October 3, 2015

Annabelle

Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The Conjuring was a sizable horror hit and a sequel to a popular film tends to be popular in tandem. While I don’t expect this one to quite match its predecessor, I think a solid outing for October could be expected.”
Box Office Results: $84.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] There’s still some bite left in the genre, but it still seems to be suffering from deja-vu syndrome. Even a spin-off of the highly successful Conjurin film couldn’t managed to do more than expected business.

Gone Girl

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Fincher is one of the unheralded modern directors the Academy seems most on the verge of recognizing. Although he should have already been Oscared twice, this could be his year, but a lot depends on the competition.”
Oscar Results: The film never resonated with Oscar voters and resulted in only a single nomination for Best Actress (Rosamund Pike). The film could have fared much better, but the early release against more formidable competition kept it out of the Oscar competition in any major way.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. David Fincher’s box office history has been very strong in spite of his sometimes more cerebral elements. With Ben Affleck in lead and a fascinating murder mystery to boot, I see little problem with this film topping the century mark.”
Box Office Results: $167.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Fincher is a consistent draw at the box office. His films, in spite of difficult subjects, still manage to make plenty of money. That the film had a built in audience of the book’s fans may have helped.

Left Behind

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While not all Christian-oriented films are box office behemoths, the combination of a popular novel and a charged environment that has made Christian films perform better than they have historically, it seems like Nicolas Cage might have his first hit in some time.”
Box Office Results: $14.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Perhaps rebooting the Left Behind franchise wasn’t a wise move. Perhaps casting Nicolas Cage in said reboot was inadvisable. Either way, the film flopped hard, which won’t dampen the desire to get more faith-based films into the Cineplex, but it does show that even that type of film can have limited appeal.

The Good Lie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. If it weren’t for the strong word of mouth on her film Wild, Witherspoon might have had some minor, but unlikely chatter about this role. Uplifting films do hit Academy voter interests, but this one seems almost too generic. Critics will determine its fate.”
Oscar Results: Witherspoon’s focus on Wild pretty much assured this film would get lost in the shuffle and it did.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Reese Witherspoon has never been a box office darling and this film, despite its uplifting nature, just isn’t going to be the film to lead her to success.”
Box Office Results: $2.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film’s feel good vibe just couldn’t overcome a tepid response in limited release, so the film never really made it wide. That stifled its box office prospects significantly.

Men, Women & Children

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The last two films Reitman put out had potential, but the critics weren’t that impressed. If they are more enamored with this project, he could be back at the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: Critics didn’t support Reitman’s latest effort, so it’s no surprise the film had no Oscar legs.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Jason Reitman had some success at the box office when he was doing big Oscar work, but since then his films have been failing to catch on. If this is an Oscar contender, I fully expect it to perform well at the box office. If not, you can probably lower my prediction by $45 million.”
Box Office Results: $705 K
Thoughts: [Flop] The box office is not kind to auteurs who’ve fallen on hard times and this disappointing result may ultimately lead to Reitman’s inability to get much made in the near future.

October 10, 2015

Addicted

Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. It’s opening wide, but has no major stars and doesn’t seem to have a premise that demands repeat viewership. I suspect the film will not open well and might barely make the top ten in its first week.”
Box Office Results: $17.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It didn’t help that virtually no one had heard of the movie prior to release and other than a few viewers from especially narrow demographics turned out, the film was a complete failure. It never opened wide, either, which certainly hurt its potential.

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Disney seems to be struggling lately with its live-action films, none of which have performed very well at the box office. This could break that trend as its based on a hugely popular novel and features Steve Carell doing what people like best from him.”
Box Office Results: $66.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Disney can still do wrong as their live action output has proven countless times. Sticking a well known funny man into a kid’s movie has always generated mixed results and while this wasn’t a complete box office disappointment, I’m certain Disney expected much better returns when they gave it the go ahead.

The Judge

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There’s buzz surrounding the film, Downey Jr. and supporting actor Robert Duvall. I could see Duvall picking up another career-based nomination, but so far the movie doesn’t seem like Oscar bait.”
Oscar Results: As I suspected, Duvall was the only one with any traction for the film and in spite of the poor response from critics, the film failed to generate anything outside of Duvall’s nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With Robert Downey Jr. at the top of the billing, this has to be seen as a decent prospect at the box office. However, the premise doesn’t seem nearly as engaging as it would need to be to make lots of money at the box office. If critics support it and the Oscars begin taking notice, it could do much better than predicted.”
Box Office Results: $47.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it certainly beat my expectations, especially for a small drama starring Robert Downey Jr. outside of his Iron Man guise, I’m sure the studio had hoped to parlay his stardom into a better box office result, which they didn’t get.

Kill the Messenger

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The premise would play well at the box office if political pictures were doing better with audiences. Unfortunately, they aren’t, which could mean this film has to sustain itself on positive word of mouth. That might help a little, but I can’t see this one doing much better than predicted.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Never getting a wide release prevents most films from picking up steam at the box office and this political thriller just never ignited at the specialty box office and thus didn’t get pushed to the majors.

Whiplash

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film has some minor Oscar potential based on its positive reception on the festival circuit, but other than J.K. Simmons in supporting actor, I can’t imagine where it would place.”
Oscar Results: I was wrong on this one. Not only was Simmons poised to take home the most assured Oscar of the night, the film also managed to pick up multiple nominations, including Best Picture and then take home awards for Simmons, Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing. A fairly impressive haul for such a small film.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The concept might be enough to make it some bank on the specialty circuit, but beyond that it doesn’t seem like a cross-over kind of hit.”
Box Office Results: $12.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE AND LIKELY TO INCREASE A GREAT DEAL AFTER ITS OSCAR WINS)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For an indie, this one has legs and with three Oscar wins, a push could be made to send the total up even higher.

October 17, 2015

The Best of Me

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The idea has merit and the stars are appealing enough that it could generate some decent heat at the box office, but a hit I doubt it will be.”
Box Office Results: $26.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Is the Nicolas Sparks Era over? Probably not, but this hugely disappointing result and drubbing by critics may make producers pause before greenlighting another film without significantly more control.

Book of Life

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. There aren’t a lot of hits for the Oscars to take under their wings so far this year, so this one, if any good, could be one of the few.”
Oscar Results: There were five big studio efforts going after an Oscar nomination in Animated Feature. Then there was this film and two smaller independent animated films. It was inevitable, considering history, that one spot would go to a small film and this was the film that stepped aside from one of the smaller films.
Box Office Prediction: $130 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While Fox hasn’t had a lot of non-Ice Age hits, it’s possible this one bolsters itself on the strong increase in attendance from Spanish-speaking audiences. That addition should help alleviate some of the burn off from those white audiences who aren’t as enamored with the animation style or Hispanic premise.”
Box Office Results: $50.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What a disappointing result for a film that had so much marketing built up behind it. Even the worst of the DreamWorks films never had a flop as bad as this. Unfortunately, the Disney Dia De La Muerta film is much more likely to hit than this film did.

Dracula Untold

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s not strictly a horror film, so building on the Halloween box office concept isn’t likely and the trailer doesn’t promise a film that’s all that different from the myriad other stylistic horror-esque films of recent memory. I suspect this one will do poorly overall, especially against stronger content for general audiences.”
Box Office Results: $56.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] In spite of a cheesy concept and a questionable pedigree, the film still managed to exceed expectations, though a blockbuster hit it was not.

Fury

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Brad Pitt has done much better with the Academy in recent years and, as a result, his chances of a win keep increasing. This seems like the kind of role that could certainly nab him a Best Actor nod, but if the film is as good as it has the potential to be, it could be Oscar catnip.”
Oscar Results: The film got solid reviews, but for some reason it never jumped into the Oscar race with any measurable tenacity, dooming it to being forgotten even on the technical side.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. War films aren’t always easy to predict at the box office. Sometimes they do far more than expected, sometimes far less. In this case, the presence of Brad Pitt may bolster the film’s chances, but the trailers suggest that the film will have a heavy anti-war bent to it, which could keep a lot of more “patriotic” folk away muting it’s chances.”
Box Office Results: $85.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Putting Brad Pitt front-and-center of the advertising campaign helped as well as expected with the war film outperforming most similar films to end up with a sizable chunk of October business, coming in second overall for the month.

Birdman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The critics seem to be enthusiastic about the film and many are suggesting this could be Michael Keaton’s chance at an Oscar. The film is eclectic looking, but with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu behind it, you should definitely not count it out (all four of his previous films, Amores Perros, 21 Grams, Babel and Biutiful were Oscar nominees, three of them in acting categories.”
Oscar Results: Tied for most nominations of the evening, Birdman came out on top with four awards, including Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Cinematography. It could not, however, topple the formidable Eddie Redmayne to secure Michael Keaton an Oscar, which is certainly a shame.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I’m hedging my bets here suggesting that it will be a surprise hit after it makes its run of the specialty box office. The premise is a bit oblique for some audiences, but the presence of Michael Keaton deconstructing his post-Batman fame (or lack thereof) could appeal to a whole generation of comic book fans who grew up on the Tim Burton films.”
Box Office Results: $40.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE AND LIKELY TO INCREASE A GREAT DEAL AFTER ITS OSCAR WINS)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Unfortunately, the film never got the boost of fanboy attendance I had hedged on, but it’s done quite well at the specialty box office, securing one of the best performances of the year there and with the Oscars just recently over, it could easily leap, though my original prediction seems way out of the realm of possibility now (especially since it’s now out on DVD).

Camp X-Ray

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. I have seen Stewart mentioned once as a possible Oscar nominee. That one time is enough to require comment. While it’s interesting to see Stewart tackle a role (soldier) that doesn’t require anything remotely emotional; however, she’s not even come close to proving herself a capable actress and the Academy isn’t going to give her the time of day, no matter how good she is.”
Oscar Results: No Oscar chatter for this film.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: ” Poor. Friendship in Guantanamo Bay between an inmate and a female soldier sounds like just the type of hokum that gets utterly ignored by audiences. Not only will it be too political, Kristen Stewart has shown no affinity for winning viewers at the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $9.8 K
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] An anemic box office result for a film with a semi-popular star is definitely not a booster for her career.

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. In recent years, the Academy’s animation branch has given recognition to small efforts, not submitted by the major studios. One potent player in that game is GKids. Their ability to snag Oscar nominations might some day become the stuff of legend. They represent this film and should have little trouble appealing to the Academy’s anime fans to get it a nomination. A win is entirely unlikely, though.”
Oscar Results: I was exactly right and that they pulled in two of their films for nominations pretty much assures that from this point forward, no one will doubt GKids as a nomination-getter.
Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Anime films out of Japan seldom dominate the American box office, which should be the case with this film. If legendary Hayao Miyazaki has to struggle at the box office, I don’t see this film having a better opportunity.”
Box Office Results: $678 K (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Flop] While they may be able to parlay their success as a studio with Oscar nominations, getting them seen by audiences is a bit trickier. Hayao Miyazaki remains the only anime director who’s been able to generate any success at the box office, so it should be no surprise that this film didn’t do that well.

October 24, 2015

Laggies

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A modestly likable cast, this film doesn’t feel like a box office magnet, meaning it might do better on a platform release rather than a direct-wide release.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It never ended up in wide release as was initially expected. That and the film’s lack of major stars and adequate advertising make this result entirely unsurprising.

Ouija

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While films about possession have done well recently at the box office, most of them have featured adults being scared out of their wits. The traditional model of teens-in-peril hasn’t been generating the type of box office success it used to. combining the two might result in a box office force, but I suspect a solid, but not exceptional tally is more in the offing.”
Box Office Results: $50.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The box office still supports horror films, especially on opening weekend, but even then finding a new mega hit seems like a questionable prospect.

St. Vincent

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Knowing little to nothing about the film will make it hard to assure what kind of Oscar contender it is. Some who’ve seen it think it might be, but it hasn’t really had much of a festival roll-out yet, so we’ll just have to wait and see at this point.”
Oscar Results: The film ended up placing in a number of places for awards consideration, but it was never taken seriously as an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has been kept largely under wraps since it was originally supposed to debut earlier this year. It has a kind of Wes Anderson vibe, but without the Wes Anderson flair. That might give it legs at the specialty box office, but becoming a break-out hit might be a bit more difficult.”
Box Office Results: $44.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] What started out as an indie-targeted comedy turned into a modest cross-over success thanks to stars Melissa McCarthy and Bill Murray. Unfortunately, it’s tally still isn’t up to what producers probably wanted.

White Bird in a Blizzard

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Gregg Araki is a well known and respected director in certain circles, but he’s never had an Oscar-capable success. I sincerely doubt this film will make that happen.”
Oscar Results: The Academy didn’t even have to think about this one. They simply ignored it.
Box Office Prediction: $4 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. There’s no denying Shailene Woodley is becoming a second-tier Jennifer Lawrence, but this film’s odd aesthetic and premise aren’t going to help it cross-over to general audiences. On top of that, the specialty box office isn’t as forgiving of weirdness as it used to be.”
Box Office Results: $33.8 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Even for the specialty box office, this result is horrendous. Woodley’s star may have risen, but it hasn’t taken everything she’s doing with her yet.

October 31, 2015

Before I Go to Sleep

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The last time Nicole Kidman tried to be a box office star, it didn’t work out too well for her. This film seems only slightly more mainstream than her previous genre films (Stoker, The Invasion) and may be more in line with a film like Trespass. However, you have to go back almost a decade to find an unqualified hit.”
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Nicole Kidman isn’t a box office star and the film’s poor performance with critics kept it from becoming any measure of a success.

Nighctrawler

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Gilroy’s directorial debut might not be the stuff of Oscar legend, but some buzz has built around Jake Gyllenhaal, who was last nominated for Brokeback Mountain nearly a decade ago. With his impressive slate of specialty titles in recent years, he might have paid his dues enough to earn some respect from the Academy. It will be a tough competition for Best Actor this year, though, so he may just end up an also-ran.”
Oscar Results: Up until Nominations Morning, Nightcrawler seemed poised to go over big with Academy voters. Yet, when we discovered it was nominated only for Best Original Screenplay, do we realize just how over-conflated our belief in the film’s strengths were. It just wasn’t the Academy’s kind of film.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The hardboiled crime drama hasn’t had a lot of success in recent years, but film noir may be destined for a comeback and this seems like just the kind of film to make it. Dan Gilroy has been a screenwriter on some pretty major productions, so it’s entirely possible he could craft a hit. It’s definitely not a slam-dunk, though.”
Box Office Results: $32.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It made a brief foray into wide release and did modestly well, but no one would ever consider this a huge success. Still, for a specialty-aimed film, it did incredibly well.