July 3, 2013

Despicable Me 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A certain nominee for Best Animated Feature and, depending on the quality, a potential winner as well.”
Oscar Results: The outstanding box office and strong reviews make this one of the handful of almost-certain Best Animated Feature nominees this year.
Box Office Prediction: $240 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The sequel to a popular hit is sure to be box office magic and with nothing but Monsters University as competition, it should have a strong opening weekend, pushing it to a solid post-original performance. Still, the villainy of the original was part of the reason it was so interesting. This time, we know Gru to be a big softy, so other than good will left over from the original, there isn’t much left to entice the audience.”
Box Office Results: $366.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] In spite of the film’s obvious flaws, this is one of the year’s major blockbusters, likely to be the year’s #1 animated movie unless Disney’s Frozen supplants it. Regardless, this total far exceeds expectations, which means a third film is almost guaranteed.

The Lone Ranger

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “While it’s unlikely that Johnny Depp can ride another Gore Verbinski film to an Oscar nomination remains to be seen, but this Summer tentpole doesn’t look like a top-tier Oscar contender. Consideration in the creative and technical categories is likely including possible inclusions in Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: The film tanked at the box office, which certainly kills any wild idea that Depp could get a nomination for it, but even the craft categories seem increasingly unlikely. Other than Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and possibly Visual Effects, the film isn’t in a very strong position, and even in those categories its chances are less than exciting.
Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. it’s hard to estimate where this adaptation of the classic television series will fall. Outside of the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, director Gore Verbinski and actor Johnny Depp’s box office performances have been lackluster or wildly varied with Depp’s biggest successes coming from his frequent collaborations with Tim Burton. The trailer suggests a film that’s similar to Pirates, but more closely resembles the new Sherlock Holmes. Looking back, Wild Wild West is the best comparison for this film and that feature took roughly $113 million back in 1999 (adjusting to $177 million in today’s dollars). And that film was considered something of a flop. But like that film, it’s buoyed by a notable performance from a somewhat successful box office draw, so I’m going to put it down for a cautious total that matches Wild Wild West, but it could get up to $300 million if it can match the Pirates success.”
Box Office Results: $89.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] My numbers were conservative, but nothing could prepare the box office for this sizable dud. Neither Johnny Depp nor Gore Verbinski and the Pirates of the Caribbean connection could edge the film past the $100 million mark. This costly dud was one of a series of high profile flops that ultimately showcased a displeased viewership.

July 12, 2013

Grown Ups 2

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. More of the same. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think the film will still pull solid numbers, but won’t come close to its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $133.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] Rebounding from what seemed to be a career nadir, Adam Sandler proved that when teamed up with other comedy actors and getting back to basics, he can still be a prolific box office champion. it exceeded my expectations, but in this day and age, anything under $200 million for a major motion picture has to be considered modestly disappointing.

Pacific Rim

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely to compete outside of the tech categories, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects nominations are all strong possibilities.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t exactly a box office dud, but it wasn’t an unqualified success. Although I still think it could compete in Visual Effects, its chances have diminished significantly and Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are also in trouble.
Box Office Prediction: $220 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. There’s the $300 million tally for the original Transformers and the $85 million total for Real Steel. Giant robots haven’t quite found their box office dominance yet. Michael Bay’s film had fanboy appeal thanks to its two-and-a-half-decade influence of young boys as an animated series and toy line. Yet, this seems to be far more action heavy than the Hugh Jackman starrer. With the disaster elements, giant robots and effects-laden brilliance of Guillermo del Toro, I’m going to hedge my bets and push it to a total closer to Transformers than Steel.”
Box Office Results: $101.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It’s very weird to call a $100 million-plus tally a flop, but considering the high expectations the film had going in, it’s a disappointment nonetheless. Still, it fared better than a lot of more high profile flops this summer.

Fruitvale Station (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The Weinstein Company picked this up at Sundance, thinking about how to turn it into an Oscar nominee. Keep your mind open to several categories for the film, mostly in the above-the-line categories and not the creative or techs.”
Oscar Results: While it might still seem like a strong contender, Harvey Weinstein has other higher profile films this year and I think this will end up getting minimal attention from him and in tandem the Academy.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. It may be The Weinstein Company and not Fox Searchlight, but this film feels a great deal like Beasts of the Southern Wild. A Summer release isn’t the best place for a film like this, so I’m going to stick close to Beasts $13 million total.”
Box Office Results: $16.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] While this isn’t a runaway indie hit, its $16 million total showcases that there’s an audience for this type of drama. It even went wide briefly, giving it a nice goose to its final numbers.

July 19, 2013

The Conjuring

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Average. There seems to be a sweet spot for haunted house/supernatural horror films. Looking at the last couple of years, nearly all of them ended up around $50 million at the box office, including The Woman in Black, the film that most closely resembles this feature.”
Box Office Results: $137.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Proving there’s a huge interest still for supernatural horror films, at least well made ones, The Conjuring was on of the year’s top horror releases putting to shame any idea that horror can’t still make money.

R.I.P.D.

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Like Men-in-Black to which it is easily comparable, it could be a strong contender for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Consideration in the sound categories and Best Visual Effects depend on how the film performs at the box office.”
Oscar Results: I would be simply astounded if this film made it anywhere near the Oscars. A box office dud doesn’t typically do well with the Academy and if it does, Makeup and Hairstyling is now it’s only hope.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Looking too much like Men in Black might help it pick up some market share. However, opening against RED 2 and The Conjuring, it’s male-targeted demographic is going to be quite busy and it’s beginning to look like it may be one of the season’s biggest flops.”
Box Office Results: $33.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] By the time the film released, no one had high hopes for this film’s performance, especially not after the raft of bombs that came out before it. Still, even by bomb standards, this is pretty big.

RED 2

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The first film was a big success, but will lightning strike twice for a film whose gimmick could easily wear thin. The opening weekend will tell us more, but for now, I’m predicting a total under its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $53.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not only did it underwhelm compared to its predecessor, it’s ultimate tally was quite a bit lower than expected showcasing the tough weekend on which it opened and the weakness of advertising to convey anything new in the way of originality.

Turbo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “One of the few non-sequel animated features this year to be a solid Best Animated Feature contender. It’s probably DreamWorks best chance at a nomination.”
Oscar Results: The lack of box office heft and the apparent decision by DreamWorks to focus on The Croods as its key entry for this year’s Oscar contest make this a film that no one was really that interested in seeing and the Academy will be very likely to ignore.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. With its nearest competitor two weeks old, this original animated feature could find itself reaping the benefit. It’s a decent spot to release a film, so $200 million is what it should expect to make. If it’s well received, it could go higher.”
Box Office Results: $82.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Flop] Amy animated film that performs below $100 million at the box office, unless it’s from underappreciated Hayao Miyazaki, is considered a failure. That label applies doubly if it’s one of the major animation houses and DreamWorks is one of the biggest.

Only God Forgives (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Nicholas Winding Refn’s prior film, Drive picked up a nomination in the tech categories and word out of Cannes wasn’t the kind of indie-breakthrough buzz needed to make it into Oscar’s good graces. I wouldn’t expect to see this one go very far, but a hard push by critics at the end of the year could help.”
Oscar Results: Critics were split on the film, which won’t bolster its chances. That almost no one went to see it puts a nail in its coffin.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Drive was his first and only hit. His debut films, the Pusher trilogy never made it into U.S. Box Office release, so based on what’s come before, I’d say that the mere presence of Ryan Gosling will give his potential a goose, but not much of one.”
Box Office Results: $779.2 K
Thoughts: [Flop] It could have been big, but wasn’t. Of course, Ryan Gosling hasn’t always had great luck at the box office since he abandoned his RomCom roots for more challenging work. A low total was expected, but this low is embarrassing.

July 26, 2013

The To-Do List

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s barely been any advertising for this film and the cast list isn’t terribly exciting. I don’t expect much from it and even my current prediction may be on the high end.”
Box Office Results: $3.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Teen and college-age audiences ddn’t come out to the theaters for this one, even though it was released during Summer Vacation. Still, this style of film has traditionally done better in the early months of the year, especially Spring Break. Chalk this one up as “ill-advised” in all areas.

The Wolverine

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. After the poorly received Origins film, the Wolverine character seems to be struggling at the box office. A lot depends on how much of an improvement this film is over its predecessor. Of course, an audience turned off by failure won’t necessarily turn out for a subsequent film. Of course, his competition for the weekend isn’t likely to be much of a hit, so it could give people an opportunity to catch up on something else or give him a whirl.”
Box Office Results: $132.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] For superhero films, this tally is fairly minor, but for the X-Men franchise, it isn’t too bad. With the frustration from the prior film seeping into audience minds, it’s likely the low total may have been a byproduct. However, the result is enough to suggest that the franchise and its six-clawed friend will have a long, healthy life.

Blue Jasmine (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Always keep an eye out on Woody Allen. While little is known about his new film, his last few have all been Oscar contenders even if they haven’t gotten nominations. His best chances are in the acting categories and Best Original Screenplay. Anywhere else, including Best Picture, will require the adoration of critics and a good box office return.”
Oscar Results: You can tell by Woody’s box office when he’s got a healthy bet for Oscar consideration and when he’s going to be ignored. This will be one of his favored films, though Best Picture is going to be a tough sell and Best Director is probably out. It will, however, be nominated for Best Actress and also likely to be slated in Best Original Screnplay.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Woody Allen has great days and he has bad ones. I’m penciling the film in for an average day and we’ll see how things go.”
Box Office Results: $32.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] By Woody’s standards, this is really strong and it ranks among his best performances at the box office in the modern era.