can tap into a sizable audience interested in cross-country runners, it might do well. I wouldn’t count on it, though.”
Box Office Results: $44.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Disney keeps chugging along with this type of film, neither excelling or succumbing to the weight of expectations.

Wild Tales (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Making the Oscar nomination slate is likely its own reward. To compete against the likes of Ida and Leviathan isn’t an easily-surmountable position.”
Oscar Results: The Oscars didn’t quite go for it, which was completely expected.
Box Office Prediction: $500 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Like most foreign language films, this one doesn’t have the right level of cultural significance to draw mass audiences to the theater. Unless it wins the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, it’s likely not to earn very much at all.”
Box Office Results: $3.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a small foreign language film with only a single Oscar nomination for support, this picture did surprisingly well at the specialty box office.

February 27, 2015

Focus

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Even at his weakest, Will Smith still commands decent attendance at the box office. Other than two films in the last ten years (After Earth and Seven Pounds), all of his films have topped $100 million by a fairly wide margin. The reason I think this one will fail to live up to such expectations is that the film hasn’t gotten nearly enough advertising and remains one of the big question marks of the year. Releasing a film like this so far after Valentine’s Day is sure to diminish its potential.”
Box Office Results: $53.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While I suggested poor performance would be due to poor advertising, the more I think about it, the more I think that Smith’s star has faded and people won’t just stop everything to catch him in a movie. This seemed like the perfect film to rely on his bankability.

The Lazarus Effect

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Although the film shares slight similarities to 1990’s Flatliners, the film’s lack of heavy advertising and distinct horror-alignment will likely have an adverse effect on its chances. It could still be a hit, but I’m doubtful.”
Box Office Results: $25.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Horror vehicles outside the norm just aren’t firing on all cylinders these days and audiences appear to be catching onto that.

’71 (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Foreign imports, even ones in English, just don’t click with U.S. audiences, especially ones about a war Americans haven’t heard much about.”
Box Office Results: $1.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] On par with expectations, this modest specialty performer did well.

Maps to the Stars (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It wasn’t eligible for this year’s Oscars, though some groups nominated it for their awards without a U.S. release. Those who say Julianne Moore’s performance is spectacular also say the film just isn’t something the Academy would cozy up to. Releasing so far before the new Oscars suggests the film will be quickly forgotten, though Moore may not have to worry about that with her impending performance in Freeheld already jumping to lips as a potential back-to-back win for the actress (if she wins this year, that is).”
Oscar Results: The film seems to have dropped off most lists of predictions. Releasing so early in the year isn’t helpful.
Box Office Prediction: $500 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. David Cronenberg just isn’t a box office draw and positioned2015 Spring Season Preview: February in limited release in one of the worst months for such releases won’t help the film do much business.”
Box Office Results: $350.7 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even with the likes of Julianne Moore, you can’t expect people to show up for films like this without some serious hype, which the film didn’t have.