[NOTE: I looked at the September results rather than the August results. I’ve updated the post name to reflect this and August will be done in February in lieu of September.]

September 4, 2015

The Transporter Refueled

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Why this franchise, which has had one box office disappointment after another, still manages to get films made is a question only a money-hungry studio can understand.”
Box Office Results: $16.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The franchise wasn’t huge to begin with, but dumping your recognizable star for someone new doesn’t embolden fans. It apparently turns them away.

A Walk in the Woods

Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film may have some big names in it, but the Labor Day weekend release doesn’t help get it attention and the critics aren’t likely to bolster it either.”
Box Office Results: $29.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The film performed surprisingly well, but the tally is still quite low.

Before We Go (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $500 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film hasn’t earned a lot of attention and seems to keep getting pushed down the release pipeline, which suggests the Labor Day weekend release is just a place to dump it without relevance.”
Box Office Results: $37 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Not only was it dumped, but it made a fraction of my prediction. That’s not good for anyone.

September 11, 2015

The Perfect Guy

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Films targeted black audiences have been rather anemic recently. This is after a string of box office disappointments, including from typical stalwart Tyler Perry. Perhaps the slow down will help this one perform well, and against this kind of competition, that’s an entirely possible situation.”
Box Office Results: $57.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing on par with expectations, The Perfect Guy doesn’t seem like it could get a sequel, but it will certainly mean more of this type of film gets made.

The Visit

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. His biggest hit in the last decade was successful in spite of itself, largely because of the subject matter. Even Will Smith couldn’t sell the polished turd that was After Earth. Still, studios seem to continue to invest in M. Night Shyamalan, so he sold his soul to the right devil. It’s possible the film is big, but with so little information out there about it, niche audiences might be the only ones who give it a shot.”
Box Office Results: $65.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] You can’t really say that M. Night Shyamalan is back considering his name wasn’t used much to promote the film and genre pics like this often do well in spite of their directors. Still, it exceeded expectations, which means we’ll see more of Shyamalan.

Time Out of Mind (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. While I’m sure he’ll be pushed heavily for Oscar consideration, the competition is far too strong for him to get noticed this year.”
Oscar Results: The competition isn’t strong, but Richard Gere hasn’t even been in the conversation this year.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. While I applaud Richard Gere’s continued efforts to stretch himself artistically, the box office just isn’t his friend.”
Box Office Results: $164 K
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] What a disappointing tally. Sure, the topic isn’t the type to encourage viewership, but its message should have meant a bigger slice of the pie.

September 18, 2015

Black Mass

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While I don’t know if the film will be Oscar bait, Johnny Depp’s performance will be. He’s finally stretching himself beyond the crap he’s done recently, which could net him serious attention.”
Oscar Results: Johnny Depp remains the film’s only hope for a nomination in Best Actor. The film has earned a few notices in that realm, but his nomination is hanging on by a thread.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Johnny Depp hasn’t always had bad luck at the box office and films of this caliber tend to bring out the best in his potential.”
Box Office Results: $62.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While not the bomb that his prior film was, Depp’s presence likely lifted the film’s prospects. While this is a solid total, it’s ultimately not that spectacular.

Captive

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The era of big box office for Christian-targeted films seems to be coming to an end. Other than a few outliers, most of the recent product has failed to ignite at the box office. Trying to infuse a thriller with Christian themes might work, but I’m skeptical.”
Box Office Results: $2.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It just goes to show you that not every spiritual film can become a box office success on the backs of Christian audiences.

Everest

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film could certainly appeal to the tech members of the Academy, but unless this is the second coming of great action adventure films as deemed by critics, I don’t suspect it will make much headway at the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: Apart from its visual effects, the film has been almost entirely absent from the Oscar race this year and I don’t expect it will ultimately make that one category.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It could certainly be huge. A lot of recognizable faces in the cast of a film that promises plenty of jarring thrills is the kind of early-fall film that surprises at the box office. It could also be a complete failure.”
Box Office Results: $43.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was heavily advertised and the studio thought surely the combination of stars, effects and peril would lift the film to success. While it wasn’t a bomb, it wasn’t a smash either.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film just barely edged past $100 million at the box office. I doubt the sequel comes close.”
Box Office Results: $81.6 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Among young adult adaptations, Maze Runner is a modest success. While this is about $20 million off its predecessor’s performance, the tally may be sufficient to merit a continuation of the franchise.

Pawn Sacrifice (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. I think the film has a lot of potential from an Oscar perspective, but it must impress critics and demand their undying attention to overcome the weekend’s other major Oscar contender.”
Oscar Results: There were some brief flirtations the film had with the Oscars, but when all was said and done, love for the film didn’t materialize and it’s been entirely forgotten this Oscar season.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. A specialty box office feature about legendary chess champions wouldn’t seem like it has box office potential, but there are a lot of signs that this could be an Oscar contender and, if that’s the case, it will do much better than expected.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Searching for Bobby Fischer, a chess film that wasn’t even about Fischer, did almost three times the business as this film…and that was in 1993. There’s no downplaying this result.

Sicario (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Early word from critics is that this is a strong film. Denis Villeneuve has a lot of fans based on his recent output, but will they be enough to boost the film into the height of Oscar competition?”
Oscar Results: The Oscar campaign is pushing hard for this film and it’s made enough nominations lists, especially from guilds, to be a solid Oscar player. How many nominations remains to be seen, but it could easily net three or four in the creative categories and possibly even a Best Picture berth.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There are so many iffy prospects about this film. Will it be a box office success? Will it be an Oscar contender. All the elements necessary to launch both bids are there and Emily Blunt would certainly seem a natural choice for leading such a film to success, but the potential for failure is also there.”
Box Office Results: $46.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] It hasn’t done blockbuster business, but for a film that didn’t have a lot about it to suggest it would be a hit, this is a fairly solid performance. Since it’s still in limited release, an Oscar nomination (or a few) could result in a re-release, which will ultimately push these numbers higher.

September 25, 2015

Before I Wake

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s a little early for Halloween, so I’m not sure why so many such films are releasing now. They’ll have a month to pique interests before disappearing and this, of the weekend’s three, is probably the most likely to succeed.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film was pulled from the release schedule and pushed into April 2016.

The Green Inferno

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Eli Roth’s first film in eight years has been plagued by delays, which suggests it’s not nearly as good as his cult hits of the past.”
Box Office Results: $7.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] There’s a reason this film got pushed back and was dumped unceremoniously in September. Its lame premise was something few actually wanted to see.

Hotel Transylvania 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. When the first film came out, critics weren’t nearly as impressed as audiences and the Academy utterly ignored the film. While the competition this year is weaker, there’s still enough of it to keep it out of the competition.”
Oscar Results: Precursor season solidified one thing: this isn’t a contender for an Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $130 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a modest hit when it released three years ago. Considering the failures Adam Sandler has accumulated recently, he’ll need this one to do well to avoid too much lessening of his future salaries.”
Box Office Results: $167.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Outperforming expectations, this sequel has proven that Sandler can still make a hit, but it has to be a family film. More are certainly going to be planned.

The Intern

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s been a long while since a comedy like this was a hit at the box office, but with the two affable stars on board (Robert De Niro and Anne Hathaway), it could end up bringing an end to the drought.”
Box Office Results: $75.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] De Niro and Hathaway paired for one of the strongest box office performers of late 2015. It wasn’t a smash hit, but it performed incredibly well.

99 Homes (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: No one would have thought back in September that not only was Michael Shannon’s performance going to make appearances in critics votes, but that it would be a contender for an actual Oscar nomination. Yet, here we are and here he is.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film’s been poking around for months without a release date and the stars are just not popular enough to help transition this film into more than a mediocre specialty performer.”
Box Office Results: $1.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For a film that could have been pushed direct-to-video, this isn’t a bad haul, though it’s nothing to be too impressed with either.

Stonewall (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Once again, it all matters how good the film is. If critics rally behind it, you could see a major player in the year’s Oscar race. If they ignore it, which seems more and more likely as details emerge about the film, it will probably be forgotten.”
Oscar Results: The reviews were terrible, which only goes to show that even a movie about progress can fail to progress.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It all depends on how good the film is. While gay audiences aren’t always running to the multiplex to champion films with gay characters, this is a pivotal moment in that culture’s history, which could give it some legs. However, I suspect it may not be as good as everyone hopes and disappointment tends to drive down box office tallies.”
Box Office Results: $187 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] After a campaign to smear the movie’s use of a gay white male protagonist as transphobic, the film couldn’t build on all the negative attention or reviews and collapsed.