December 5, 2014

The Pyramid

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. If it sounds familiar, you’re probably thinking of trapped-in-the-catacombs-beneath-Paris horror film As Above / So Below. While this film features something hunting the archaeologists and that film featured psychological fate horrors affecting the afflicted, the premise is similar enough to suggest that it’s not going to work that well.”
Box Office Results: $2.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It’s a rare occurrence where the weekend’s lone wide release fails to surpass a film released at the specialty box office on the same weekend. However, that’s what happened to the latest ill-conceived found-footage horror fiasco known as The Pyramid.

Wild (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Witherspoon has gotten strong notices out of the festivals for her performance in Wild, but like the aforementioned Robert Redford, she may just not make the cut if there are stronger, more popular performances in play. The one benefit she has over Redford is that the Best Actress slate seems a bit thin this year so far.”
Oscar Results: A thin slate allowed Reese Witherspoon to handily secure an Oscar nomination. In addition, the film also picked up a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Laura Dern.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Reese Witherspoon isn’t a box office marvel and her film seems very much like the kind of film solo vehicle that only performs well when Oscar’s involved. Robert Redford’s All Is Lost only took in about $6.3 million at the box office. Witherspoon will be lucky to come close.”
Box Office Results: $37.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Far exceeding expectations, this is a prime example of how a independent film can perform superbly based on strong word of mouth and a star in a downplayed role.

December 12, 2014

Exodus: Gods and Kings

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. With a serious lack of options this year, a blockbuster biblical epic could be just what the Academy ordered. Scott is no stranger with the Academy and a spectacle of this magnitude is sure to compete, especially in the creative categories. It could also be the first Bible-based film nominated for Best Picture since 1956’s The Ten Commandments. (NOTE: Ben-Hur may have taken place at the same time as the biblical story of Jesus’ crucifixion, but it is not an adaptation of a Bible story)”
Oscar Results: The critics were hard on the film and its disastrous performance with them and ultimately at the box office led to its complete exclusion from the Oscar competition this year.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The Bible has become a new source of studio interest in recent years. After Passion of the Christ turned the Passion Play into a box office hit and Noah proved to be more popular than expected, the next film to try its hand at the box office is populist director Ridley Scott’s re-telling of the story of Moses and his delivery of the Jews from bondage in Egypt. Up until the 2000’s, the box office hadn’t had a lot of success with biblical fare, with large expanses of time between attempts. Scott has the potential to create a fairly strong box office result for his film, but it won’t come even close to the grand-daddy of box office triumphs, The Ten Commandments, which is the same story Scott and Company are intending to tell.”
Box Office Results: $65.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A film so slavishly devoted to the Bible should have been a better fit for Christian audiences, but it doesn’t seem they were nearly as enthused as they could have been and general audiences weren’t as excited as they should have been.

Inherent Vice (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Early buzz has been tempered. Critics seem to be split on the film, which may give the Academy reason to ignore it. So far, he’s been nominated once in Best Picture for There Will Be Blood and all but two of his films so far have gotten other nominations, including acting mentions. I suspect the same fate will befall this film.”
Oscar Results: Paul Thomas Anderson has been a frequent presence at the Oscars, but even his latest film couldn’t overcome tepid responses from critics and lackluster box office. Yet, it still managed two nominations for Adapted Screenplay and Costume Design.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Paul Thomas Anderson has made six films to date. This will make his seventh in a 17-year feature film career. Adjusted for inflation, none of his films have topped $50 million. His most recent feature, The Master topped out at just over $16 million. This film seems a little more accessible and may appeal more to those that made American Hustle a hit, but I wouldn’t expect it to come close to his high-water marks of There Will Be Blood and Boogie Nights. It should beat his more modest performers like Punch-Drunk Love and The Master, but the inflation-adjusted chart contest will be between this and 1999’s Magnolia which would have made $33 million in today’s dollars.”
Box Office Results: $8.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Anderon’s films are a tough sell to general audiences, especially when they are off-the-wall weird like this film looked from the trailers.

December 19, 2014

Annie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The song score would be ineligible and while the cast does sport an Oscar winner (Jamie Foxx), an Oscar nominee (Quvenzhané Wallis) and a near-Oscar nominee (Cameron Diaz), I don’t think the modern setting will help it appeal to Academy voters, especially when they have something much more visually intense with Into the Woods to look at. Still, if the film betrays its weak trailers and becomes an unqualified success with critics and audiences, a case could be made for several above-the-line mentions.”
Oscar Results: Critics didn’t like it and this film, which was initially thought to be a major Oscar contender ended up as entirely forgotten.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. To be a box office hit as a musical, you have to cross a lot of demographics and earn the trust of critics, or at least not activate their intense ire. These factors could keep Annie from performing anywhere near the studio’s original expectations when the greenlighted the project. In competition with two other films for pre-Christmas box office may shrink its audience, but the holidays might also give it a boost. I’m low-balling my estimate. A tally near $80 million wouldn’t be surprising. It could even reach Hairspray levels of enthusiasm. However, it won’t come anywhere near high water charters like Chicago, Les Misérables or Mamma Mia!”
Box Office Results: $85.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although critics were surly, audiences still made the film a decent hit.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the final Lord of the Rings film became an Oscar record-holder with 11-for-11 Oscar wins in 2003, the new trilogy has significantly underperformed that. Don’t expect it to suddenly appear in Best Picture, but the creative and tech categories may be open game again.”
Oscar Results: It’s amazing to see where Peter Jackson’s franchise went from one of the most honored franchises in Oscar history, to a franchise struggling for nominations. This was the only film in his six-film epic that didn’t score in Best Visual Effects. It managed a single, disappointing nomination for Best Sound Editing.
Box Office Prediction: $275 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. While it won’t be able to match the finale of the original Lord of the Rings trilogy, it should do better than the middle chapter of the Hobbit trilogy. Still, I can’t see the film besting trilogy-best opener’s $303 million total. Though, it could certainly surprise.”
Box Office Results: $255.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Perhaps Jackson should have left the franchise stand. Despite some decent reviews from critics, the final film in the franchise was also its weakest performer, failing to overcome the second film by a mere $3 million. Audiences just didn’t seem to like they wanted to wait three films to find out what could have been resolved in two.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film made more than $250 million at the box office. The second didn’t even come close, finishing out just north of $177 million. At the same rate of decay, a $90 million tally might not be unexpected. However, I think the hemorrhaging will lighten this time around and yield a slightly shallower drop.”
Box Office Results: $113.6 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Critics haven’t really been fans of this franchise, but in spite of that, it still managed to do incredibly well with audiences. While this is a far cry from its two previous outings, it may still be enough to justify a fourth film.

Mr. Turner (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. If Mike Leigh’s box office is consistent, his Oscar capabilities are more so. Perpetually ending up in the Best Original Screenplay race, even when the competition is heavy, it’s very likely this film will appear there again. Lead actor Timothy Spall is also in the hunt for his first nomination as the titular character. Whether he can muscle his way through the very stiff competition remains to be seen. I don’t expect the film to have many chances elsewhere, unless it picks up mentions in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.”
Oscar Results: While Mike Leigh has made several high profile appearances in Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, he completely missed the mark on this one. However, he was saved by an abundant haul from the creative categories securing four nominations for Best Original Score, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, though it did go home empty handed.
Box Office Prediction: $4 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Mike Leigh’s films are nothing, if not consistent. Apart from the disastrous performance of All or Nothing, all of his post-Secrets & Lies films have topped $2 million with all but one going past $3 million. For a time, the Oscar contenders performed better, but that’s not the case recently. Therefore, expect him to top his most recent outings thanks to box office inflation and the Oscar buzz that will likely surround Mr. Turner‘s star.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] Leigh’s performance at the box office is nothing if not consistent. This little title did no more and no less business than expected.

December 24, 2014

The Interview

Box Office Prediction: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. R-rated comedies have done really well in recent years, but the last such film that was a modest box office hit was Deuce Bigelow in 1999 and it made only $65 million. That doesn’t really mean anything when a film like This Is the End (co-directed by Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen who are helming this project) defied expectations in June of last year. Still, a spy comedy about buffoons in North Korea might not seem like a winning formula. After all, satirical socio-political comedy Team America: World Police only pulled in $32 million and is probably the best comparison to The Interview in spite of the Trey Parker/Matt Stone film being animated. However, the comparison is in terms of content, not necessarily performance, so this one may come down to just how heavy the competition from other films released in December is. Counterprogramming has failed more frequently than succeeded on the Christmas holiday when families crowd the multiplex.”
Box Office Results: $6.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Having your massive wide release scuttled by a fearful production company isn’t a wise move. While the film did eventually get its wide release after being pushed back for some time after hollow threats from North Korea, the film petered out at the box office with its nearly simultaneous release on VOD.

Into the Woods

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film should perform quite well in the production categories, specifically Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup. Cinematography and Editing are far more unlikely. It will also likely appear in Sound, but the above-the-line categories are a bit more precarious. Some see Meryl Streep a contender for her umpteenth nomination, but it depends on how much competition she has. The other players aren’t likely to figure and Adapted Screenplay is definitely out. It could show in Best Picture, but I doubt director Rob Marshall will get a nod for it.”
Oscar Results: What could have been an Oscar juggernaut, ended up a missed opportunity as the Stephen Sondheim musical adaptation took in only three Oscar nominations, the ever-present Meryl Streep in Best Supporting Actress and the expected tech nods for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There are two major musicals releasing in December. Into the Woods has the Disney brand and a perfect Christmas release window. I see this one doing quite well, possibly becoming the number three box office musical (unadjusted) of all time simply based on premise alone, though fans of the Stephen Sondheim original may have a few problems with this one.”
Box Office Results: $128.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Critics generally liked it and audiences did too, but it’s a far cry from the other revisionist fairy tales that have been killing it at the box office in recent years.

Unbroken

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. On paper, this film looks like a surefire Oscar contender. In practice, that may be a different story. Some are doubtful that actress Angelina Jolie could become the fifth woman ever nominated for Best Director, especially considering the Academy’s general dislike of recognizing prominent actresses-turned-directors (think Barbra Streisand for Prince of Tides, though her egomaniacal methodology turned off just as many voters as her film turned on). That said, this is the kind of subject that the Academy loves to look at (The Bridge on the River Kwai was a huge winner at the Oscars and it took place in a Japanese P.O.W. camp in World War II). However, Jolie is no David Lean. Jack O’Connell is no William Holden. Comparisons to that film shouldn’t be made unless critics hail Unbroken the same way they did Lean’s film. The critics will make or break this film. If it performs poorly, it may largely be an also ran. At this juncture, it’s more likely it gets several nominations in spite of the critics, but the critics will determine whether it can win.”
Oscar Results: With critics coming down largely on the negative side, Angelina Jolie’s directorial feature still managed three Oscar nominations, though none were in top-of-the-line categories where it was originally predicted: Best Cinematography, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. World historical events aren’t always the most keen box office performers, though this could be an exception. Based on the harrowing real life experience of Olympic runner Louis Zamperini in a Japanese P.O.W. camp, Angelina Jolie’s Oscar contending feature is sure to have some strong buzz surrounding it. Can that translate into stronger than normal box office? Only nine films about World War II have every surpassed $60 million (unadjusted) at the box office. Three of those were in the last five years and only one of those deal with the Japanese, if only tangentially (Pearl Harbor). This film will be largely untested. Can it meet the visceral objectives of something like Schindler’s List or will it be a largely-ignored flop like Flags of Our Fathers?”
Box Office Results: $115.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] While Oscar voters didn’t bite, audiences did making this one of the few hits of the Oscar season.

American Sniper (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While many of his recent films have earned Oscar nominations, they’ve been relatively minimal in terms of category attention. Million Dollar Baby was his last truly big Oscar vehicle (Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima did well, but not exceedingly so. This one seems to cover territory that has been done recently, covering a sniper instead of a bomb defusing specialist like Hurt Locker. As such, Eastwood will have to compete with the likes of Fury for the Academy’s shrinking War Film fanbase. If history is any indication, critics will sink or bolster the film’s chances. Middling reviews won’t help it, but stellar ones will certainly boost it into Mystic River / Million Dollar Baby territory.”
Oscar Results: Never bet against Clint Eastwood when he makes a crowd-pleasing war film. Six Oscar nominations were eventually showered on Eastwood’s film, including a Best Picture citation. Bradley Cooper was nominated for the third year in a row for Best Actor while the film was also mentioned for Best Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, the latter bringing the film its only Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Recent history shows that Clint Eastwood is all over the place in terms of box office capabilities. As director, six of his last eight films have performed in the $30-$50 million range. Only Gran Torino (where he was the star) and Letters from Iwo Jima (his only foreign language film) performed differently, Torino substantially higher and Iwo Jima quite a bit lower. The stars of four of those six films were Angelina Jolie, Matt Damon (twice) and Leonardo DiCaprio. As such, don’t expect him to perform much higher than those even with Bradley Cooper at the helm. Cooper may be enjoying a strong mid-career boost, but DiCaprio, Damon and Jolie were already at the peaks of their careers when they had these disappointments. Being an Oscar contender might help, but the Iraq-set The Hurt Locker still only managed $17 million in a base release and re-release.”
Box Office Results: $348.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I don’t think anyone could have predicted this tally. Even the most overzealous box office watcher would be shocked that a film about a conflicted sniper could become the year’s top grossing feature, topping The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 by $11 million. Eastwood still has box office bona fides, not that he wasn’t helped by a lot of people who saw the film as anti-Muslim and another set who saw it as anti-war.

Big Eyes (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. With Ed Wood the only real comparison, it’s hard to know what critics or Academy members will think of Big Eyes. I could see a nomination for Amy Adams, but Christoph Waltz now has two Oscars and the Best Actor race is really tight. The film could end up in some of the creative categories like Original Score, Production Design and Costume Design, but for it to break into the bigger categories like Best Picture, he must get critics to eat out of the palm of his hand, which is far from certain at this juncture. The one thing that could get in the film’s way is Harvey Weinstein’s decision to pull back from the multi-film awards slates he fielded last year and stick his guns to a single film with potential. That film is The Imitation Game, not Big Eyes.”
Oscar Results: Critics weren’t very impressed, which severely dented this films chances with Oscar. While Amy Adams was still discussed as a Best Actress possibility right up until the end, it’s a bit surprising that she didn’t show up at all, leaving the film nomination-less.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The last time Tim Burton took on a biopic, he was the toast of critics’ circles, but failed utterly to perform at the box office. Ed Wood was acclaimed, but made less than $6 million at the box office. It’s very likely this film does better, but I’d be surprised if it outperformed the likes of Frankenweenie, his 12-year career low point. The audiences that make his films big successes won’t find this type of film particularly appealing and even his mid-range successes had a more populist bent.”
Box Office Results: $14.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Audiences don’t particularly love Tim Burton anymore and his biopics are even less enticing. The film outperformed Ed Wood by quite a lot, though compared with inflation totals, it was a much smaller margin, making these two pictures his lowest box office grossers in history.

Selma (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. As for the Oscars, the Academy loves true stories, but critics will definitely need to get behind this film for it to gain momentum with Oscar voters. The subject is worthy, but if the presentation is not, no matter the level of significance can get the Academy to vote for it.”
Oscar Results: It’s utter absence from precursor season significantly hurt Ava DuVernay’s Civil Rights biopic, but ultimately it still managed to pick up Oscar nominations. It was a rare case of a Best Picture nominee securing only two Oscar nominations and is one of the even rarer examples of a film getting one for Best Picture and the second in a category far down-ballot: Best Original Song. That song, however, ended up one of the most popular of the awards season bringing down the house and raising butts out of seats at both the Grammys and the Oscars. “Glory” won the Oscar that night and earned singer/songwriters Common and John Legend three total standing ovations, a very rare achievement.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Historical documents haven’t been doing well lately as various recent-history efforts have largely been ignored by audiences. This film covers a pivotal moment in Civil Rights history, but that won’t be enough to draw people to the box office. The film has earned very little buzz and doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction, so I doubt it will do very well at the box office at all.”
Box Office Results: $52.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although it wasn’t the break-out hit many other period biopics have been in the past, this total is still quite impressive.