March 7-9, 2014

300: Rise of an Empire

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The first film was a huge success leading to an unsurprising sequel. However, it’s been so long since the first film came out, most of the original cast is gone (because, of course, they died), and the director is new. The previews have shown more of the same, but we’ve seen plenty of similar films in recent years buckle under disinterest. I think this will be just such a situation.”
Box Office Results: $106.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I underestimated the film’s staying power, though I rightly predicted it wouldn’t hold a candle to its predecessor. Passing $100 million is a sizable feat, but when the original film more than doubled that, it will likely mean the film doesn’t earn its place as a trilogy.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. If the film actually turns out to be good, it could follow The Croods’ example to an Oscar nomination. That film was also released early in the year and wasn’t beloved, but made boatloads and secured a nod anyway.”
Oscar Results: It was better reviewed than The Croods but made quite a bit less at the box office. The two combined could help, but 20th Century Fox Animation has a better chance at a nomination later this year (Book of Life), so unless that one tanks with critics, Mr. Peabody will likely be forgotten.
Box Office Prediction: $210 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Animated movies, even when they suck, can still be box office hits and this continuously flogged animated film is certain to build an audience in spite of likely disdain from critics. How high it will go is a mystery, though I’d be glad to be wrong with my figure.”
Box Office Results: $111.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Animation has taken a hit this year and the first sign of that was the solid, but not superb box office performance of Mr. Peabody & Sherman. The Lego Movie seemed to have drained all the interest and creative energy out of the medium as Mr. Peabody wouldn’t be the last animated film to underwhelm at the box office.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Although Anderson failed to secure a Best Picture nomination for Moonrise Kingdom, he got plenty of attention from critics and a PGA nom. This time, the cast is larger and if the film is better, it could be an early contender for several nominations, including Best Original Screenplay.”
Oscar Results: Critics loved the film and it managed to beat Wes Anderson’s prior to box office performer by about $7 million (not accounting for inflation). That could be enough to get it noticed by the Academy, but stiff competition this year is likely to challenge the ability of indies to make it to the final countdown.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Wes Anderson is one of a handful of indie filmmakers that haven’t tried to branch out into box office kingpin status and are happy enough to do mid-range business. I see this one continuing that trend fairly easily.”
Box Office Results: $58.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] He passed prior expectations, topped his last film’s box office tally and earned plenty of press. It was everything you could hope for as an indie success.

March 14-16, 2014

Need for Speed

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I love Aaron Paul from his work in Breaking Bad, but he’s yet to prove he can topline a movie. That isn’t stopping producers from giving it a go. The film’s previews look fairly generic, which may hinder the film’s chances.”
Box Office Results: $43.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Audiences just weren’t interested in a Fast & Furious clone without the same cast. Aaron Paul hasn’t yet become a box office draw, so it’s no surprise he couldn’t bring people to the box office.

Tyler Perry’s Single Moms Club

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Even when Tyler Perry’s box office numbers are off, they are still fairly reliable, so this film should do well. Where I think it might succeed more than others is in that the cross-demographic cast could genuinely appeal to more audiences than his standard fare.”
Box Office Results: $15.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What happened to Tyler Perry? He used to be one of the most successful and perpetually winning directors putting out black films. In recent years his influence and pull seems to have diminished to a point where even audiences who were amused by the trailer didn’t seem to turn up to the theater. Maybe they’re just now realizing how weak he is as a filmmaker.

Veronica Mars (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The show was popular and it has its legions of fans, but this Kickstarter-backed film is opening limited and will have to perform tremendously well to make much of an impact. I’m not sure its fans will be able to accomplish that.”
Box Office Results: $3.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] When you give all of your Kickstarter supporters a copy of the film to download for free, there aren’t many left to go see it at theaters. It also didn’t help that it was a day-and-date VOD release. In all, the total isn’t bad those factors considered.

March 21-23, 2014

Divergent

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Last year’s crop of tween adaptations wasn’t as good as we expected them to be, but the advertising campaign surrounding this one along with its very popular source material could help the franchise break the Tween Curse.”
Box Office Results: $150.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] The tween franchise mantle has finally been passed. After several attempts to boot up new franchises to make a mint, Divergent was the first to do boffo business. It didn’t perform nearly as well as The Hunger Games, but coming in roughly $40 million under where Twilight started isn’t a bad place to begin.

Muppets Most Wanted

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film nabbed an Oscar for Best Original Song and could be a contender again this year if the film has a qualifying song. Also, releasing this early in the year may put a damper on its Oscar chances even with Original Song.”
Oscar Results: Critics liked the film, but not incredibly well. There are plenty of original songs to consider and it could still eke out a nomination there, but it won’t win and there weren’t any other categories it really could have competed in anyway.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The film has its fans, but sequels to Muppets films have historically struggled. While the reboot was popular, it wasn’t a genuine blockbuster, so the second film’s chances are muted. However, I think it should be able to perform on par with its predecessor, possibly a little better.”
Box Office Results: $51.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Perhaps we look back at the $88 million The Muppets took in three years ago and think that it was a rousing success. Those numbers aren’t really that impressive in retrospect suggesting the potential was muted at best. The sequel proved that even with big name talent, you can’t make a hit out of a sequel even if it is more like the original franchise than the reboot was.

Stretch

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. It may have a big star, but nothing about the film seems to shout “watch me!” It almost sounds like something Eddie Murphy might have starred in back in the ’80s. I don’t suspect it would have the same impact today.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film’s release date has been changed to “unknown.”

Bad Words (Expanding)

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The producers are hoping that Jason Bateman is one of the reasons people went to see Identity Thief, but they may be sorely disappointed. They are starting out limited and moving wide, which might not build the word of mouth they want.”
Box Office Results: $7.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s becoming obvious that starting a foul-mouthed comedy in limited release isn’t likely to get audiences to the theater when it finally expands. Bad Words had passable reviews, but couldn’t manage to click with viewers.

Nymphomaniac, Part 1

Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Lars Von Trier has never been a box office power house and most of his films find only a niche audience. This film, which will likely carry an NC-17 rating in the U.S. will find it difficult to make much, especially bein broken into two films. That said, curiosity might give it a sizable boost.”
Box Office Results: $785.9 K
Thoughts: [Flop] No one was curious. No one seemed to care. The NC-17 rating wasn’t the death knell, the lackluster reviews were.

March 28-30, 2014

A Haunted House 2

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. The spoof genre isn’t what it used to be and none of the films have really been unqualified box office successes since Scary Movie. Hopes for a change are hung on this sequel to the popular first film. I’m not sure it can succeed, but they will certainly try.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film’s release date was pushed back to April. I will review its performance at that time.

Noah

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. The film has technical wizardry all over the place and Aronofsky is no longer a stranger to Oscar. While the film might not make it into the Best Picture race, it should corner the market on tech and creative nominations, or at least figure prominently in the competition.”
Oscar Results: There’s still a good chance the film makes inroads with the Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories, but with limited box office success and sharply-divided critics, Oscar may look elsewhere for its biblical fix.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Alone, Darren Aronofsky has been modestly popular, especially with the indie crowd. This is his first mega blockbuster and with the biblical themes, I have little doubt the film will be a blockbuster. Of course, rumor has it he made some controversial changes and additions to the story which could anger Christian conservatives who may make a dash to see it and then quickly turn away. However, if it’s even remotely faithful to the “message,” it could be one of the year’s biggest films.”
Box Office Results: $101.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It wasn’t the blockbuster I expected, it was still a limited success. Audiences went to see why everyone considered it anathema to the bible story and may have left disappointed by a film that was bat-shit crazy at times.

Sabotage

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film hasn’t had a lot of press yet and I can’t imagine the film will generate much buzz. The plot sounds interesting, but the title doesn’t fit and Arnold Schwarzeneggar isn’t the powerhouse he used to be, even if he keeps trying.”
Box Office Results: $10.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Aging action stars just can’t muster box office support in this day and age. Only The Expendables has managed to be a win for them and even that franchise is fading quickly.

Cesar Chavez (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film’s first trailer doesn’t look that interesting, a type of paint-by-numbers biopic. However, if it’s better than it looks, there could be a push for some recognition for the film. The problem is the release window. Too early in the year is far worse than being too late.”
Oscar Results: The film received terrible reviews and was a box office disappointment. There’s no way the Academy will reward the film for that.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. As Instructions Not Included showed us last year, Hispanic audiences are clamoring for better representation at the box office and with a film about a labor hero like Cesar Chavez, they should show up in force.”
Box Office Results: $5.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even a celebrated figure like Cesar Chavez couldn’t draw Hispanics (or other audiences for that matter) to the theater.