The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

September 5, 2014

The Green Inferno

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of student activists travel from New York City to the Amazon to save the rainforest. However, once they arrive in this vast green landscape, they soon discover that they are not alone – and that no good deed goes unpunished.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. Apart from his original Hostel, Eli Roth hasn’t been able to sell horror to mass audiences in the same way supernatural horror is being sold. Therefore, don’t expect much from this one, especially in the post-Labor Day Weekend slot.
Oscar Prospects: None.

September 12, 2014

Before I Go to Sleep

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman wakes up every day, remembering nothing as a result of a traumatic accident in her past. One day, new terrifying truths emerge that force her to question everyone around her.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. I don’t expect the film to do well. Nicole Kidman just hasn’t been on fire in years. The film also doesn’t sound nearly as exciting as it will need to in order to bring auds to the theater.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Dolphin Tale 2

Premise: From IMDb: “The team of people who saved Winter’s life reassemble in the wake of her surrogate mother’s passing in order to find her a companion so she can remain at the Clearwater Marine Hospital.”
Box Office Prospects: $65M
Expectations: Decent. Inspirational sagas tend to draw audiences looking for a respite from the world’s ills. After the original film ended up a surprise hit, interest may have increased enough to bring more people to the theaters.
Oscar Prospects: None.

No Good Deed

Premise: From IMDb: “Terri (Taraji P. Henson) is a devoted wife and mother of two, living an ideal suburban life in Atlanta when Colin (Idris Elba), a charming but dangerous escaped convict, shows up at her door claiming car trouble. Terri offers her phone to help him but soon learns that no good deed goes unpunished as she finds herself fighting for survival when he invades her home and terrorizes her family.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Many of the most popular films with predominantly black casts have been romantic comedies. Dramas tend not to do well and action films are a rare occurrence. This fact might help No Good Deed pull in more money than expected.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Search Party

Premise: From IMDb: “A pair of friends embark on a mission to reunite their pal with the woman he was going to marry.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Poor. With a cast unfamiliar to most audiences and a premise that just doesn’t sound that original, this film is likely to perform poorly.
Oscar Prospects: None.

September 19, 2014

The Maze Runner

Premise: From IMDb: “Thomas is deposited in a community of boys after his memory is erased, soon learning they’re all trapped in a maze that will require him to join forces with fellow “runners” for a shot at escape.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. Call it another attempt to tap into the tween market that might not go over as well as the producers hope. Still, the concept is unique enough and the stars young and good looking enough that it might be popular.
Oscar Prospects: None.

This Is Where I Leave You

Premise: From IMDb: “When their father passes away, four grown siblings are forced to return to their childhood home and live under the same roof together for a week, along with their over-sharing mother and an assortment of spouses, exes and might-have-beens.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There are some great actors involved, but this type of film hasn’t been lighting up the box office lately, which could give it some trouble trying to break-out from the September pack.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Tusk

Premise: From IMDb: “A man is captured by a maniac and tortured, physically and mentally, into becoming a walrus.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. Kevin Smith just isn’t as popular as he seems to think he is. While he has built a hefty set of fans with his slacker comedies and dramas, his traditional material just doesn’t do well and his past experience with horror was a flop. I wouldn’t expect this surreal comedy horror to be that big.
Oscar Prospects: None.

A Walk Among the Tombstones

Premise: From IMDb: “Private investigator Matthew Scudder is hired by a drug kingpin to find out who kidnapped and murdered his wife.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Liam Neeson is either on fire or lukewarm. Several of his films have been quite popular, but there are more than a few that have done less-than-impressive business at the box office. This one might fall more into the Taken/Non-Stop vein rather than the Grey area.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Zero Theorem (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A computer hacker whose goal is to discover the reason for human existence continually finds his work interrupted thanks to the Management; namely, they send a teenager and lusty love interest to distract him.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Poor. Terry Gilliam is one of these curiosities that makes films that seem to somewhat please critics and appeal to a large niche audience, but who can’t get people to the theater to save his life. The trailers suggest the film is very much in his narrative wheelhouse, but that it’s not a film that will draw big numbers to the theaters.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film could follow past Terry Gilliam films into the Oscar races, especially in creative categories, but it’s been a long time since he’s been viable.

September 26, 2014

The BoxTrolls

Premise: From IMDb: “A young orphaned boy raised by underground cave-dwelling trash collectors tries to save his friends from an evil exterminator. Based on the children’s novel ‘Here Be Monsters’ by Alan Snow.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Good. While it may not have the cachet of the big studio computer animated adventures, Laika has quietly amassed an impressive record of films that do decent mid-sized business at the box office. This might be the film to finally push out of that arena with its very kid-friendly characters.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Two films to date, Laika has managed a 100% nomination ratio with the Academy. This film, with all of its excitement and adventure and an underpopulated year of animated films, could very easily snag a nod.

The Equalizer

Premise: From IMDb: “A former black ops commando who faked his death for a quiet life in Boston comes out of his retirement to rescue a young girl and finds himself face to face with Russian gangsters.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Good. Denzel Washington is one of the safest bets at the box office out there. He has had very few films that have been outright flops and many of them have fallen into the “successful” column even if they weren’t runaway successes. This one should be another strong performer for him.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “One couple’s story as they try to reclaim the life and love they once knew and pick up the pieces of a past that may be too far gone.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The film was originally created as two, one from a male perspective and one from a female perspective, but they will be combined for U.S. distribution. After the Nymphomaniac situation, I’m not surprised. The story’s interesting, but the concept may just be too niche to spread beyond the specialty box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.