July 2, 2014

Deliver Us from Evil

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The trailers get some of the peril right, but make this look more like a supernatural thriller rather than a supernatural horror film and none of that may be very convincing to an audience that’s growing weary of the genre.”
Box Office Results: $30.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Any film that outperforms expectations, even low ones, is a success. While the film didn’t break the box office, the result is decent for a minor horror release in July.

Earth to Echo

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t a lot of family films going at the cineplexes, but even such, it’s hard to sell them when they do show up. The previews aren’t bad and could encourage brisk attendance, but it may not be enough to make it a hit.”
Box Office Results: $38.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Families weren’t that interested and the trend towards weak performance of mass market-targeted features continues.

Tammy

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Melissa McCarthy has proven to be a stalwart box office performer, but it’s almost always been while accompanied by other strong presences (Sandra Bullock, Jason Bateman). This will be her first real test of her star power. It should do well, but may not be as big a hit as her past outings.”
Box Office Results: $84.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Melissa McCarthy tried to go it alone and didn’t manage to succeed. While this tally isn’t abysmal, it isn’t close to what the studio would have hoped.

July 4, 2014

Life Itself (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film industry tends to avoid film-related documentaries. While this one might have more life-affirming qualities, I can’t see the Academy giving it the thumbs up.”
Oscar Results: The Academy hasn’t weighed in on it yet, but the Producers Guild of America gave it a vote of confidence. That can’t hurt.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. As much as Roger Ebert is a beloved figure in the film criticism community, his film just doesn’t seem like the kind of cross-over documentary that does superb box office business. It will outperform many, but not the top performers.”
Box Office Results: $810.5 K
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Roger Ebert may be a stalwart figure among critics and liberals, but his documentary didn’t seem to spark any passion with any of them. Since most critics screen films for free, that base of support didn’t contribute to its box office performance.

July 11, 2014

And So It Goes

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. In spite of box office tallies to the contrary, studios still think they can sell romantic dramas to older audiences, this time putting Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton together. Neither has been particularly skilled at pulling people to the theaters, so I wouldn’t expect much from this.”
Box Office Results: $15.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The reign of movies targeting older audiences has been fading in the last year, with a thundering flop for this Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton disaster.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The first film narrowly lost the Best Visual Effects Oscar to a late surge by Martin Scorsese’s Hugo. This time out, it has a lot more competition, but should still manage to secure a nomination in the category. Other categories may not be as easy.”
Oscar Results: A Best Visual Effects nomination is all but assured, but the film hasn’t picked up much traction outside of the creative and tech categories and I wouldn’t be surprised if it misses everywhere but visual effects.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The predecessor did incredibly well for a reboot of the franchise. Since then, it has only risen in estimation, making it a strong contender for one of the year’s stronger debuts.”
Box Office Results: $208.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Right on target, this sequel proves that you don’t have to sacrifice quality for success, something its predecessor assured us of as well. Of all the flops that materialized this year, Dawn was not one of them.

The Fluffy Movie

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Concert documentaries, especially comedy ones, just don’t draw audiences the way you might expect. Gabriel Iglesias isn’t the global star that Justin Bieber is and Bieber couldn’t even get his fans to see his second documentary. While this one is obviously targeted at Hispanic audiences, there’s only so much clout they have at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $2.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The lesson here is that concert films, even comedy ones, just aren’t the draw their producers want the subjects to think they are.

Boyhood (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The sheer audacity of this project could earn it a screenwriting nomination at the Oscars, but the film would have to do excellent box office and become one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year to get beyond that category limitation.”
Oscar Results: Both of the conditions I put on this film, critical acclaim and box office success have come to fruition giving Richard Linklater his first major Oscar vehicle ever. It’s working its way towards multiple nominations, including Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Ethan Hawke), Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette) and Best Original Screenplay. Throw in a Best Film Editing nomination and you have a key contender this year.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Richard Linklater is a beloved indie cinema figure and his multi-year filmmaking odyssey will very likely pique the interests of that kind of crowd. It’s not likely going to be a break out hit and while some non-Linklater fans may turn out, ultimately the film will only have so high a ceiling before it stops gaining traction.”
Box Office Results: $24.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing far above expectations for this type of film, Boyhood didn’t turn into a cross-over hit, but if it keeps steamrolling through precursor season and ends up a multi-nominated Oscar entry, a re-release will give it more legs.

July 18, 2014

Planes: Fire & Rescue

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Although its predecessor didn’t even come close to the heights of the Cars franchise, it performed well enough to earn a sequel. The first Planes was largely disliked, though, which may limit its potential as a box office contender. I suspect the tallies will be less than its predecessor, but not enough to dissuade future sequels.”
Box Office Results: $59.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] As audiences realized the non-Pixar sequel Planes wasn’t such a great movie, they decided mostly to stay at home, thus a Disney film far underperformed even its worst films. This is the worst box office performance for a Walt Disney animated film since Home on the Range heralded the most recent collapse of the Mouse House in 2004.

The Purge: Anarchy

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a success for horror fans everywhere and with a year of video sales to bolster interest, the sequel could still do quite well. The cast is diversified and the setting spread across the city, but that may only increase interest in the film as fans want to discover what’s going on in the world outside of the cloistered house from the original.”
Box Office Results: $71.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Assuring a third film will be produced, the second Purge film easily surpassed its predecessor at the box office, adding nearly $10 million. That is impressive for a franchise and suggests it has long legs unlike a number of other sequels that have come out in the last couple of years.

Sex Tape

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Jason Segel keeps getting work even though the box office has never warmed to him. This time, he’s being paired with Cameron Diaz in the hopes that her familiarity will help bolster the film’s chances. The problem is that Diaz hasn’t exactly been a huge box office draw in recent years suggesting the film may struggle to get a foothold in the marketplace.”
Box Office Results: $38.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Cameron Diaz is not invincible, especially when anchored down by Jason Segel who has one of the most improbable and puzzling careers of recent comedians.

Mood Indigo (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Gondry’s history with the Academy has been equally uneven and I see little reason to believe that this film will suddenly turn those tides for him.”
Oscar Results: Critics weren’t enamored and the box office was dreary. Scratch this one off your list (if you hadn’t already).
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Michel Gondry is such an uneven filmmaker even if his bizarre sensibilities pique the curiosity. While he’s had a couple of hits, he’s had significantly more misses, especially when he tackles bizarre subjects on an indie scale. Add to that the fact that the film is largely in French and you have a recipe for box office disinterest.”
Box Office Results: $303.2 K
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Michel Gondry doesn’t have a box office history, but this surely makes his other films look like unqualified hits. This is an abysmal result.

July 25, 2014

Hercules

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. Even box office hits aren’t Oscar magnets and this one will struggle to stand out in a sea of special effects-heavy features this year. No matter how impressive, don’t expect anything from Oscar.”
Oscar Results: XXXX
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. As easy as it would be to say that Dwayne Johnson’s box office success is entirely because of the films he’s in and not his star status, it’s hard to argue with the consistent string of box office successes as he’s had. Add to that the sword-and-sandal spectacle of this Greek-ish (Hercules is the Roman name of the demigod, Heracles is the Greek) odyssey and you should have a modest hit, especially with little else on the box office horizon.”
Box Office Results: $72.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Studios seem to think that Dwayne Johnson is a box office savior. They bring him into all sorts of projects for their first sequel hoping to build excitement for the films. Yet, as an opener, his performance is quite bland. This was supposed to be a big star at the box office this summer, but ended up far underperforming expectations.

Lucy

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Luc Besson doesn’t have the best track record and even with Scarlett Johansson on board, there is no guarantee of a hit. However, the trailers are striking and Johansson’s visibility is the highest it’s ever been thanks to her exposure with the Avengers franchise films, so it’s possible it could do much better than I expect.”
Box Office Results: $126.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] While Hercules was struggling to impress audiences, they gave Scarlett Johansson’s film based on a radically inaccurate scientific notion a passing grade, turning it into a surprise hit. The studio surely thought that positioning it against Hercules was a bit of counter-programming, but I doubt even they thought it would make this much money.

Step Up: All In

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The law of diminishing returns applies very well to this franchise. After a strong performance with the first film, each subsequent outing has made less and less money. Ergo, this one will become the weakest performer of the franchise to date, though that might not spell the end of the series.”
Box Office Results: $14.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Franchise fatigue has finally worn the Step Up films down to where any subsequent entries will be ridiculed (if that wasn’t already the case). The slow, but steady decline of the franchise is punctuated by this latest, which drops so far from its predecessor that I’d be surprised if six film gets made.

Magic in the Moonlight (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. With no major attention pushed on his actors this time around, Woody’s going to struggle to make an impact with Oscar. While it’s possible he still gets a screenwriting nomination or one of his actor’s gets a performance nod, the film will have to be better than most everything he’s done in recent years to make it into Best Picture or, even more difficultly, Best Director.”
Oscar Results: Critics were lukewarm and audiences didn’t seem to care. Those factors will combine to make everyone forget Woody even had a film out this year.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Woody Allen is as inconsistent as any independent filmmaker working today. Critics have to unabashedly embrace his films for them to become anything of a success and sometimes that’s not even helpful. Suffice it to say, he’ll do decently, but not specacularly as this film doesn’t sound like it has the kind of hit-making concept that he typically soars with.”
Box Office Results: $10.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The see saw that is Woody Allen’s box office performance continues with this especially weak tally.