The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

September 4, 2015

The Transporter Refueled

Premise: From IMDb: “A reboot of the story of transporter Frank Martin.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Why this franchise, which has had one box office disappointment after another, still manages to get films made is a question only a money-hungry studio can understand.
Oscar Prospects: None.

A Walk in the Woods

Premise: From IMDb: “After spending two decades in England, Bill Bryson returns to the U.S., where he decides the best way to connect with his homeland is to hike the Appalachian Trail with one of his oldest friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. The film may have some big names in it, but the Labor Day weekend release doesn’t help get it attention and the critics aren’t likely to bolster it either.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Before We Go (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A young woman in New York City races to catch the 1:30 Train to Boston. On the way she is robbed.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 K
Expectations: Weak. The film hasn’t earned a lot of attention and seems to keep getting pushed down the release pipeline, which suggests the Labor Day weekend release is just a place to dump it without relevance.
Oscar Prospects: None.

September 11, 2015

The Perfect Guy

Premise: From IMDb: “After a painful breakup, successful lobbyist Leah Vaughn (Sanaa Lathan) jumps into a passionate relationship with a charming stranger (Michael Ealy). When her ex-boyfriend (Morris Chestnut) resurfaces in her life she has to figure out who she should trust and who she should fear.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Films targeted black audiences have been rather anemic recently. This is after a string of box office disappointments, including from typical stalwart Tyler Perry. Perhaps the slow down will help this one perform well, and against this kind of competition, that’s an entirely possible situation/
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Visit

Premise: From IMDb: “A single mother finds that things in her family’s life go very wrong after her two young children visit their grandparents.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. His biggest hit in the last decade was successful in spite of itself, largely because of the subject matter. Even Will Smith couldn’t sell the polished turd that was After Earth. Still, studios seem to continue to invest in M. Night Shyamalan, so he sold his soul to the right devil. It’s possible the film is big, but with so little information out there about it, niche audiences might be the only ones who give it a shot.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Time Out of Mind (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A homeless man tries to reconnect with his estranged daughter.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Poor. While I applaud Richard Gere’s continued efforts to stretch himself artistically, the box office just isn’t his friend.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. While I’m sure he’ll be pushed heavily for Oscar consideration, the competition is far too strong for him to get noticed this year.

September 18, 2015

Black Mass

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of Whitey Bulger, the brother of a state senator and the most infamous violent criminal in the history of South Boston, who became an FBI informant to take down a Mafia family invading his turf.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. Johnny Depp hasn’t always had bad luck at the box office and films of this caliber tend to bring out the best in his potential.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. While I don’t know if the film will be Oscar bait, Johnny Depp’s performance will be. He’s finally stretching himself beyond the crap he’s done recently, which could net him serious attention.

Captive

Premise: From IMDb: “In this fact-based thriller, a single mother struggling with drug addiction is randomly taken hostage in her own apartment by a man on the run from the law for breaking out of jail and murdering the judge assigned to his case.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. The era of big box office for Christian-targeted films seems to be coming to an end. Other than a few outliers, most of the recent product has failed to ignite at the box office. Trying to infuse a thriller with Christian themes might work, but I’m skeptical.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Everest

Premise: From IMDb: “A climbing expedition on Mt. Everest is devastated by a severe snow storm.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It could certainly be huge. A lot of recognizable faces in the cast of a film that promises plenty of jarring thrills is the kind of early-fall film that surprises at the box office. It could also be a complete failure.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film could certainly appeal to the tech members of the Academy, but unless this is the second coming of great action adventure films as deemed by critics, I don’t suspect it will make much headway at the Oscars.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Premise: From IMDb: “After having escaped the Maze, the Gladers now face a new set of challenges on the open roads of a desolate landscape filled with unimaginable obstacles.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. The first film just barely edged past $100 million at the box office. I doubt the sequel comes close.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Pawn Sacrifice (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “American chess champion Bobby Fischer prepares for a legendary match-up against Russian Boris Spassky.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Good. A specialty box office feature about legendary chess champions wouldn’t seem like it has box office potential, but there are a lot of signs that this could be an Oscar contender and, if that’s the case, it will do much better than expected.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. I think the film has a lot of potential from an Oscar perspective, but it must impress critics and demand their undying attention to overcome the weekend’s other major Oscar contender.

Sicario (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An idealistic FBI agent is enlisted by an elected government task force to aid in the escalating war against drugs at the border area between the U.S. and Mexico.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There are so many iffy prospects about this film. Will it be a box office success? Will it be an Oscar contender. All the elements necessary to launch both bids are there and Emily Blunt would certainly seem a natural choice for leading such a film to success, but the potential for failure is also there.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Early word from critics is that this is a strong film. Denis Villeneuve has a lot of fans based on his recent output, but will they be enough to boost the film into the height of Oscar competition?

September 25, 2015

Before I Wake

Premise: From IMDb: “A young couple adopt an orphaned child whose dreams – and nightmares – manifest physically as he sleeps.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It’s a little early for Halloween, so I’m not sure why so many such films are releasing now. They’ll have a month to pique interests before disappearing and this, of the weekend’s three, is probably the most likely to succeed.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Green Inferno

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of student activists travels to the Amazon to save the rain forest and soon discover that they are not alone, and that no good deed goes unpunished.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. Eli Roth’s first film in eight years has been plagued by delays, which suggests it’s not nearly as good as his cult hits of the past.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hotel Transylvania 2

Premise: From IMDb: “When the old-old-old-fashioned vampire Vlad arrives at the hotel for an impromptu family get-together, Hotel Transylvania is in for a collision of supernatural old-school and modern day cool.”
Box Office Prospects: $130 M
Expectations: Good. The first film was a modest hit when it released three years ago. Considering the failures Adam Sandler has accumulated recently, he’ll need this one to do well to avoid too much lessening of his future salaries.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. When the first film came out, critics weren’t nearly as impressed as audiences and the Academy utterly ignored the film. While the competition this year is weaker, there’s still enough of it to keep it out of the competition.

The Intern

Premise: From IMDb: “70-year-old widower Ben Whittaker has discovered that retirement isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Seizing an opportunity to get back in the game, he becomes a senior intern at an online fashion site, founded and run by Jules Ostin.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. It’s been a long while since a comedy like this was a hit at the box office, but with the two affable stars on board (Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway), it could end up bringing an end to the drought.
Oscar Prospects: None.

99 Homes (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A father struggles to get back the home that his family was evicted from by working for the greedy real estate broker who’s the source of his frustration.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. The film’s been poking around for months without a release date and the stars are just not popular enough to help transition this film into more than a mediocre specialty performer.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Stonewall (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A young man’s political awakening and coming of age during the days and weeks leading up to the Stonewall Riots.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It all depends on how good the film is. While gay audiences aren’t always running to the multiplex to champion films with gay characters, this is a pivotal moment in that culture’s history, which could give it some legs. However, I suspect it may not be as good as everyone hopes and disappointment tends to drive down box office tallies.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Once again, it all matters how good the film is. If critics rally behind it, you could see a major player in the year’s Oscar race. If they ignore it, which seems more and more likely as details emerge about the film, it will probably be forgotten.