The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

December 5, 2014

The Pyramid

Premise: From IMDb: “A team of U.S. archaeologists unearths an ancient pyramid buried deep beneath the Egyptian desert. As they search the pyramid’s depths, they become hopelessly lost in its dark and endless catacombs. Searching for a way out, they become desperate to seek daylight again. They come to realize they aren’t just trapped, they are being hunted.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. If it sounds familiar, you’re probably thinking of trapped-in-the-catacombs-beneath-Paris horror film As Above / So Below. While this film features something hunting the archaeologists and that film featured psychological fate horrors affecting the afflicted, the premise is similar enough to suggest that it’s not going to work that well.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Wild (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A chronicle of one woman’s 1,100-mile solo hike undertaken as a way to recover from a recent catastrophe.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. Reese Witherspoon isn’t a box office marvel and her film seems very much like the kind of film solo vehicle that only performs well when Oscar’s involved. Robert Redford’s All Is Lost only took in about $6.3 million at the box office. Witherspooon will be lucky to come close.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Witherspoon has gotten strong notices out of the festivals for her performance in Wild, but like the aforementioned Robert Redford, she may just not make the cut if there are stronger, more popular performances in play. The one benefit she has over Redford is that the Best Actress slate seems a bit thin this year so far.

December 12, 2014

Exodus: Gods and Kings

Premise: From IMDb: “The defiant leader Moses rises up against the Egyptian Pharaoh Ramses, setting 600,000 slaves on a monumental journey of escape from Egypt and its terrifying cycle of deadly plagues.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. The Bible has become a new source of studio interest in recent years. After Passion of the Christ turned the Passion Play into a box office hit and Noah proved to be more popular than expected, the next film to try its hand at the box office is populist director Ridley Scott’s re-telling of the story of Moses and his delivery of the Jews from bondage in Egypt. Up until the 2000’s, the box office hadn’t had a lot of success with biblical fare, with large expanses of time between attempts. Scott has the potential to create a fairly strong box office result for his film, but it won’t come even close to the grand-daddy of box office triumphs, The Ten Commandments, which is the same story Scott and Company are intending to tell.
Oscar Prospects: Good. With a serious lack of options this year, a blockbuster biblical epic could be just what the Academy ordered. Scott is no stranger with the Academy and a spectacle of this magnitude is sure to compete, especially in the creative categories. It could also be the first Bible-based film nominated for Best Picture since 1956’s The Ten Commandments. (NOTE: Ben-Hur may have taken place at the same time as the biblical story of Jesus’ crucifixion, but it is not an adaptation of a Bible story)

Inherent Vice (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In 1970, drug-fueled Los Angeles detective Larry “Doc” Sportello investigates the disappearance of a former girlfriend.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Paul Thomas Anderson has made six films to date. This will make his seventh in a 17-year feature film career. Adjusted for inflation, none of his films have topped $50 million. His most recent feature, The Master topped out at just over $16 million. This film seems a little more accessible and may appeal more to those that made American Hustle a hit, but I wouldn’t expect it to come close to his high-water marks of There Will Be Blood and Boogie Nights. It should beat his more modest performers like Punch-Drunk Love and The Master, but the inflation-adjusted chart contest will be between this and 1999’s Magnolia which would have made $33 million in today’s dollars.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Early buzz has been tempered. Critics seem to be split on the film, which may give the Academy reason to ignore it. So far, he’s been nominated once in Best Picture for There Will Be Blood and all but two of his films so far have gotten other nominations, including acting mentions. I suspect the same fate will befall this film.

December 19, 2014

Annie

Premise: From IMDb: “Annie is a young, happy foster kid who’s also tough enough to make her way on the streets of New York in 2014. Originally left by her parents as a baby with the promise that they’d be back for her someday, it’s been a hard knock life ever since with her mean foster mom Miss Hannigan. But everything’s about to change when the hard-nosed tycoon and New York mayoral candidate Will Stacks makes a thinly-veiled campaign move and takes her in.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. To be a box office hit as a musical, you have to cross a lot of demographics and earn the trust of critics, or at least not activate their intense ire. These factors could keep Annie from performing anywhere near the studio’s original expectations when the greenlighted the project. In competition with two other films for pre-Christmas box office may shrink its audience, but the holidays might also give it a boost. I’m low-balling my estimate. A tally near $80 million wouldn’t be surprising. It could even reach Hairspray levels of enthusiasm. However, it won’t come anywhere near high water charters like Chicago, Les Misérables or Mamma Mia!
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The song score would be ineligible and while the cast does sport an Oscar winner (Jamie Foxx), an Oscar nominee (Quvenzhané Wallis) and a near-Oscar nominee (Cameron Diaz), I don’t think the modern setting will help it appeal to Academy voters, especially when they have something much more visually intense with Into the Woods to look at. Still, if the film betrays its weak trailers and becomes an unqualified success with critics and audiences, a case could be made for several above-the-line mentions.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Premise: From IMDb: “Bilbo and Company are forced to be embraced in a war against an armed flock of combatants and the terrifying Smaug from acquiring a kingdom of treasure and incinerating all of Middle-Earth.”
Box Office Prospects: $275 M
Expectations: Strong. While it won’t be able to match the finale of the original Lord of the Rings trilogy, it should do better than the middle chapter of the Hobbit trilogy. Still, I can’t see the film besting trilogy-best opener’s $303 million total. Though, it could certainly surprise.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. While the final Lord of the Rings film became an Oscar record-holder with 11-for-11 Oscar wins in 2003, the new trilogy has significantly underperformed that. Don’t expect it to suddenly appear in Best Picture, but the creative and tech categories may be open game again.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Premise: From IMDb: “Larry spans the globe, while embarking on an epic quest to save the magic before it is gone forever.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The first film made more than $250 million at the box office. The second didn’t even come close, finishing out just north of $177 million. At the same rate of decay, a $90 million tally might not be unexpected. However, I think the hemorrhaging will lighten this time around and yield a slightly shallower drop.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Mr. Turner (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An exploration of the last quarter century of the great, if eccentric, British painter J.M.W. Turner’s life.”
Box Office Prospects: $4 M
Expectations: Good. Mike Leigh’s films are nothing, if not consistent. Apart from the disastrous performance of All or Nothing, all of his post-Secrets & Lies films have topped $2 million with all but one going past $3 million. For a time, the Oscar contenders performed better, but that’s not the case recently. Therefore, expect him to top his most recent outings thanks to box office inflation and the Oscar buzz that will likely surround Mr. Turner‘s star.
Oscar Prospects: Good. If Mike Leigh’s box office is consistent, his Oscar capabilities are more so. Perpetually ending up in the Best Original Screenplay race, even when the competition is heavy, it’s very likely this film will appear there again. Lead actor Timothy Spall is also in the hunt for his first nomination as the titular character. Whether he can muscle his way through the very stiff competition remains to be seen. I don’t expect the film to have many chances elsewhere, unless it picks up mentions in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

December 24, 2014

The Interview

Premise: From IMDb: “Dave Skylark and his producer Aaron Rapoport run the popular celebrity tabloid TV show “Skylark Tonight.” When they discover that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is a fan of the show, they land an interview with him in an attempt to legitimize themselves as journalists. As Dave and Aaron prepare to travel to Pyongyang, their plans change when the CIA recruits them, perhaps the two least-qualified men imaginable, to assassinate Kim Jong-un.”
Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Expectations: Uncertain. R-rated comedies have done really well in recent years, but the last such film that was a modest box office hit was Deuce Bigelow in 1999 and it made only $65 million. That doesn’t really mean anything when a film like This Is the End (co-directed by Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen who are helming this project) defied expectations in June of last year. Still, a spy comedy about buffoons in North Korea might not seem like a winning formula. After all, satirical socio-political comedy Team America: World Police only pulled in $32 million and is probably the best comparison to The Interview in spite of the Trey Parker/Matt Stone film being animated. However, the comparison is in terms of content, not necessarily performance, so this one may come down to just how heavy the competition from other films released in December is. Counterprogramming has failed more frequently than succeeded on the Christmas holiday when families crowd the multiplex.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Into the Woods

Premise: From IMDb: “A witch conspires to teach important lessons to various characters of popular children’s stories including Little Red Riding Hood, Cinderella, Jack and the Beanstalk and Rapunzel.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. There are two major musicals releasing in December. Into the Woods has the Disney brand and a perfect Christmas release window. I see this one doing quite well, possibly becoming the number three box office musical (unadjusted) of all time simply based on premise alone, though fans of the Stephen Sondheim original may have a few problems with this one.
Oscar Prospects: Good. The film should perform quite well in the production categories, specifically Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup. Cinematography and Editing are far more unlikely. It will also likely appear in Sound, but the above-the-line categories are a bit more precarious. Some see Meryl Streep a contender for her umpteenth nomination, but it depends on how much competition she has. The other players aren’t likely to figure and Adapted Screenplay is definitely out. It could show in Best Picture, but I doubt director Rob Marshall will get a nod for it.

Unbroken

Premise: From IMDb: “A chronicle of the life of Louis Zamperini, an Olympic runner who was taken prisoner by Japanese forces during World War II.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. World historical events aren’t always the most keen box office performers, though this could be an exception. Based on the harrowing real life experience of Olympic runner Louis Zamperini in a Japanese P.O.W. camp, Angelina Jolie’s Oscar contending feature is sure to have some strong buzz surrounding it. Can that translate into stronger than normal box office? Only nine films about World War II have every surpassed $60 million (unadjusted) at the box office. Three of those were in the last five years and only one of those deal with the Japanese, if only tangentially (Pearl Harbor). This film will be largely untested. Can it meet the visceral objectives of something like Schindler’s List or will it be a largely-ignored flop like Flags of Our Fathers?
Oscar Prospects: Solid. On paper, this film looks like a surefire Oscar contender. In practice, that may be a different story. Some are doubtful that actress Angelina Jolie could become the fifth woman ever nominated for Best Director, especially considering the Academy’s general dislike of recognizing prominent actresses-turned-directors (think Barbra Streisand for Prince of Tides, though her egomaniacal methodology turned off just as many voters as her film turned on). That said, this is the kind of subject that the Academy loves to look at (The Bridge on the River Kwai was a huge winner at the Oscars and it took place in a Japanese P.O.W. camp in World War II). However, Jolie is no David Lean. Jack O’Connell is no William Holden. Comparisons to that film shouldn’t be made unless critics hail Unbroken the same way they did Lean’s film. The critics will make or break this film. If it performs poorly, it may largely be an also ran. At this juncture, it’s more likely it gets several nominations in spite of the critics, but the critics will determine whether it can win.

American Sniper (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The most lethal sniper in US Marine history recounts his flawless military career, with over 150 confirmed kills.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Recent history shows that Clint Eastwood is all over the place in terms of box office capabilities. As director, six of his last eight films have performed in the $30-$50 million range. Only Gran Torino (where he was the star) and Letters from Iwo Jima (his only foreign language film) performed differently, Torino substantially higher and Iwo Jima quite a bit lower. The stars of four of those six films were Angelina Jolie, Matt Damon (twice) and Leonardo DiCaprio. As such, don’t expect him to perform much higher than those even with Bradley Cooper at the helm. Cooper may be enjoying a strong mid-career boost, but DiCaprio, Damon and Jolie were already at the peaks of their careers when they had these disappointments. Being an Oscar contender might help, but the Iraq-set The Hurt Locker still only managed $17 million in a base release and re-release.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. While many of his recent films have earned Oscar nominations, they’ve been relatively minimal in terms of category attention. Million Dollar Baby was his last truly big Oscar vehicle (Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima did well, but not exceedingly so. This one seems to cover territory that has been done recently, covering a sniper instead of a bomb defusing specialist like Hurt Locker. As such, Eastwood will have to compete with the likes of Fury for the Academy’s shrinking War Film fanbase. If history is any indication, critics will sink or bolster the film’s chances. Middling reviews won’t help it, but stellar ones will certainly boost it into Mystic River / Million Dollar Baby territory.

Big Eyes (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A drama centered on the awakening of the painter Margaret Keane, her phenomenal success in the 1950s, and the subsequent legal difficulties she had with her husband, who claimed credit for her works in the 1960s.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The last time Tim Burton took on a biopic, he was the toast of critics’ circles, but failed utterly to perform at the box office. Ed Wood was acclaimed, but made less than $6 million at the box office. It’s very likely this film does better, but I’d be surprised if it outperformed the likes of Frankenweenie, his 12-year career low point. The audiences that make his films big successes won’t find this type of film particularly appealing and even his mid-range successes had a more populist bent.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. With Ed Wood the only real comparison, it’s hard to know what critics or Academy members will think of Big Eyes. I could see a nomination for Amy Adams, but Christoph Waltz now has two Oscars and the Best Actor race is really tight. The film could end up in some of the creative categories like Original Score, Production Design and Costume Design, but for it to break into the bigger categories like Best Picture, he must get critics to eat out of the palm of his hand, which is far from certain at this juncture. The one thing that could get in the film’s way is Harvey Weinstein’s decision to pull back from the multi-film awards slates he fielded last year and stick his guns to a single film with potential. That film is The Imitation Game, not Big Eyes.

Selma (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Martin Luther King, Lyndon Baines Johnson and the civil rights marches that changed America.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Weak. Historical documents haven’t been doing well lately as various recent-history efforts have largely been ignored by audiences. This film covers a pivotal moment in Civil Rights history, but that won’t be enough to draw people to the box office. The film has earned very little buzz and doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction, so I doubt it will do very well at the box office at all.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. As for the Oscars, the Academy loves true stories, but critics will definitely need to get behind this film for it to gain momentum with Oscar voters. The subject is worthy, but if the presentation is not, no matter the level of significance can get the Academy to vote for it.