[NOTE: Last month, I looked at the September results rather than the August results. I’ve updated that post name to reflect this and August will be done this month rather than September.]

August 7, 2015

Fantastic Four

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Satisfactory. The prior two films in this franchise made around $130-$155 million at the box office, not a bad take, but rather unexceptional compared to everything else Disney/Marvel has put out. I expect this reboot to fit right in that range since this team of superheroes isn’t exactly the most popular.”
Box Office Results: $56.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another reboot fails to live up to expectations. The studio tinkered heavily with the outcome of the film and the resultant mess was a critical disaster and a box office flop leading the studio to pull the intended sequel off the calendar for the foreseeable future.

The Gift

Box Office Prediction: $50M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. An unusual take on the horror/thriller genre, it could perform quite well with audiences not getting much of that kind of picture recently, but it could also be completely ignored for not being enough like Paranormal Activity or any other supernatural horror film of late.”
Box Office Results: $43.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the gimmick was different, the outcome wasn’t with a solid showing for a Hollywood horror film albeit with more recognizable stars.

Ricki and the Flash

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. As always, if Meryl Streep is involved, there will be Oscar talk. While many will point to Suffragette as her best opportunity, this family drama with Streep in the lead could prove attractive if audiences and critics both support the film.”
Oscar Results: Neither audiences nor critics supported the film, so by the wayside it went.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Meryl Streep can make good bank, but this film just doesn’t seem like the kind of film to dig into her core audience. That said, the film could be buoyed by strong reviews to earn enough attention to get it seen, but I’m suspecting the August release is mainly because test audiences weren’t that enamored by it.”
Box Office Results: $26.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The production just didn’t have the degree of marketing needed to make it a success and as much as folk love Streep, she has her limitations and this appears to be beyond that.

Shaun the Sheep Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. There are essentially five production/distribution houses for animation that you can consistently predict for Oscar consideration. DreamWorks and Disney/Pixar are the two big ones. GKids and Focus/Laika are the two small players. Aardman animation is the fifth. The studio has been fairly consistent, which gives this one a leg-up in a weak race.”
Oscar Results: An Oscar nomination arrived for the film, which was certainly expected and when two GKids films pushed out two other productions, this one held on and made it to the final contest. It won’t win, but a nomination is still important.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Aardman animation, in spite of being one of the best animation studios out there, just cannot ignite the box office. It’s been 9 years since they last topped $50 million (even though they’ve only had two releases since then) and without the well known Wallace and Gromit at the helm, I’m not sure this film can catch on. However, their top box office champ is Chicken Run, which covered a similar anthropomorphized animal concept like this one does.”
Box Office Results: $19.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The box office has never been kind to non-computer animated films. If it’s not a major studio effort with a major studio push, it’s not going to do well and this showcases that.

Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Always beware of GKids. The small animation distributor has been behind some of the biggest surprise Oscar nominees of the last decade. They’ve picked up at least two films so far this year. This will be the one least likely to figure into the Oscar race, but with a weaker-than-normal year for animated features, they could easily score two slots.”
Oscar Results: It was one of three GKids films in the competition, but it just couldn’t muster enough support to be one of the two films that did manage to make it in.
Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Animated films that aren’t produced by the major studios, or even smaller studios, do very poorly with audiences. If legendary animator Hayao Miyazaki can’t regularly command hefty box office numbers, a film like this will struggle a great deal to do so.”
Box Office Results: $355 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] As expected, non-computer animated films don’t do well, but even this paltry sum seems far too little for such an effort.

August 14, 2015

The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Guy Ritchie’s period film Sherlock Holmes surprised with Oscar nominations for Best Original Score and Best Art Direction. The sequel didn’t get anything. The designs of this film could surprise with nominations, but I suspect that critics will give it such a drubbing that the Academy won’t end up anywhere near it.”
Oscar Results: And a drubbing it received, leading the Academy to give a big shrug to the film.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Apart from the Robert Downey Jr. Sherlock Holmes films, Guy Ritchie hasn’t exactly been a box office draw. However, with those two being his most recent films, it’s possible he’s finally picked up on a style that demands audiences pay attention. Spy thrillers seem to be doing well lately, but can a period drama explode the box office? Since Ritchie did it with Sherlock Holmes, there’s no reason to suspect that he can’t do it again. Unfortunately for him, this is not a property many people have heard of and it doesn’t feature any major bankable stars.”
Box Office Results: $45.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without support from critics and a property that most younger audiences aren’t familiar with, the end result was a lackluster tally that virtually ensures there will be no sequels.

Straight Outta Compton

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Initially, this looked like every other biopic in recent memory, a film that could be popular but will be easily forgotten. Yet, the critics loved it and it became a small, if earnest contender for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. It got several key nominations throughout the season, including one from the Producers Guild of America and one from the Writers Guild of America. Yet, when Oscar Morning arrived, it got only a Best Original Screenplay nomination, not a Best Picture nod, having failed to secure the minimum 5% threshold required to earn that title.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I don’t see this being an audience-friendly picture, certainly not one that will be going gangbusters at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $161.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It wasn’t your garden variety biopic and ultimately became a box office sensation, scoring better than anyone initially thought it might. The support from critics certainly helped.

Underdogs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. This foreign import will be one of a handful of films competing for a Best Animated Feature nomination. No matter how popular the film is, I wouldn’t count on Oscar voters giving it a goal.”
Oscar Results: It was such a flop that it didn’t even get shortlisted.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Another example of an off-studio animated feature trying to earn respect in August. Unlike Aardman, the foreign origin of this film and its off-sync English dubbing is not likely to appease many parents accustomed to much better efforts from the majors.”
Box Office Results: $35 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] What should have been a hit with Hispanic audiences turned into a poorly marketed, colossal dud.

August 21, 2015

American Ultra

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. There’s recent history to show that stoner movies can resonate with audiences. Ted, This is the End and Pineapple Express all did fairly well with audiences. While I don’t know if this one can quite reach Ted levels, I suspect it will outdo at least Pineapple Express and come closer to This Is the End in the end.”
Box Office Results: $14.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Proof that stoner comedies don’t always do well and that Kristen Stewart and Jesse Eisenberg are not box office draws at all.

Hitman: Agent 47

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Was anyone really clamoring for another Hitman movie? Considering the first film was released eight years ago and only made $39 million at the box office, demand isn’t high and nothing seems to indicate this one will be that popular.”
Box Office Results: $22.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Performing about as expected for a no-name cast and a poorly performing original.

Masterminds

Box Office Prediction: $105 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. August needs at least one sleeper hit, especially an R-Rated comedy. I think this will fit that bill nicely with a popular genre (bank heists) mixed with relatively familiar comic names (Zach Galifiankis, Kristen Wiig and Owen Wilson).”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film never released. It was pushed to September, but never appears to have been sent to theaters.

Sinister 2

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Is a $48 million box office tally for a horror film sufficient reason enough to give it a sequel? Apparently Focus thinks so. They didn’t produce the original (Lionsgate/Summit did), so there’s no telling if they’ll be able to effectively market the film or if anyone will actually want to see it regardless of studio.”
Box Office Results: $27.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The franchise has ended before it began. A weak box office tally for the original should have been a clue that a sequel wasn’t demanded or necessary. Now that fact has become painfully clear.

Grandma (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. There’s some talk that Lily Tomlin could make a play for an Oscar nomination with this film. I suspect, however, that she’ll not even come close or someone will stupidly push her for a Best Supporting Actress nomination.”
Oscar Results: She was indeed pushed in lead, but because the competition for Best Actress was so tight that two leads were nominated in support, there was little chance she could get nominated, especially without ample recognition from major awards-giving bodies.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Apart from a resurgent Lily Tomlin, I don’t think there’s much reason to suspect this film will become much of a hit, though on the specialty circuit, it should do decently well.”
Box Office Results: $6.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] This indie comedy did quite well for the specialty box office even if it didn’t move beyond that realm.

August 28, 2015

Regression

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Alejandro Amenabar is a well known name in certain circles, but only one of his four features since his first in 1999 has earned Oscar attention. I don’t really think he’s going to have any luck here.”
Oscar Results: XXXX
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This is the weekend you release films you have zero faith in. The last weekend of August is typically a dumping ground (as is Labor Day weekend, which is the first of September). Amenabar’s films have been good, so it’s possible this one exceeds expectations, but no one will find out until they watch it on DVD.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was pulled from the release calendar and is just now (Jan. 29) been released to theaters.

We Are Your Friends

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Advertising for this film has been virtually non-existent and kids will be back in school by this time (at least many districts will be), so I doubt Zac Efron fans (if there really are any) will make it to the theater).”
Box Office Results: $3.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Are we still talking about the alums from Twilight and High School Musical being box office draws? If the frequent performances of films like this don’t get that idea into the studios’ heads’ heads, nothing will.

War Room (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A Christian-themed film releasing with little fanfare? I’m surprised. It will be heavily marketed to the target demographic, but the genre has struggled in the last year to mount anything in the way of surprise hits, so I don’t know if this one will do very well, especially without more heavy flogging by its producers.”
Box Office Results: $67.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] The Christian film market is hit-or-miss and this one just happened to be a hit. Meanwhile, other such films have taken quite the drubbing at the box office recently, so where lightning will strike, even the producers don’t know.