November 7-9, 2014

Big Hero 6

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Here you have one of the key contenders for Best Animated Feature this year. Competing with The Lego Movie, Disney’s new film should easily secure a nomination. It might even make an appearance in Best Sound Editing.”
Oscar Results: After The Lego Movie was snubbed for an Oscar nomination, the race came down to two animation studio titans, Disney/Pixar and DreamWorks. Unfortunately, the better film did not win and Big Hero 6 continued to the trend of Disney/Pixar victories in this category.
Box Office Prediction: $220 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. This year’s animated films have been doing relatively poorly this year. The top grossing film so far made less than the top 3 films of 2013. That alone should give one pause when predicting a tally too high. However, Disney’s domination in the animation marketplace, paired with the lack of Pixar release should give this film a bigger chance. The trailers have been quite amusing, which could certainly help.”
Box Office Results: $222.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Topping How to Train Your Dragon 2 to become the year’s second-highest grossing animated film (behind The Lego Movie), Big Hero 6 proved that the super hero genre can still be a boon to Disney even if it’s not advertised specifically as a Marvel property.

Interstellar

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. Unless critics and audiences reject the film (an unlikely prospect), the film will be a big contender for the Oscars this year. I’m not sure it will make the Best Picture slate, but it has a good chance. It will clean up in the creative and tech categories with nominations in many of them and probably an Oscar or two along the way.”
Oscar Results: After the critics responded wit a big shrug, the box office didn’t respond as it has in the past and the Academy suddenly soured on the film. While some thought the film’s failure to earn a Best Picture nomination may have meant it wasn’t strong enough to win Best Visual Effects, it still managed to eke out a victory.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Christopher Nolan has had four $200-million-plus films. Two have topped $400 million. That should give us a good idea where his latest will land. However, when he tackles original subjects, his box office prowess is more muted. As such, I suspect this film will fail to top last year’s sci-fi blockbuster Gravity. Though, it might not be much of a difference between them.”
Box Office Results: $188.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Christopher Nolan may not have lost his luster, but when critics aren’t as supportive and audiences are slightly dismissive, the box office tends to respond accordingly. This marks his first time under $200 million since The Prestige and marks his lowest over-$100 million project to date.

Rosewater (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Jon Stewart’s directorial debut is on a subject that the Academy hasn’t found much interest in recently. The critics weren’t out-of-this-world following its festival debut, but stranger things have happened. For now, I wouldn’t put too much faith in the film performing well.”
Oscar Results: The critics didn’t support the film and it faded from memory almost as soon as it left the festival circuit.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. There’s been virtually no buzz for Stewart’s film in the last couple of months meaning it may arrive at the marketplace with no real concern for its success or longevity. As a result, box office tallies should be fairly low from a specialty perspective.”
Box Office Results: $3.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Jon Stewart’s directorial debut may not have done blockbuster numbers, but for a specialty film starring an actor who’s never been a box office star, this tally isn’t completely unexpected.

The Theory of Everything (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While it might not compete in Best Picture, star Eddie Redmayne is already being slated by many prognosticators as a certain nominee and one of the lead contenders for the Oscar itself. The film could also make inroads in several creative categories and might even get Felicity Jones a Supporting Actress nomination if it can make it into the Best Picture race.”
Oscar Results: Between when I wrote this and started covering the race, Felicity Jones became a Best Actress contender and then secured a nomination for it. The film also earned several nods with Redmayne taking home the Oscar as many were predicting.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Built on its strong festival buzz and Oscar potential, the story of college-age Stephen Hawking should do well with indie audiences, but may struggle with broader appreciation.”
Box Office Results: $35.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Although these numbers are nothing to be laughed at when compared to other smaller films released wide after some measure of acclaim, but considering the supposed word of mouth that was following the film, this should have been a higher total.

November 14-16, 2014

Beyond the Lights

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: A film about the music biz should have been a dead giveaway as a Best Original Song contender, but I wasn’t certain a film that was going to do so poorly at the box office would have merited mention. It did and received a nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Targeting black audiences may not be enough to make this one a hit. With little advertising being done and no big names behind or in front of the camera, this film may be a relative flop if it ends up releasing wide as currently slated.”
Box Office Results: $14.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The box office numbers weren’t great, but critics were universally pleased with the film. It might have a solid life on home video.

Dumb and Dumber To

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film was a blockbuster for comedy and was one of Jim Carrey’s bigger hits. The sequel nine years later was a bomb, making roughly one-sixth the original film’s tally. Fast-forward another eleven years and the third film hopes to reverse the trend and build on the film’s legacy with a hint of nostalgia. I doubt the film will be able to overcome the lengthy separation from the first film or the sure-to-be-scathing reviews.”
Box Office Results: $86.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Time hasn’t been kind, but it wasn’t as harsh as I expected it to be. While the film didn’t do numbers anywhere near the originals, the $86 million tally is pretty good for a film that’s been out of mainstream consciousness for a decade.

Foxcatcher (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. Bennett Miller has a perfect Oscar track record. He’s only directed two feature films and he has two Best Picture nominations, two screenwriting nominations, four acting nominations and three other Oscar nods including Best Director for Capote. If this film doesn’t place in the Oscar race I will be surprised.”
Oscar Results: As expected, the film took in a number of nominations, including a surprise Best Director citation, a hard-fought Best Actor nomination for Steve Carell, one for supporting actor Mark Ruffalo, another for writing and one for Makeup. That’s a pretty impressive haul for a film that was largely ignored by critics in the annual precursor race. This makes 6 acting nods and three screenwriting nominations in three films. It’s going to be a pretty safe bet to predict him and his films for the next several years.
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Director Bennett Miller doesn’t have a lengthy track record to mine for potential hints of box office performance. His first film, Capote did excellent specialty business and finished just over $28 million. His second film, Moneyball, did mediocre wide numbers just over $75 million. While this film has much bigger stars in tow, it’s hard to imagine the film doing anything close to Moneyball’s numbers since this film deals with Olympic wrestling and not an All-American sport like Baseball.”
Box Office Results: $12.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Not only did it not come close to Moneyball, it took in less than half of Capote‘s tally in spite of several Oscar nominations.

The Homesman (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Tommy Lee Jones apparently likes mining the western mythology. This marks his second feature directorial effort and his second that plays on western tropes (this one is an outright western). Critics loved his first outing (The Three Burials of Melqiuades Estrada), but it didn’t get nominated at the Oscars. The film could do well with Oscar voters, but I suspect it will suffer the same fate as his prior film.”
Oscar Results: Two strikes for Tommy Lee Jones. Not even Oscar magnet Hilary Swank could deliver attention for the film.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The western genre just hasn’t got the box office muscles it used to have. Unless the Academy takes a liking to this one, I doubt it breaks out of the specialty biz and ends up performing without much expectation or acclaim.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Nothing materialized for this film in terms of ecstatic praise or Oscar glory, so nearly everyone who saw it did so at the specialty box office and there doesn’t appear to have been much repeat business or word of mouth afterwards.

November 21-23, 2014

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. In two highly popular, critically acclaimed outings, the Academy has completely ignored The Hunger Games, not even in the Best Original Song category. I suspect the same fate will befall the penultimate film in the franchise.”
Oscar Results: As expected, the film was completely ignored, though the weaker notices from critics didn’t help.
Box Office Prediction: $430 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Many analysts thought Middle Chapter Syndrome might affect the second film of The Hunger Games quadrilogy and deliver a lower box office total. That film exceeded expectations and its predecessor by a mere $16 million. With that kind of trajectory, it’s possible the third film will top the second, but not by as much. I also suspect that it could under perform both prior efforts since this is the first half of a two-part finale and that didn’t Harry Potter much.”
Box Office Results: $337.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Doing terrific business, but not living up to its predecessors box office tallies, the first half of the final book didn’t exactly inspire audiences to race to the theater.

The Imitation Game (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Benedict Cumberbatch has emerged as a key figure in the British BBC invasion, having sold his name and his voice in countless territories. Now, he’s taking on one of the most prominent homosexual men in history. How far the film delves into that life may determine how well it does with the Oscars. It’s gotten some strong word of mouth out of Toronto where it won the People’s Choice Award. In Harvey Weinstein’s hand, that award has led to several Best Picture nominations, so don’t count this one out even if critics don’t award it on their end.”
Oscar Results: The film was never in the hunt for wins, but it was constantly referenced throughout precursor season leading it to a satisfying Oscar tally and garnering the film a single win in the less-than-competitive Adapted Screenplay category (where what was nominated wasn’t as good as what wasn’t).
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The subject matter alone might be enough to keep it from busting out at the box office. The only thing that will get people to the theaters is Oscar buzz and it may not develop that until later in the year. Ultimately, it could be a modest hit, but a break out hit isn’t likely.”
Box Office Results: $90.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Even if Harvey Weinstein has lost his gift with the Academy, he’s still easily able to manipulate viewers into coming out to the theater. It probably helped that Benedict Cumberbatch is wildly popular right now.

November 26-30, 2014

Horrible Bosses 2

Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Can lightning strike twice? The original film was a box office hit, but it released in a less dense period for films. This time it’s competing against a family film. While they don’t target the same demographics, it could cut into its possible overhead. That and comparisons to the original might sink the film if it can’t at least live up to the expectations of the fans.”
Box Office Results: $54.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Lightning doesn’t always strike twice and in spite of the original’s hilarious box office bonanza, the sequel just didn’t have the gumption to become a hit.

Penguins of Madagascar

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. As Puss in Boots proved for DreamWorks, spinoffs to popular Best Animated Feature winners should have no problem getting Oscar nominations in Best Animated Feature. The problem for Penguins is that none of the Madagascar films have earned Best Animated Feature nominations. While that doesn’t preclude a nomination for Penguins, I suspect it doesn’t have much of a shot even in a weaker field this year.”
Oscar Results: The competition was much more fierce than we expected, so it’s not a surprise that this spin-off to a less-than-popular-with-Oscar franchise didn’t get in.
Box Office Prediction: $185 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Based on the popular Madagascar films, the smart-but-dumb penguins, who many believe are the funniest elements of the main franchise’s films, are getting their own. It should be a big hit, especially with younger audiences and will provide an interesting testing ground for such material ahead of the impending stand-alone Minions film.”
Box Office Results: $83.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Perhaps the long-in-the-tooth Madagascar franchise just doesn’t have the ability to pull kids to the theater.