February 7, 2014

The Lego Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It could be nominated for Best Animated Feature, but opening so early in the year might harm its chances.”
Oscar Results: Until the critics weighed in, there was no guarantee this obvious bit of product placement was going to strike a chord with Oscar voters. Now, it seems almost assured of being the film to win Best Animated Feature with the song “Everything Is Awesome” a fairly strong early contender for that prize. It won’t show up anywhere else, I don’t think, but it will be hard to beat.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The Lego animation properties that have proliferated the video gaming world have proven so popular the company thinks it can make a mint at the box office. The film’s few trailers haven’t been that exciting, but it could still do quite well with little family competition at this time of year.”
Box Office Results: $257.0 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] The film far exceeded expectations, becoming a sort of cultural touchstone for audiences of all ages. The critics loved it. Audiences loved it. This was the surprise of the year.

The Monuments Men

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It was thought to be one of the biggest contenders of last year, but was pushed into early 2014 presumably to avoid competition and go for a box office push instead of an Oscar push. Still, if it isn’t a bad movie, it could still end up a consideration for the Oscars next year, but that move didn’t help Gangster Squad from last year.”
Oscar Results: The film was dismissed by critics, which is a sure sign that the shift was not to make money at the box office, but to avoi it being an Oscar disappointment. It will still disappoint, it’s just that no one will remember it did.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It was pushed back to focus on a box office roll-out, but the trailers haven’t really given an indication that the film will be hugely successful. If it finds an audience, it could be.”
Box Office Results: $78.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] It wasn’t a blockbuster success, but its $78 million total is a terrific end result for this type of film.

February 14, 2014

About Last Night

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. I saw this trailer before American Hustle on Christmas day. It was a packed auditorium filled mostly with white audiences. Although the film is decidedly targeted at black audiences, there was a lot of laughter for the trailer, which suggests the film could have strong cross-over appeal and might break the traditional mold for this type of film. Of course, I could have been with an uncharacteristically open audience and the film has no cross-over appeal or it could be that people laugh but still wouldn’t make a night at the movies for it. We shall see.”
Box Office Results: $48.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Valentine’s Day had no real winners. The typical rmoantic-comedy heavy weekend failed to generate a major hit with this film doing the best among the female audience-targeted fare in release. It isn’t quite where I expected it could go, but it’s not an abysmal performance.

Endless Love

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Did anyone really need a remake of a film that earned much derision back when it was released? Not really. As recent romantic remakes prove, it’s not a genre that’s easy to mine for box office success and although it’s intended to capitalize on the Valentine’s Day holiday, there are a lot of films trying and this looks to be the third most likely to succeed of the three. If it’s a success, though, we may have to suffer through countless banal remakes of 80’s movies that most people have forgotten.”
Box Office Results: $23.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Proof that young couples don’t just run out to see any old remake and that studios should cease their vainglorious attempts at regurgitating anything and everything that was once popular in hopes of spending little money on an unqualified hit. It isn’t working very well.

RoboCop

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It might be nominated in the tech categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects), but I seriously doubt it.”
Oscar Results: With a box office tally like this, the likelihood of this remake earning Oscar attention like its predecessor is dismal.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Speaking of remakes no one asked for. The studio has front-loaded this film with major genre names like Michael Keaton and Samuel L. Jackson, so it’s possible the film could be hugely popular in spite of itself, but this is another genre that has struggled to find success with remakes.”
Box Office Results: $58.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Another example of how studios seem to be too focused on their attempt to revive long-dormant franchises with rebooted efforts that fail to drive up business from die hard fans who are probably so frustrated with such attempts that they stay home to spite them.

Vampire Academy

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Another example of studios trying to elicit a hit out of Young Adult properties. This mystical seriocomedy tackles vampires much like Twilight did, but without the must-see qualities. If they don’t revise the trailer, my prediction above could be far above what the film ultimately takes in. Against all the other competition on this weekend, I’d hazard to guess that the film might not even top $10 million.”
Box Office Results: $7.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This was worst performance to date by a tween-targeted young adult adaptation. The audience won’t just rush out to see any old adaptation and hopefully this will be the final stake in that Twilight-derived attempt at franchise building.

Winter’s Tale

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With Russell Crowe and Colin Farrell, it’s likely this film will perform better at the Valentine’s Day box office than anything else releasing. It’s period portion mixing with a modern love affair should bolster interest and may help float it to the top of the heap. Of course, this could be the bomb of the weekend and Endless Love surpass it. At this point, i don’t think that’s going to happen, but it could.”
Box Office Results: $12.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] What should have been a slam dunk was poorly received by critics and audiences didn’t seem to get the premise of the film enough to care what happened. It could have been a huge Valentine’s Day property, but was one of the trio of femme-targeted romances that failed to ignite.

February 21, 2014

3 Days to Kill

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Kevin Costner was never an action star, so this sudden change of directions might turn out to be like Liam Neeson’s sudden emergence as the most popular action star working today. Still, everything I’ve seen on the film so far makes it look like a Jason Statham movie without the Statham. Wether or not it exceeds expectations depends on the studio executing a much better marketing effor than so far seen and Pompeii being its own disaster of a release this weekend.”
Box Office Results: $30.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Costner just isn’t having a great time at the box office. All of his recent efforts to build a Liam Neeson-like late-career action career have been frustrated at every turn. This wasn’t far off my prediction, but it was well below the expected turn around for a film like this.

Pompeii

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Another tech-only contender, but ultimately I think Visual Effects is its best and only option and even that seems like a long shot.”
Oscar Results: A box office dud from February won’t be remembered by voting time, so don’t even bother considering this one.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While I’m sure it will be mildly popular, it also faces a similar fate to The Legend of Hercules. It’s a film that’s heavily reliant on visual effects and hopes to tell a love story. That the film throws in a ridiculously fictitious love story into a disaster that literally killed people in their sleep because they didn’t realize it was coming, suggests that the ridiculousness will utlimately lead to failure at the box office. That is if anyone actually knows anything about the disaster.”
Box Office Results: $23.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Very few people opted to see the film, looking more like a Greek myth than a critical natural disaster.

The Wind Rises

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Unless Disney/Touchstone launches a massive advertising blitz, the film is likely to perform just as well as any of Miyazaki’s other American releases. His most popular film didn’t eclipse $15 million at the box office and that film was largely dismissed as inferior (Ponyo). Even adjusted for inflation, his most famous films (Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke) didn’t perform above $15 million. I don’t have much hope for Miyazaki’s last film, but a superb marketing campaign might help.”
Box Office Results: $5.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Time was not kind to Miyazaki, neither was Disney. Of course, the very adult nature of the film’s plot may have been a turn off to fans of his child-friendly aesthetic.

February 28, 2014

Non-Stop

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Apart from his Taken films, Liam Neeson is still a modest box office star, but it’s no doubt he has quite a bit of pull. This film looks more in line with his Taken wheelhouse than his last few outings, so it’s very likely, it will tkae off, especially considering there’s no other competition. I could also be entirely overestimating its potential. The last Neeson film didn’t do overwhelmingly great box office and audiences may only respond to the Taken films, not anything else he does. Time will tell, but I’m leaning towards success at this juncture..”
Box Office Results: $91.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Liam Neeson does it again. This will cement his status as the only go-to actor for aging leading men in action films, which is something of a shame.

Son of God

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This is one of those situations where it’s impossible to know how audiences will become interested in the film. The Passion of the Christ this film isn’t, but it tackles a broader history of the life of Jesus than Mel Gibson’s film did. However, it’s unlikely to be as violent, which might not make it as sensational a film as Passion was. Still, it’s likely Church Groups will turn this into an Easter phenomenon, but how big will it be? That’s not certain. Apart from Gibson’s film, the next highest grossing Christian-themed film is The Nativity Story with less than $40 million receipts. Several films are in the mid-$30 million range, so I’d normally expect this film to finish around there, but something makes me think that there’s going to be a bigger push to make this a huge event, just like they tried to turn Passion into an annual go-to film for Christians. That didn’t work. I’m not sure this will, but I’m hedging my bets to the high end.”
Box Office Results: $59.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It didn’t finish in the $40 million range of other similar films, nor did it quite reach my prediction. However, this performance for a film that was largely a re-edit of a film that played on television suggests the market will continue to push out Christian-oriented films in the hopes of turning a modest profit.

Welcome to Yesterday

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s ben almost no advertising for the film so far and although teen-targeted sci-fi/action films have done decently well in recent years, apart from a few exceptions, they’ve all generally been modest bombs. I don’t see this one really catching fire, but I could be surprised.”
Box Office Results: N/A (NEVER RELEASED)