AUGUST 1, 2014

Get On Up

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has a lot of potential for Oscar nominations, not the least of which is star Chadwick Boseman whose depiction of James Brown from the trailers suggests a powerhouse. If the film can live up to his capabilities, it could be a strong contender. Critics will have to at least partially agree, though.”
Oscar Results: The film didn’t get a lot of love from critics and has virtually disappeared from the conversation and will be ignored.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The last biopic of a major black musical genius made just $75 million at the box office. Ray, about legendary crooner Ray Charles performed well based on a couple of factors, including the popularity of star Jamie Foxx and its Oscar prospects. This film has the same prospects with Oscar, but may struggle with audiences since the star isn’t as familiar to audiences as Foxx was. Chadwick Boseman has the strong performer 42 to bolster his resume and James Brown is as legendary, if not more so than Ray Charles. This is also Tate Taylor’s follow-up to The Help, which was sleeper hit in roughly the same frame back in 2011. That could bolster its potential, but The Help was based on a hugely popular book, which will not help this film one bit. It’s possible the film could out-perform Ray, but I’m suspecting it will severely underperform.”
Box Office Results: $30.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Biopics have varying capabilities at the box office and while this film could have been decently big, the ultimate result was a disappointment.

Guardians of the Galaxy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s Marvel’s only release this year and could be the one Disney pushes most for the Visual Effects category, if not Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. With two entirely-CGI characters, plus heavy makeup effects on two other characters, the film could secure nominations in two categories, Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling, but could also make appearances in the two sound categories.”
Oscar Results: It seems to be shaping up as a strong contender in the creative and tech categories, but has been building attention and could sneak into a few above-the-line categories with enough support, though it’s still a long shot.
Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Based on a series of comics that aren’t as widely known as The Avengers, Disney and Marvel are trying to launch a new franchise outside of its current universe, but with light ties to the existing one. The trailer also focuses more on the comic aspects of the film rather than the action, which might put butts in seats. However, without that unequivocal familiarity, the film might have trouble gaining a toe-hold within the superhero universe.”
Box Office Results: $332.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] Far outpacing expectations, Guardians of the Galaxy touched on a cultural zeitgeist that even the initial launch of Marvel’s Avengers line could never have imagined.

AUGUST 8, 2014

The Hundred-Foot Journey

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Apart from Helen Mirren competing for her annual nomination, the film doesn’t look like the type that scores Oscar nominations. I don’t even think Mirren could float this one to Oscar. She may get a lot of nominations, but she’s no Meryl Streep.”
Oscar Results: Mirren got nominated for the Golden Globe, but the film will otherwise be easily dismissed.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. August has been surprisingly lucrative for non-traditional moviegoers. Audiences made films like The Help, Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Live solid performers at the box office. This could help Helen Mirren’s new film, which is also based on a popular book like those three films, which could bolster its chances at the box office. However, with the heavy focus on Indian and French cultures, it might not be as popular at the box office as those other three films.”
Box Office Results: $54.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While not the blockbuster producers had likely hoped for, the film did respectable mid-level business.

Into the Storm

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Without a blockbuster status, the film’s visual effects aren’t likely to trigger the Oscar certainty Twister had and even that film failed to beat out Independence Day for the Oscar.”
Oscar Results: There will be no Oscars (or nominations) in this film’s future.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Advertising has been minimal and with no major stars attached, the film will have to sell itself on the action-heavy visual effects sequences. Tornado films don’t have much of a track record at the box office, but there have been too few to say that will be a contributing factor. Twister was the last major film to feature the deadly weather phenomena, adjusted for inflation, that film’s $241 million becomes $444 million, which is quite a total. This film just doesn’t have the potential or the foundation to make a play for anything even remotely close to that.”
Box Office Results: $47.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Performing about as expected, the film had no major stars and didn’t get any kind of buzz built before opening.

Step Up: All In

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The law of diminishing returns applies very well to this franchise. After a strong performance with the first film, each subsequent outing has made less and less money. Ergo, this one will become the weakest performer of the franchise to date, though that might not spell the end of the series.”
Box Office Results: $14.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The franchise may finally have hit its final outing, with a box office performance that’s far below the already-decreasing results of the past several films.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first attempt at a big screen franchise back in 1990 was a surprise hit taking in $135 million then. The subsequent films had a quick drop off in box office takes, so it was quickly shelved. They tried unsuccessfully to reboot the franchise in 2007, so 7 years later they hope to reverse course. This time, they are hyping the Michael Bay connection (he’s a producer and little else), which could bring it extra attention; However, I haven’t heard anyone whose supremely excited for the trailers that have been out, so it could also end up a costly dud like it did in 2007.”
Box Office Results: $191.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] While Michael Bay’s own feature didn’t exactly ignite the box office, his production skills picked up a hit with a cultural touchstone revitalized.

AUGUST 15, 2014

The Expendables 3

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Fading. That’s how a lot of franchises end up once they’ve worn out their welcome. The first Expendables was enough of a hit that they added other former action stars and came out with a sequel two years later that took a drop at the box office from its predecessor. That hasn’t stopped Sylvester Stallone and company from adding yet more action stars and trying again. I suspect this one will continue the steady decline and as long as these actors don’t demand more money, the fourth scheduled installment should go off without a hitch.”
Box Office Results: $39.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The franchise is dying and can’t possibly survive this level of flop, not with that many egos involved.

The Giver

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film looks an awful lot like multi-Oscar nominee Pleasantville and it’s been long enough that some may have forgotten it. However, I suspect the film will require a lot of support from critics to truly rise out of Pleasantville’s shadow and pick up some Oscar nominations. It would also help if the film became a contender for a Best Picture nomination, which I seriously doubt.”
Oscar Results: Comparison to any past films are about all this film will have, because the Oscars are going to bite.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The Giver is a widely popular young adult novel that producers are hoping will turn out readers to the film and make it another hit. The film can’t have a sequel because of where the book ends, but the trailer doesn’t give one hope that it will be as faithful to the book as it needs to be. If there’s even a whiff of dishonesty about the film, its chances fade fast. Of course, a fairly faithful adaptation could have the opposite effect and result in a nice box office tally.”
Box Office Results: $45.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It did better than I expected, but it’s just another in a long line of tween-targeted flops.

Let’s Be Cops

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While August isn’t the doldrums it used to be, there are certain types of films that attempt August launches that will be lucky to become sleeper hits. This film could tap into the Ride Along zeitgeist and become an unqualified hit. However, Damon Wayans Jr. hasn’t exactly had the best luck at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $82.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it wasn’t the R-rated hit that typically arrives in August, it was enough of a success to suggest a sequel may be in store.

AUGUST 22, 2014

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The first film was talked about as a potential nominee in Production Design, Costume Design and especially Cinematography. It was completely ignored. More of the same awaits this film.”
Oscar Results: Not a chance.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Nine years ago, Sin City became a decent-sized April hit, tapping into a market that was happy to buy into the noir style that would eventually launch the Zack Snyder generation. However, that’s a long time to wait for a long-in-development sequel. This time, the cast has been switched around putting a number of actors who’ve not had success at the box office together and hoping to draw millions of viewers who were fans of the original. I suspect the same type of drop-off as the 300 films will likely occur.”
Box Office Results: $13.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It was apparently too long a span between the original and its sequel as audiences had no interest in taking in the sequel.

If I Stay

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. An untested director with an actress who hasn’t been a box office darling, this should be an interesting experiment in counter-programming when it’s the only woman-friendly title at the Cineplex.”
Box Office Results: $50.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It may have exceeded my personal expectations, but producers were likely hoping to turn this into a big, weepy hit.

When the Game Stands Tall

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. The high school football genre has had some successes, but most of the films have been mid-range performers that struggled without a major star at the helm. Jim Caviezel isn’t that star.”
Box Office Results: $30.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Sports films just don’t do well at the box office, which is a bit surprising. This film’s lack of traction with audiences is still a disappointment for producers.

AUGUST 29, 2014

As Above, So Below

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Another found footage horror film is looking for a August boost from audiences who have been increasingly uninterested in horror films, at least ones that don’t seem to offer anything new. While there are some weird things going on in the trailer, it just doesn’t feel like it’s sold the film enough to make it a mid-sized hit.”
Box Office Results: $21.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] No love for this subterranean horror film, making yet another horror flop in a year that hasn’t had nearly as many successes as the recent past has seen.

The November Man

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Pierce Brosnan is the latest aging celebrity to try and revive his career as an aging secret agent (or action star or what have you). Liam Neeson’s huge successes are getting to people and I just can’t imagine this film roaring into the box office with any measurable success.”
Box Office Results: $25.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Pierce Brosnan won’t be becoming an aging box office star. Only Liam Neeson seems to be able to tap into that market.

ANNOUNCED FILMS THAT DIDN’T RELEASE

Jessabelle

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The genre has been hit-or-miss recently and I don’t know that it will let up for this film. The supernatural elements may help turn it into an unqualified hit for the genre, but I’m not optimistic.”
Thoughts: Originally announced for August 29, 2014, it was pushed back to November 7, 2014. However, no box office data has been revealed and the film doesn’t have an altered release date. It’s disappearance is somewhat mysterious. If it indeed was released, the studio may just have chosen to suppress the numbers to avoid the sheer embarrassment of film’s performance.

The Loft

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. It might be an interesting concept, but nothing about this film sounds like a major player at the box office.”
Thoughts: The film has been rescheduled for January 30, 2015.