June 7, 2013

The Internship

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Two actors who haven’t collectively or independently sold a movie to audiences with much success band together for a movie that almost feels 5 years out of date. And facing stiff competition from Memorial Day holdovers After Earth and Now You See Me, I can see the film easily getting lost in the shuffle.”
Box Office Results: $44.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Studios continue to ignore those who’ve pointed at the frequent flops of lame comedies, continuing to produce films that end up performing poorly at the box office as a result. The end will never come as long as one film is a success, a dozen more will crop up trying to replicate.

The Purge

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The novelty of the concept should help bolster its first-week opening, possibly even topping fellow June 7 releasing The Internship. And with no viable horror options for the last several weeks, there me be ample opportunity.”
Box Office Results: $64.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing as well as most horror films in this era, The Purge finished well considering its budget even if compared to other massively popular films that make 3 or 4 times as much.

June 14, 2013

Man of Steel

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “As with most Summer blockbusters, the film is likely only going to compete in the sound and visual effects categories with others depending on how much the film appeals to critics and Academy members.”
Oscar Results: The film still stands a strong chance in the tech categories, but will be absent from everywhere else.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The first in what Warner Bros. hopes will be the beginnings of the next big Marvel-like superhero team-up The Justice League, early reviews have been positive, but after the abysmal Superman Returns, that won’t be difficult. Whether Zack Snyder can direct a good movie or not will finally be tested when not directing within his design niche. Of course, the maligned Superman Returns still made over $200 million at the box office, so a strong performance is expected.”
Box Office Results: $291.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing above expectations, critics and audiences agreed that this was a significant step up from the prior outing and gave it a near-$300 millio gross, a tally likely to increase when the next film, a Batman/Superman team-up, hits theaters.

This Is the End

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Whether the concept works or not, there’s little doubt that the James Franco comedy will get lost in the Summer season and fail to live up to anyone’s expectations.”
Box Office Results: $101.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] With so many other strong contenders getting lost themselves, this apocalyptic comedy did spectacular business, finishing above the magic $100 million mark.

The Bling Ring

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “After Lost in Translation, everyone thought Coppola might follow in her father’s footsteps. It appears she has done so, but she’s following her father’s late-career trajectory, not his 1970’s work.”
Oscar Results: Critics were ambivalent and cross-over appeal didn’t happen outside the specialty box office, so the Oscars are likely out at this point.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. You can put recognizable faces in an indie film, but you cannot make it a success. With Sofia Coppola struggling to remain relevant after a string of flops, the film will have to be a lot better than its disappointing trailer to outperform her last film.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While Coppola hasn’t had a hit since Lost in Translation, this tally isn’t awful all things considered.

June 21, 2013

Monsters University

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A Best Animated Feature nomination is guaranteed. An Oscar depends on what else it competes against, which might not be much. And if Brave can triumph over the superior Wreck-It Ralph, University can easily do the same. Nominations in Original Score, Original Song and the sound categories are also possible and a few of them likely.”
Oscar Results: There isn’t much competition for the Best Animated Feature Oscar this year, so even this sequel could have a leg-up in the competition.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Expect big things in the first sequel from Pixar since the phenomenal box office performance of Toy Story 3. If it’s half as good as that film and better than Monsters, Inc., it will do quite well.”
Box Office Results: $267.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Not everyone agreed that this prequel was better, but audience responded, just not as strongly as they could have for a known quantity. Disney/Pixar’s track record lately hasn’t been great, though.

World War Z

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It’s very unlikely to be much of an Oscar contender even in the effects-friendly sound and visual effects categories. Best Visual Effects is probably its best shot and with all that is coming out this year, I doubt it will get a nomination.”
Oscar Results: The surprisingly strong performance may make the film a better contender this year, but there are far too many other more obvious effects films that could triumph at the Oscars.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The trailers seem to have sparked equal amounts of praise and derision and the “fast zombie” film has never really caught on with wide audiences. However, with the Earth’s destruction and Brad Pitt in the lead, it could be a hit. I’m going to suggest that with all of the other blockbusters in release or releasing, it will end up doing good, but not sensational business.”
Box Office Results: $202.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Zombie films aren’t as popular at the box office as one would think, especially when you see a tally like this suggesting appreciation of the sub-genre is there. This is an outlier for sure, but a pretty impressive one.

June 28, 2013

The Heat

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Above Average. I’d like to say this will be a runaway hit, but Melissa McCarthy’s last film wasn’t terribly great and it’s been a long time since Sandra Bullock was in a comedy, but from the director of Bridesmaids, pairing these two comedy powerhouses could result in some smashing business.”
Box Office Results: $159.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Count on McCarthy and Bullock for big box office dollars and for a non-event comedy, this is a pretty strong outing.

White House Down

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Although 2012 boasted some of the year’s best visual effects, the film was ultimately left off the Best Visual Effects list. That doesn’t mean White House Down will miss that or the sound categories, but with the increased competition, the film would have to be touted as the year’s best, not “one of the.””
Oscar Results: Roland Emmerich’s visual effects star is fading. Not only did the film fail to live up to expectations at the box office, but that failure is likely to result in less attention being paid to the film and its Oscar chances become virtually non-existent. The Academy doesn’t mind bad movies in the tech categories, but it doesn’t like flops to be there.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Apart from an uncharacteristicly bad performance for his special effects spectacular 10,000 BC director Roland Emmerich consistently generates $100 million-plus features, most of which manage to zoom past $150 million easily. With the trailer playing up the explosive elements and featuring newly minted box office star Channing Tatum and popular actor Jamie Foxx as the POTUS, I see little reason not to believe the film will do very well.”
Box Office Results: $73.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] In general numbers, these aren’t bad. For an event picture, from a well known director of massive action spectacles, these figures are very disappointing. Reversing a trend from past years, the second film isn’t always better received and suffers in comparison to previous similar projects.

Byzantium

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Although there has been light chatter about the film since it was announced, nothing seems to stand out as Oscar caliber about the film from the little there is to read. Strong word from critics could help.”
Oscar Results: Ignored by the critics. A bomb at the box office. Oscar couldn’t care less.
Box Office Prediction: $6 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The premise doesn’t seem like the type that would do boffo box office business, but strong word of mouth from critics and audiences could help the film do better than expected.”
Box Office Results: $85.3 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] How far prominent directors fall is indicated by how they perform at the box office, This didn’t even get a tenth of a million dollars. That’s pretty bad even for the specialty box office.

I’m So Excited

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film hasn’t been getting rave notices so far and while Almodovar is beloved in his home country, this film just doesn’t sound like Oscar material.”
Oscar Results: Critics seemed to hate it and audiences didn’t care much for it either. Maybe next time, Pedro.
Box Office Prediction: $7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Pedro Almodovar has a strong following, but not one that has tremendous cross-over appeal. Still, for a foreign language film director, Almodovar’s films consistently perform on the high end of indie expectations.”
Box Office Results: $1.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Almodovar attempted to go a different direction with his latest film and unfortunately, it didn’t soar for him.