November 6, 2015

The Outskirts

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Teen-centric films are hit-or-miss, but mostly miss. Will this film buck the tradition? That it hasn’t been well advertised yet, suggests it probably won’t.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was pulled from the release schedule.

The Peanuts Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the film could be a flop with critics, I doubt it will be. If it is, its Oscar chances vanish. If it’s decently well received, it should pull enough appreciation for the source material to be a player for a nomination.”
Oscar Results: It certainly was a player, but it was a tight race and, ultimately, it failed to make the final five.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Computer animation is big and even mediocre films tend to do well. However, converting a 2D comic strip into a 3D movie has plenty of challenges and it will have to be perfectly constructed and written to really engender love among the many “Peanuts” fans out there.”
Box Office Results: $130.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While a $130 million total is nothing to laugh at, the total seems rather dismal compared to what it should have been considering the positive response from critics.

Spectre

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Skyfall became the first Bond film to win Oscars. Most other films in the genre fair poorly and with the zeitgeist moment the prior film created, it’s possible it was a one-off. A handful of nominations is possible, but I doubt it will do as incredibly well as Skyfall.”
Oscar Results: Apart from its disappointing win for Best Original Song, the film did poorly at the Oscars. The Original Song nomination was its only one.
Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While Skyfall was a huge hit at the box office, other recent outings suggest a more moderate level of success for this film. Will residual good will from Skyfall make this a bigger hit than others in recent memory? Maybe, but I don’t think it will help that much. It will be very hard to build on the success of its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $200.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Clearly fans of the Bond franchise will turn out even when critics are indifferent. Whether this is residual good will from the prior film or a the new starting point for box office numbers for the franchise will be determined by the next film.

Spotlight (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Early word is that this is one of the best films about journalism ever, which gives it some room to maneuver in the Oscar race this year. A topical subject and familiar actors working at the top of their game could be a genuine contender for several awards.”
Oscar Results: Although it seemed like it was stumbling into the home stretch, it managed to pull out a Best Picture victory, but along with its Best Original Screenplay Oscar, the film became the first film in over 60 years to score only two Oscars with Best Picture included.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Even if it becomes the frontrunner for the Oscars, the film still will struggle for acceptance in the marketplace. This type of film just doesn’t ignite enthusiasm from audiences anymore. Long gone are the days of All the President’s Men and Broadcast News.”
Box Office Results: $44.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] In spite of its Best Picture win, the film didn’t manage to become a huge hit. Still, it’s solid numbers are emblematic of a specialty box office hit.

Trumbo (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film hasn’t generated much heat, which means it’s probably not much of a contender. It has an excellent cast and is about an era of Hollywood history that is looked back on with some frustration, but that’s not going to be enough to sway Oscar voters. Even the older ones will want a good movie, which there’s no indication this will be one yet.”
Oscar Results: With a great ad campaign behind it, Trumbo managed to secure its star an Oscar nomination for Best Actor. That was it, though. The film’s mediocre reviews sunk it from most of the competition, but residual love of Bryan Cranston gave him just the boost he needed to get the nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. If journalism has faded as a serious competitor in the marketplace, films about Hollywood are even more difficult to market. The last real success at the box office was L.A. Confidential, which managed $64 million at the box office (adjusted to $116 million). That’s largely due to a huge marketing push after it swept the critics’ awards and became a big Oscar competitor. That doesn’t seem like the kind of situation Trumbo will face, so don’t expect much.”
Box Office Results: $7.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film didn’t earn a lot of strong notices from critics and apart from the boost the film received from the awards cycle, it didn’t quite meat expectations.

November 13, 2015

The 33

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. I once thought this film, with its penchant for inciting audience waterworks might be a big contender at the Oscars, it’s been so inconspicuous in its advertising that I’m beginning to believe the film may not be good enough.”
Oscar Results: Reviews weren’t great and the film was almost comatose at the box office, so the lack of Oscar traction isn’t surprising.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While certain Spanish-language films have performed very well with Hispanic audiences, ones in English have not. This falls into that category, yet not exactly. While the subject revolves around Chilean miners, it has a very Hollywood style gloss to it that reminds of films from the 1980s. Will it be one that draws an audience, I doubt it.”
Box Office Results: $12.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] You would think that a film with such potential to evoke the audience’s emotions that it would have been able to do better at the box office. Unfortunately, it seems that the film’s critics weren’t that impressed.

By the Sea

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. At the beginning of the season, everyone though Unbroken would be a major contender and might nab Angelina Jolie a Best Director nomination on top of it all. However, critics weren’t impressed even if audiences were, which kept it from rallying much support with the Academy. It still picked up three Oscar nominations, but they were all in creative categories. This time around, her film hasn’t been seen and no one is certain if this will be a reverse of course from her prior failure or a new direction. We shall see.”
Oscar Results: Critics weren’t impressed and without a box office-capable narrative, it’s chances were pretty much destroyed.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Few romantic comedies are box office smashes, but this one certainly could be. After Angelina Jolie’s prior to directorial efforts were a flop and a wild success respectively, she’s now paired with husband Brad Pitt and the two of them are sure to generate interest in the public eye. How big a hit remains to be seen, but I’m leaning towards decently successful at this juncture.”
Box Office Results: $538 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Without the support of critics, the films chances bottomed out and starting on a small release scale pretty much doomed its chances.

Love the Coopers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: No surprise here.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the combination of stellar cast and holiday excitement might be a recipe for success, a lot of similar films haven’t been so well received in recent years. The Family Stone might be the best comparison with its $60 million tally ten years ago. With inflation adjustments, it wouldn’t match my current prediction, but Ed Helms has had a string of successes with only the Vacation remake a recent disappointment.”
Box Office Results: $26.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film didn’t exactly implode at the box office, but it didn’t perform very well, which might help sink the idea that holiday-themed films can always find some audience around the holidays.

My All American

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Did we expect anything more?
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Inspirational sports dramas are only inspirational to studio executives, because audiences just aren’t that impressed with them. Few have become major hits and fewer still have managed better than average returns. This one doesn’t look like it will buck the trend.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Disney has had a very difficult time marketing its inspirational sports dramas of late and this may be the nadir for them, a colossal bomb of a box office performance.

Heist (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Did anyone actually see the film?
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. How can you go wrong with Robert De Niro? By releasing your heist film in limited venues hoping to build word of mouth. Films that don’t open wide in this genre tend to underperform those that do. If it was truly a quality film, we’d be seeing it in wide release. Ergo, I doubt it will do much business.”
Box Office Results: $50 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] I don’t think anyone actually saw this film and it has to be considered a major low point for all involved.

November 20, 2015

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: The series came up entirely empty.
Box Office Prediction: $450 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The first two films in the franchise topped $400 million easily, but part 1 of the finale significantly underperformed. That should be rectified this time around. How far above $400 it goes is anyone’s guess, but based on past performance of franchise-capping films, it’s very likely the film soars well past the second film and tops all of them.”
Box Office Results: $281.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Bucking the tradition of final chapters outperforming their predecessors is true, but even this once-huge franchise struggled to make solid money in its final outing, largely thanks to having its final chapter split between two films.

The Night Before

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: The term is “bupkis.”
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The slacker subgenre has done solid business the last few years and with the tropes being applied to a holiday film, it should continue the trend. Whether it’s a bigger hit than predicted remains to be seen.”
Box Office Results: $43.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While not performing nearly as badly as Love the Coopers, the holiday box office was incredibly weak with countless box office performances far under expectations. This was one of them.

Secret in Their Eyes

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The Spanish-language film on which this movie was based was an Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film for Argentina. Of course, the Academy can’t recognize this one there and the film has an upward battle against serious prestige pictures in the offing for later this year. It could nab some support, but I doubt it will make much headway unless it’s a qualified critical success.”
Oscar Results: The critics weren’t entirely supportive and the audiences didn’t seem to care, so Oscar voters ignored it.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It could be a big hit. It could be a big flop. Trailers haven’t been very effective and the buzz surrounding the film has been minimal so far. In the next month, this could improve, but based on the talent involved, I’m predicting a modest performance.”
Box Office Results: $20.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] There’s often a hue and a cry over how critics try to hurt box office performance rather than reflecting how the film is perceived by audiences. That’s seldom the truth for major blockbusters, but for smaller, less visible films like this one, a lack of support from critics can be a hindrance.

Carol (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. Todd Haynes’ third film, Velvet Goldmine, picked up a single nomination at the Oscars. His fourth, Far From Heaven, took four nominations. His fifth film only garnered one. Now, his sixth big screen outing, an unqualified success at Cannes earlier this year, is sure to compete in several categories and may result in his largest number of nominations to date. The problem is, his films have so far gone home empty-handed. It’s possible that Rooney Mara breaks that logjam for him, but it’s only if she’s nominated in Best Supporting Actress, a case of category fraud if there ever was one. The film could earn wins in some creative categories, but ultimately its best shot remains with Mara.”
Oscar Results: With six nominations, Haynes had his best year ever, but in spite of plenty of precursors that suggested a Best Picture nomination would be forthcoming, it failed to hit the 10% threshold for a nomination. Without a Best Picture nod, voters may not have felt the need to give it a prize and Rooney Mara ultimately lost out to another category-fraudster and she was certainly the film’s best shot.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. This type of film doesn’t do well at the general box office, but typically performs excellently at the specialty box office. With Oscar attention, the film will climb higher than it might otherwise, but it still won’t get as high as it probably deserves.”
Box Office Results: $12.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Thanks to a failure to obtain the degree of Oscar acclaim many suspected, the film didn’t quite earn its due respect at the box office. It even failed to top Haynes’ previous high water mark, Far from Heaven. That film pulled in just over $15 million back in 2002. This is clearly a disappointment for all concerned.

Legend (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. At one point, Tom Hardy was considered a strong contender for a Best Actor nomination, possibly even a win, for his dual performance in the film. However, coming out of the festival circuit, the film seems to have faded quickly, meaning it’s unlikely to produce much Oscar consideration unless critics groups line up behind it.”
Oscar Results: Tom Hardy didn’t manage to sneak a nomination for this film, though he did make it in for a different film.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Tom Hardy has no box office guarantee and the film doesn’t look like something mass audiences will watch unless it earns a lot of praise. Since the festivals generated very muted buzz, I doubt it will do that well.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] With no support from critics and no Oscar push, the film didn’t really have a chance at the box office.

November 25, 2015

Creed

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The original film was an Oscar winner for Best Picture. None of the subsequent films have been other than the odd Best Original Song nomination. While I wouldn’t expect this film to match the original, if it’s any good, critics could help bolster high box office and an attempt to get it recognized in Best Picture or even Best Actor.”
Oscar Results: Critics most certainly did bolster the film and it was doing quite well in the December critics prizes, but as January rolled around, the film missed more often than it hit and managed to snag only a single nomination for Best Supporting Actor, which it lost, though the competition was tight.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The Rocky franchise is a strong performer, but without that character in the title and only in a supporting role, it might be harder to convince people to turn out, just love they didn’t seem to love Stallone’s last outing in the franchise.”
Box Office Results: $109.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Topping $100 million at the box office is an achievement, but if you look back across the history of the franchise, nothing can top the or its first three sequels, which all did massive box office business, each adjusting for inflation for more than $295 million. This tally doesn’t quite seem so great. However, it was a new lead character and that may have accounted for some of the box office reluctance. It still outperformed the fifth Rocky film and Stallone’s abortive resurrection of his own persona Rocky Balboa.

The Good Dinosaur

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Inside Out is Pixar’s ace in the hole this year and no other film has a chance of toppling it for the win. Disney will certainly get this film nominated, but a win is out of the question and if they aren’t careful and critics hate it, it could miss Best Animated Feature altogether.”
Oscar Results: While critics didn’t hate it, they weren’t as jazzed up about it as they have been most new Pixar features. That weakness manifested in a failed attempt to crack the Best Animated Feature category, losing its slot to one of the two GKids submissions.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Pixar has a sterling track record, but they’ve usually released films in the Summer. This time out, they are releasing their second film this year and it’s the much-delayed The Good Dinosaur. A lot has been written about the bizarre mix of childish animation and beautiful background designs. The dichotomy could be enough to keep it from soaring, but if it’s even slightly good, it could still perform well.”
Box Office Results: $123.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The mediocre box office didn’t help the film with Oscar, proving that even a holiday release of a poorly advertised and weakly reviewed Pixar film can’t always perform well at the box office. Not only is it the first Pixar film to fail to cross the $150 million box office threshold, when adjusted for inflation, it’s more than $75 million behind the nearest competitor (Cars 2). It couldn’t even tap into Thanksgiving business to become a bigger hit.

Victor Frankenstein

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. If it’s any good, it could be a contender in several creative categories. Beyond that, its chances are slim.”
Oscar Results: Apparently, it wasn’t good and the thrashing the critics gave it doomed it to obscurity.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s a small audience for period horror films and even more limited one for horror comedy. That this looks a decent amount like the box office mediocrity of Dracula Untold, I suspect it could perform about on par with that film.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] For an ambitious project with big names released for Thanksgiving holiday, this wide release result is supremely awful.

November 27, 2015

The Danish Girl (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. If this film had been released by Harvey Weinstein, we’d be talking about a serious Oscar contender. In Focus Features’ hands, it’s not as prominent a contender. The festival buzz has been muted outside of Eddie Redmayne’s and Alicia Vikander’s performances, so it could merit inclusion in Best Actor and Best Actress. Its best chances are in the creative categories, like Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.”
Oscar Results: Vikander was bumped to support in one of the most shameless bits of category fraud we’ve seen, so she not only managed to get the nod, but she won (being one of only two leads in the category certainly helped). Redmayne netted his second consecutive nomination, but came nowhere close to winning. The film didn’t appear anywhere else in the major categories, but it did pick up the aforementioned Best Production Design and Best Costume Design for a total of four nods.
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If marketed correctly, it could do slightly worse business than The Imitation Game. However, it’s also possible it performs as poorly as The Theory of Everything.”
Box Office Results: $11.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not only could it not muster Imitation Game numbers, it failed to make even half of what Theory of Everything did. This just goes to show you how different studios can get different numbers wrung out of their box office contenders.

I Saw the Light (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Apart from the limited attention Tom Hiddleston has gotten for a potential Best Actor bid, the film hasn’t been on anyone’s tongues, so it probably doesn’t have much hope unless it ends up being a critical smash. Since the post-Toronto response wasn’t great, don’t count on it.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Music biopics aren’t catnip for audiences and although Hank Williams is well renowned, a film based on his life doesn’t seem as solid a performer as one might have expected back in the 1980’s.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was pulled from the release schedule.