The DGA has been an accurate predictor of the Best Director winner at the Oscars in nearly every year they’ve existed. Discounting the unaligned eligibility periods of the first two years, the DGA has failed to predict Oscar in only seven contests: 1968, 1972, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2002, 2012. In three of those years (1985, 1995 and 2012, the DGA winner wasn’t even an Oscar nominee). Other than the double failure in the 2000’s, they have only failed once a decade in their “task” of predicting Best Director. Below are our personal predictions and, unlike prior years, none of us are absolutely certain about our selections.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Wesley Lovell: There’s a small part of me that thinks this could be Steve McQueen’s victory on his way to Oscar glory. After all, the DGA is a better predictor of the Best Picture Oscar than the PGA is. Yet, Alfonso Cuaron has won almost everything in sight, so it’s hard to bet against him.
Peter J. Patrick: Cuaron’s film is considered a visionary masterpiece while his closest rival, McQueen’s film is considered a great adaptation of a hard to mess with literary classic. Cuaron, the veteran Mexican director of Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Children of Men also has a more varied body of work than gifted British director McQueen whose Hunger and Shame are not as well known. I’d be very surprised if Cuaron loses this, but I’d be shocked if he loses it to anyone other than McQueen.
Tripp Burton: This is a nail-biter of a contest, and I’m not sure if it will solve the question of what will happen Oscar night as it usually does. I know a lot of people are predicting Cuaron here, who has won more Director prizes, but in awards that also award Best Picture. Without another chance to recognize 12 Years a Slave, my hunch is that McQueen sneaks by here. But don’t quote me on that.