Summer is already in full swing, but some of the year’s biggest hitters are still on deck.

June 6, 2014

Edge of Tomorrow

Premise: From IMDb: “A soldier fighting in a war with aliens finds himself caught in a time loop of his last day in the battle, though he becomes better skilled along the way.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Mediocre. Although science fiction has been doing well at the box office, Tom Cruise has had trouble tapping into that market. Other than guaranteed successes in franchises, Cruise’s original films have been successful, but not much so. This is around the average of his non-tentpole efforts and although he’s got a prime Summer position, there’s too much before and after to keep him in the money for long.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Just like audiences don’t care if Tom Cruise stars in a new movie, the Oscars don’t seem to care if he’s in one either. Most of the films he’s been in in the last few years have failed to muster support for Oscar nominations, so don’t expect much here. If it does show up, only the sound and visual effects categories are possibilities.

The Fault in Our Stars

Premise: From IMDb: “Hazel and Gus are two teenagers who share an acerbic wit, a disdain for the conventional, and a love that sweeps them on a journey. Their relationship is all the more miraculous given that Hazel’s other constant companion is an oxygen tank, Gus jokes about his prosthetic leg, and they met and fell in love at a cancer support group.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Mediocre. Some think that this film will be a hit since it’s based on a popular book. However, the conventional nature of the trailer and the lack of recognizable faces (Shailene Woodley now has the Divergent hit bolstering her visibility, but looks little like her familiar self in the trailer) won’t give the film much versatility at the box office. It could be a word-of-mouth hit, but that didn’t help films like The Spectacular Now or The Perks of Being a Wallflower.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. If critics love the film, it could be an Oscar contender, but it will require a sizable box office to be remembered by year end. A 6-month window for an indie drama that has no guarantee of box office legs won’t be helpful. It could still prove attractive to Oscar voters if the stars align.

June 13, 2014

22 Jump Street

Premise: From IMDb: “After making their way through high school (twice), big changes are in store for officers Schmidt and Jenko when they go deep undercover at a local college.”
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Expectations: Decent. The first film was a nearly-$140 million success. That’s enough for a sequel, but sequel fatigue often sets in no matter how popular a prior film was. There are exceptions to this rule, but I doubt this will be one of them.
Oscar Prospects: None.

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Premise: From IMDb: “It’s been five years since Hiccup and Toothless successfully united dragons and vikings on the island of Berk. While Astrid, Snotlout and the rest of the gang are challenging each other to dragon races (the island’s new favorite contact sport), the now inseparable pair journey through the skies, charting unmapped territories and exploring new worlds. When one of their adventures leads to the discovery of a secret ice cave that is home to hundreds of new wild dragons and the mysterious Dragon Rider, the two friends find themselves at the center of a battle to protect the peace. Now, Hiccup and Toothless must unite to stand up for what they believe while recognizing that only together do they have the power to change the future of both men and dragons.”
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first film stunned with a tally north of $200 million. I think the sequel will climb beyond that. Animated sequels frequently do better than their predecessors when the subsequent chapter seems necessary. How to Train Your Dragon is one of DreamWorks’ most popular animated films and with very little in the way of family entertainment over the Summer, it could climb even higher than predicted.
Oscar Prospects: Good. If the first film hadn’t been up against awards juggernaut Toy Story 3, it would have handily won Best Animated Feature. This time out, the film has notably weaker competition, but will have to be equal or better than the original to be taken seriously for consideration. Animated sequels have been disappointing in recent years, so it may not be able to live up to expectations.

The Rover (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A loner tracks the gang who stole his car from a desolate town in the Australian outback with the forced assistance of a wounded guy left behind in the wake of the theft.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Poor. David Michod’s prior film, Animal Kingdom had no big names, but plenty of good notices. That didn’t help its box office profile. Four years later, his directorial follow-up has bigger names attached (Guy Pearce and Robert Pattinson), so it could do much better than Animal Kingdom, but Pattinson and Pearce haven’t done any major box office work in some years, so don’t count on it.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Animal Kingdom earned Jacki Weaver her first Oscar nomination. However, the film was otherwise ignored. This time out, I’m sure there will be a modest push for the film to get some consideration, but it would have to be damned good and the acting would have to be near-miraculous to be much of a competitor this early in the year.

June 20, 2014

Jersey Boys

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of four young men from the wrong side of the tracks in New Jersey who came together to form the iconic 1960s rock group The Four Seasons.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Good. When Clint Eastwood directs, people pay attention, but if he’s not the star the box office doesn’t align. His typical total in recent years has been around $35 million for non-starring roles. What makes this film different is that it’s a departure of genres for him. He hasn’t directed a music-oriented film since his Oscar-winning 1988 film Bird about Charlie “Bird” Parker. This touches on the same ground as Bird, which won’t necessarily help the box office, but the film will be quite popular with older audiences who are familiar with Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons. Musicals in recent years have also done quite well with most pulling in around $100 million if the base for the adaptation is well known. I’m cautiously predicting on the lower end since the musical hasn’t had time to grow in the estimation of audiences like Les Misérables did.
Oscar Prospects: Like Les Mis, a big musical adaptation should have an easy road to the Oscars even if it’s received with little enthusiasm by critics. Add the Eastwood name and this becomes one of the more likely contenders for Oscar consideration in several categories, including the most likely nod in Best Sound Mixing if nowhere else.

Think Like a Man Too

Premise: From IMDb: “All the couples are back for a wedding in Las Vegas, but plans for a romantic weekend go awry when their various misadventures get them into some compromising situations that threaten to derail the big event.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Good. The first film was one of the most popular in its genre. It may have been awhile since the prior film, but I’m certain it’s well regarded and remembered with the demographic producers expect to turn out.
Oscar Prospects: None.

June 27, 2014

Transformers: Age of Extinction

Premise: From IMDb: “An automobile mechanic and his daughter make a discovery that brings down the Autobots and Decepticons – and a paranoid government official – on them.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Good. Without Shia LaBoeuf, one might be tempted to say that the Transformers series will feel too different to be as successful as its predecessors. The change in style and time period may have an impact, but Michael Bay commands large attendance for his action films even if the critics hate them. I don’t see this film not doing well even considering what changes have gone through.
Oscar Prospects: Good. This franchise has secured several Oscar nominations, deserved or not. There’s little doubt the film will still figure in the sound and visual effects categories. Anywhere else is impossible.

Snowpiercer (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In a future where a failed global-warming experiment kills off all life on the planet except for a lucky few that boarded the Snowpiercer, a train that travels around the globe, where a class system evolves.”
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Expectations: Average. The public fight over the film’s editing won’t matter much to audiences who don’t seem to love Korean imports. It could be a breakaway hit, but I suspect it will have a mid-level genre performance at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Harvey Weinstein won’t actively promote a film that he lost the battle on (the director won the publicity battle), so don’t expect this to be a major competitor. Those who’ve seen it suggest Tilda Swinton is a powerful force to be reckoned with, but I doubt she’ll make it to year’s end. If the editors want to support Joon-ho Bong in his desire to have full artistic control, the directors or the editors could give the film a nod, though I doubt they’ll remember to do so.