The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

November 7-9, 2014

Big Hero 6

Premise: From IMDb: “The special bond that develops between plus-sized inflatable robot Baymax, and prodigy Hiro Hamada, who team up with a group of friends to form a band of high-tech heroes.”
Box Office Prospects: $220 M
Expectations: Strong. This year’s animated films have been doing relatively poorly this year. The top grossing film so far made less than the top 3 films of 2013. That alone should give one pause when predicting a tally too high. However, Disney’s domination in the animation marketplace, paired with the lack of Pixar release should give this film a bigger chance. The trailers have been quite amusing, which could certainly help.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. Here you have one of the key contenders for Best Animated Feature this year. Competing with The Lego Movie, Disney’s new film should easily secure a nomination. It might even make an appearance in Best Sound Editing.

Interstellar

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of explorers make use of a newly discovered wormhole to surpass the limitations on human space travel and conquer the vast distances involved in an interstellar voyage.”
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Strong. Christopher Nolan has had four $200-million-plus films. Two have topped $400 million. That should give us a good idea where his latest will land. However, when he tackles original subjects, his box office prowess is more muted. As such, I suspect this film will fail to top last year’s sci-fi blockbuster Gravity. Though, it might not be much of a difference between them.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. Unless critics and audiences reject the film (an unlikely prospect), the film will be a big contender for the Oscars this year. I’m not sure it will make the Best Picture slate, but it has a good chance. It will clean up in the creative and tech categories with nominations in many of them and probably an Oscar or two along the way.

Rosewater (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A journalist is detained in Iran for more than 100 days and brutally interrogated in prison.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Poor. There’s been virtually no buzz for Stewart’s film in the last couple of months meaning it may arrive at the marketplace with no real concern for its success or longevity. As a result, box office tallies should be fairly low from a specialty perspective.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Jon Stewart’s directorial debut is on a subject that the Academy hasn’t found much interest in recently. The critics weren’t out-of-this-world following its festival debut, but stranger things have happened. For now, I wouldn’t put too much faith in the film performing well.

The Theory of Everything (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the relationship between the famous physicist Stephen Hawking and his wife.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Built on its strong festival buzz and Oscar potential, the story of college-age Stephen Hawking should do well with indie audiences, but may struggle with broader appreciation.
Oscar Prospects: Good. While it might not compete in Best Picture, star Eddie Redmayne is already being slated by many prognosticators as a certain nominee and one of the lead contenders for the Oscar itself. The film could also make inroads in several creative categories and might even get Felicity Jones a Supporting Actress nomination if it can make it into the Best Picture race.

November 14-16, 2014

Beyond the Lights

Premise: From IMDb: “A talented young musician on the brink of super stardom struggles with the pressure of her new-found success.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. Targeting black audiences may not be enough to make this one a hit. With little advertising being done and no big names behind or in front of the camera, this film may be a relative flop if it ends up releasing wide as currently slated.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Dumb and Dumber To

Premise: From IMDb: “20 years after the dimwits set out on their first adventure, they head out in search of one of their long lost children in the hope of gaining a new kidney.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The original film was a blockbuster for comedy and was one of Jim Carrey’s bigger hits. The sequel nine years later was a bomb, making roughly one-sixth the original film’s tally. Fast-forward another eleven years and the third film hopes to reverse the trend and build on the film’s legacy with a hint of nostalgia. I doubt the film will be able to overcome the lengthy separation from the first film or the sure-to-be-scathing reviews.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Foxcatcher (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Based on the true story of Mark Schultz, an Olympic wrestler whose relationship with sponsor John du Pont and brother Dave Schultz would lead to unlikely circumstances.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Director Bennett Miller doesn’t have a lengthy track record to mine for potential hints of box office performance. His first film, Capote did excellent specialty business and finished just over $28 million. His second film, Moneyball, did mediocre wide numbers just over $75 million. While this film has much bigger stars in tow, it’s hard to imagine the film doing anything close to Moneyball‘s numbers since this film deals with Olympic wrestling and not an All-American sport like Baseball.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. Bennett Miller has a perfect Oscar track record. He’s only directed two feature films and he has two Best Picture nominations, two screenwriting nominations, four acting nominations and three other Oscar nods including Best Director for Capote. If this film doesn’t place in the Oscar race I will be surprised.

The Homesman (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A claim jumper and a pioneer woman team up to escort three insane women from Nebraska to Iowa.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. The western genre just hasn’t got the box office muscles it used to have. Unless the Academy takes a liking to this one, I doubt it breaks out of the specialty biz and ends up performing without much expectation or acclaim.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Tommy Lee Jones apparently likes mining the western mythology. This marks his second feature directorial effort and his second that plays on western tropes (this one is an outright western). Critics loved his first outing (The Three Burials of Melqiuades Estrada), but it didn’t get nominated at the Oscars. The film cold do well with Oscar voters, but I suspect it will suffer the same fate as his prior film.

November 21-23, 2014

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1

Premise: From IMDb: “Katniss Everdeen is in District 13 after she shatters the games forever. Under the leadership of President Coin and the advice of her trusted friends, Katniss spreads her wings as she fights to save Peeta and a nation moved by her courage.”
Box Office Prospects: $430 M
Expectations: Strong. Many analysts thought Middle Chapter Syndrome might affect the second film of The Hunger Games quadrilogy and deliver a lower box office total. That film exceeded expectations and its predecessor by a mere $16 million. With that kind of trajectory, it’s possible the third film will top the second, but not by as much. I also suspect that it could under perform both prior efforts since this is the first half of a two-part finale and that didn’t Harry Potter much.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. In two highly popular, critically acclaimed outings, the Academy has completely ignored The Hunger Games, not even in the Best Original Song category. I suspect the same fate will befall the penultimate film in the franchise.

The Imitation Game (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “English mathematician and logician, Alan Turing, helps crack the Enigma code during World War II.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The subject matter alone might be enough to keep it from busting out at the box office. The only thing that will get people to the theaters is Oscar buzz and it may not develop that until later in the year. Ultimately, it could be a modest hit, but a break out hit isn’t likely.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Benedict Cumberbatch has emerged as a key figure in the British BBC invasion, having sold his name and his voice in countless territories. Now, he’s taking on one of the most prominent homosexual men in history. How far the film delves into that life may determine how well it does with the Oscars. It’s gotten some strong word of mouth out of Toronto where it won the People’s Choice Award. In Harvey Weinstein’s hand, that award has led to several Best Picture nominations, so don’t count this one out even if critics don’t award it on their end.

November 26-30, 2014

Horrible Bosses 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Dale, Kurt and Nick decide to start their own business but things don’t go as planned because of a slick investor, prompting the trio to pull off a harebrained and misguided kidnapping scheme.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Can lightning strike twice? The original film was a box office hit, but it released in a less dense period for films. This time it’s competing against a family film. While they don’t target the same demographics, it could cut into its possible overhead. That and comparisons to the original might sink the film if it can’t at least live up to the expectations of the fans.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Penguins of Madagascar

Premise: From IMDb: “Super spy teams aren’t born…they’re hatched. Discover the secrets of the greatest and most hilarious covert birds in the global espionage biz: Skipper, Kowalski, Rico and Private. These elitists of the elite are joining forces with a chic undercover organization, The North Wind. Led by handsome and husky Agent Classified (we could tell you his name, but then…you know). Together, they must stop the villainous Dr. Octavius Brine, from destroying the world as we know it.”
Box Office Prospects: $185 M
Expectations: Strong. Based on the popular Madagascar films, the smart-but-dumb penguins, who many believe are the funniest elements of the main franchise’s films, are getting their own. It should be a big hit, especially with younger audiences and will provide an interesting testing ground for such material ahead of the impending stand-alone Minions film.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. As Puss in Boots proved for DreamWorks, spinoffs to popular Best Animated Feature winners should have no problem getting Oscar nominations in Best Animated Feature. The problem for Penguins is that none of the Madagascar films have earned Best Animated Feature nominations. While that doesn’t preclude a nomination for Penguins, I suspect it doesn’t have much of a shot even in a weaker field this year.