May 2-4, 2014

The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The original trilogy didn’t get a lot of Oscar attention, but it got some. The reboot got none. I see the same thing occurring this time out, though it’s possible that the heavy use of CGI might bolster the film’s chances.”
Oscar Results: Critics weren’t very impressed with the film as a whole and the vast majority of Oscar nominees this year are likely to come from better reviewed blockbusters.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The original franchise had a problem. Each subsequent film in the trilogy made less than its predecessor, this in spite of soaring ticket prices. With The Amazing Spider-Man starting out lower overall and with critics and audiences less enthused (barely) about the reboot, it’s probable that the second film will find a tough time matching its predecessor’s numbers.”
Box Office Results: $202.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not to knock a $200 million box office tally, but compared to its predecessors and the potential, fans just didn’t seem to engage on the level necessary to make this a bigger hit than it was.

May 9-11, 2014

Chef

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s no real precedent for this type of film and although Jon Favreau successfully established the Iron Man franchise, there’s no proof that he’ll be able to do the same for light comedy. Add to that the utter lack of marketing that seems to be out there so far and I doubt the film will do very well.”
Box Office Results: $31.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] In spite of not reaching the lofty prediction I set, Chef performed quite well. The numbers were bolstered by a handful of weeks in the Top Ten at the box office, a break-out indie hit if there were few others so far this year.

Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film doesn’t look that great and advertising has been minimal. With no trailers on the front of recent animated film Frozen or kids film Muppets Most Wanted, I don’t know how the film can possibly succeed. It’s also possible that the trailers released in the next month catch on and kids of all ages decide to catch the latest re-telling of the L. Frank Baum classic. I just don’t think it looks like more than a standard direct-to-video affair.”
Box Office Results: $8.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Critics didn’t like it. Audiences didn’t respond to it, but the producers insisted that the film’s poor box office performance was not a result of a flawed, horrible film, but because Hollywood sabotaged it. How exactly that happened is anyone’s guess, but that’s what they think.

Moms’ Night Out

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. No major names. No major advertising. It’s like this film doesn’t even exist, yet it’s scheduled for a wide release near the beginning of May. If a comedy wins the weekend, it will be Neighbors.”
Box Office Results: $10.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another bomb with critics, Moms’ Night Out got a slightly better result at the box office, but it only goes to show that even Christian audiences won’t respond to every attempt to take money from their pocketbooks, especially if the film itself isn’t that good.

Neighbors

Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Anything else released this weekend will be sacrificial lambs to one of two films. Either to The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening the weekend before or Zac Efron / Seth Rogen comedy Neighbors. I suspect it will still come in second, but it will be the highest debut of the weekend and may carry forward for a few weeks as a strong holdover considering the immensely positive early word of mouth.”
Box Office Results: $150.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] While the smaller wide releases fared poorly this weekend, Zac Efron and Seth Rogen performed very well with a critically-praised comedy hit, proving that well written films, regardless of subject matter, can outperform those that no one really likes.

May 16-18, 2014

Godzilla

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film could be a contender in the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories, but this year is so filled over capacity with technically-proficient films that I doubt it will even make it that far.”
Oscar Results: The film made enough money at the box office to avoid being forgotten and it’s very likely to make the Visual Effects bakeoff list; however, I suspect nominations are going to be tough to corral.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Sony attempted to reboot the monster movie staple in 1998. It was met with derision from critics and disgruntled audiences. Even though it ended with an obvious set up for a sequel, no sequel came. 17 years later, almost to the date, Warner Bros. is going to try its hand at it. They are sure to be more successful since they seem to be sticking close to the mechanics that made the original films so popular. The film hasn’t been seen by critics yet, so it could still be a dud, but to be worse than the 1998 version would take some heft effort.”
Box Office Results: $200.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] The distaste of the 1998 remake seems to have faded as the latest version of the Japanese monster idol did incredibly well at the box office. It outperformed expectations, though it fell short of becoming an unqualified, undeniable blockbuster.

Million Dollar Arm

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Disney is no stranger to popular sports dramas, but most of their highest grossing films were family-oriented. This one doesn’t seem like such a film even if it has some elements that might make it appealing. Still, it’s been 22 years since the highest grossing baseball film of all time released and A League of Their Own, even not adjusting for inflation, is likely to maintain that title for a bit longer.”
Box Office Results: $36.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The days of simplistic Disney entertainment are long gone. This film, which would have fit perfectly into the programming model of The Wonderful World of Disney, doesn’t quite have the same impact in the modern marketplace, hence the latest in a series of flops.

May 23-25, 2014

Blended

Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Adam Sandler may not have had a lot of success in recent years, at least not without help from friends, but he is surprisingly strong at drawing viewers to his romantic comedies. His Jennifer Aniston co-starring film netted just north of $100 million while his last pairing with Drew Barrymore secured $120 million (adjusted to $162 million with inflation). This will be the ultimate test of whether Sandler still commands respect at the box office and I suspect he’ll still succeed. Yet, I think his brand may be weakened enough that he’s unable to hit his prior highs, but still clears the $100 million threshold.”
Box Office Results: $46.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The days of Adam Sandler as a box office icon have gone. Another in a long line of flops should put him out to pasture for awhile. At least as a romantic comedy lead.

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. This franchise has been an Oscar pariah, so I see little hope for the film this time around.”
Oscar Results: There are too many possibilities this year. It may well make the bake-off list, but the final five will be a struggle.
Box Office Prediction: $160 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While not as popular as the Avengers universe, the X-Men have a solid reputation at the box office. None of their films have dipped below $130 at the box office, though none have topped $240. That said, First Class was a popular and acclaimed refresh of the brand and the disappointing Origins film for Wolverine should be forgotten. While Jennifer Lawrence is hardly recognizable in the trailers so far and the focus has been entirely on Wolverine, there is plenty to suggest that this will top its predecessor at the box office and might even do better than even I expect.”
Box Office Results: $233.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] The franchise has risen like the Phoenix from the ashes (she’s got a cameo, so it’s a fair pun). With this performance, there will be a healthy rivalry between the X-Men and the Avengers for some years.

May 30-June 1, 2014

Maleficent

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Disney doesn’t know how to campaign for the Oscars anymore. After the failure of Saving Mr. Banks, I would be shocked if they mounted a much better campaign this time out. Thankfully, they only have to focus on the creative categories, like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. Those are much easier to court than the pesky top tier categories where it would most definitely not come close.”
Oscar Results: While I doubt it will make the crowded Best Visual Effects list, it should still compete in several tech categories.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The last two live-action adaptations of classic fairytales with twists on the subject were quite popular. Snow White and the Huntsman only managed $155, but Oz the Great and Powerful secured $234 million. I suspect this one will fall somewhere between those two numbers, closer to Oz than Snow White.”
Box Office Results: $240.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] The darkened fairytales concept continues to grow, which should keep it popular and overbearing for quite awhile.

A Million Ways to Die in the West

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s no possible way lightning strikes twice for Seth MacFarlane. Ted tapped into a unique concept that hadn’t been explored fully on the big screen before. His raunchy, questionable humor fit quite effectively into the grown-up teddy bear conceit. This time out, he’s up against much harsher comparative competition. Mel Brooks has already created the definitive western spoof. He made almost $120 million at the box office 40 years prior. That adjusts to about $514 million today. MacFarlane will be lucky to gross a fifth of that.”
Box Office Results: $42.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Lightning doesn’t strike twice for MacFarlane, though he’s still got Ted 2 in the pipeline.