Jun. 5, 2015

Entourage

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. As Veronica Mars proved big screen adaptations of cult favorite shows don’t always do incredibly well at the box office. Of course, Sex and the City proves otherwise. Yet, for all its familiarity to HBO subscribers, Entourage doesn’t have the cachet to be another Sex and the City, though without free digital copies to weigh it down, it should do quite a bit better than Veronica Mars.”
Box Office Results: $32.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The popular HBO series seemed like the perfect film to adapt to the big screen, at least in someone’s mind. Like Veronica Mars before it, the fanbase is broad, but they are just as eager to wait until home video to watch it. While it out-performed my expectations, they were pretty low to begin with.

Insidious Chapter 3

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film was a modest horror success. The second film outpaced it by more than $29 million. Can a prequel do better than the sequel? I doubt it. However, I suspect the third film will end up just north of the first entry in the franchise.”
Box Office Results: $52.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it’s not a blockbuster tally, it proves that semi-popular horror franchises can still maintain the status quo at the box office. Cheap-to-make and cheap-to-market, the films easily make back their budgets even if they aren’t outsized performers.

Spy

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Spy comedies can either be wildly successful or colossal failures and there isn’t much in between. With Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig teaming up again, this one seems to be moving towards the wild side, which could mean a pretty hefty payout. Still, McCarthy hasn’t commanded very much on solo outings and usually has to have a big name co-star to sell it. This film doesn’t have that.”
Box Office Results: $110.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] It’s a bit surprising that a film as funny as this didn’t manage to become a bigger hit. Still, a $100 million-plus tally is still pretty solid.

Love & Mercy (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Those who’ve seen it say it’s very good. Yet, the buzz surrounding the film still hasn’t materialized, which may mean it is completely ignored eight months from now.”
Oscar Results: There’s still a minor amount of buzz for this film, but there’s little doubt the length of time between its release and the Oscars is inhibiting its potential.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Successful biopics on legendary musicians are a tough sell to audiences. Fans of the individuals being covered show up en masse, but no one else seems to care. The best recent example was Get On Up a biopic on James Brown that had an Oscar campaign going at the time of its release. It managed a mere $30 million in spite of Brown being a fairly noteworthy artist. While the Beach Boys are questionably more famous, it’s an independent film that doesn’t have any major stars to sell the hell out of it.”
Box Office Results: $12.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Perhaps the Beach Boys are no longer as popular as they once were or maybe biopics aren’t. Either way, the film underperformed in several key metrics, but didn’t finish with an abysmal total.

Jun. 12, 2015

Jurassic World

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The first two films in the franchise received Oscar nominations. The first film won all three that it was nominated for (Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects). The second film was only up for Best Visual Effects, which it lost. Enough time has gone by to give the franchise a chance at Oscar redemption, but it will likely only compete in the three categories the original film did and none of them are likely to result in a win this time out.”
Oscar Results: The film was a blockbuster, which should easily enable it to get into the Oscar tech races. Whether it can win or not depends on the competition.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There’s zero chance the film approaches the first film’s tally, but topping the second film should be a bit easier. Stiff competition might hurt the film, but Chris Pratt seems to be on a hot streak and it could very well come close to the first film even if inflation adjustment makes the two seem galaxies apart.”
Box Office Results: $651.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] This is certainly a staggering total and one that will likely stand for this year (until Star Wars releases), but compared to the original Spielberg film, adjusted for inflation, it’s still about $60 million off. It’s still impressive, though.

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Festivals have helped plenty of small efforts claim Oscar nominations, but this may not have the level of support it needs to make that happen. However, it’s Fox Searchlight behind it, so it should get a push and if the rest of the competition this year is a bit weak, it could end up a contender.”
Oscar Results: The film has lost a little of its luster, especially now that Room is taking a lot of the attention from the indie crowd, but it’s still a minor competitor for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, its only real hopes.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s classified as a drama, but with this kind of title, it’s sure to pique the interests of those expecting a kind of dark comedy. With excellent reviews and buzz coming out of the festival circuit, it could do quite well at the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $6.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The specialty box office is a fickle thing for indie seriocomedies, but this one managed to avoid a recent trend of acclaimed films failing to catch on sufficiently. It performed about as expected.

Jun. 19, 2015

Dope

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. One of several films this summer hoping to tap into younger audiences. However, no manner of advertising will turn this concept into a box office hit.”
Box Office Results: $17.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film didn’t catch on with audiences even though critics were universally positive. That much we expected.

Inside Out

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While it’s uncertain if the film will enter the Best Picture race or not, it’s assured a Best Animated Feature nomination and, considering this year’s competition, a win is all but assured at this point. It could show in a couple of other categories, including Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, but it’s the Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay races that remain its toughest challenges.”
Oscar Results: The likely winner for Best Animated Feature, the film is also a major contender for Best Picture like two of the past Pixar efforts and should compete for nominations in Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.
Box Office Prediction: $270 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. With the exception of three films (two of which came very close), every Pixar film has handily topped the $200 million threshold (with inflation, Cars is the only one that hasn’t). Fewer, only six, have topped $250 million (considering inflation, that number increases to 11, all but three films). Yet, of the ones that managed that feat, they were all more kid-friendly pics, making it very likely that Inside Out enters that smaller group.”
Box Office Results: $355.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] In spite of appearances, this concept was incredibly kid-friendly, which enabled it to tap into the market well and pulled out the second best initial performance in Pixar history, behind only Toy Story 3. Of course, if you adjust for inflation, it slides to sixth behind all three Toy Story films, Monsters, Inc. and Finding Nemo. It’s still superb.

Jun. 26, 2015

Max

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t many examples out there of this type of film, so it’s very hard to find a reasonable model. However, the concept may appeal to some, but I doubt it’s enough to make it a huge hit.”
Box Office Results: $42.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Turning out just the right mix of pro-patriotic, pro-pet audiences, the film performed as well as expected.

The Outskirts

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The High School comedy genre has produced few out-and-out hits. This one hasn’t had a lot of advertising done to date and while it might appeal to the Mean Girls crowd, I doubt it will find the breadth of that original audience.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film was pushed back, not once but twice now. If it ever sees the light of day, I’ll revise my comments.

Ted 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Even though the first film nabbed a surprise Best Original Song nomination, don’t expect that to happen again.”
Oscar Results: It’s lackluster box office performance paired with the utter surprise of the previous nomination almost completely eliminates any chance the film has of scoring with Oscar again.
Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. I expect the film to do incredibly well, but whether it can approach its predecessor’s $218 million tally is unlikely. While 22 Jump Street proved that comedy sequels can easily out-gross their predecessors, that film is more an anomaly than a rule as The Hangover franchise can attest.”
Box Office Results: $81.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Lightning doesn’t always strike twice and putting a comedy like this into a courtroom setting proved too dull to level the same kind of box office support.