2013 Precursor Predictions: Broadcast Film Critics

The annual right of passage known as the Critics Choice Awards will be telecast tonight on The CW. While not strictly the Critics’ Choice, since they don’t permit print or internet critics without high circulation and focuses mainly on critics whose work appears on television, they just happen to be better promoters and better predictors, but that’s because many of us suspect their critics vote for the films they think will get nominated for and/or win Oscars rather than the best of the year. It’s certainly a frequent debate, but their accuracy rate is still collectively strong, so we treat them as a prominent precursor. Below are our contributors’ predictions for tonight’s awards. Peter and I provided commentary, which follows each category.

BROADCAST FILM CRITICS AWARDS

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
American Hustle (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity (RU:Peter)
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

Wesley Lovell: This could be an interesting race, if only because American Hustle will win their comedy category and Gravity will win the sci-fi category. That frees them up to present the year’s Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave. Like last year when they gave future Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence the award for Best Actress in a Comedy and then gave fellow contender Jessica Chastain the “actual” Best Actress prize. They were able to reward both and they could conceivably point to the positioning as a “get” in the category.
Peter J. Patrick: A close call between 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle but I give the historical drama the edge.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2 (RU:Tripp)
Frozen (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Monsters University
The Wind Rises (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I’d love for them to continue the early trend of precursor season and reward The Wind Rises, but even I suspect the Oscars will go with Frozen making it even more likely that they pick that film instead of the better film.
Peter J. Patrick: Could really go either way.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze – Her
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Wesley Lovell: I think we’d all be relatively surprised if the BFCA didn’t follow the lemmings and pick Alfonso Cuaron as Best Director. However, it’s possible they could give either Steve McQueen (likely) or Davis O. Russell (less likely) an Oscar boost.
Peter J. Patrick: A flip-flop here with Best Picture.

Best Actor

Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter)
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Wesley Lovell: What they pick here will be whomever they think will win the Oscar. In a tight race, always look for them to avoid making waves. If they want to push Chiwetel Ejiofor to the forefront of the conversation until Saturday, they’ll give it to him, if they want to continue the existing narrative, Matthew McConaughey is their choice.
Peter J. Patrick: Another close race, but I give the edge to Ejiofor over McConnaughey.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Sandra Bullock – Gravity (RU:Tripp)
Judi Dench – Philomena (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Wesley Lovell: The frontrunner will remain the frontrunner. There will be no rocking-the-boat in this category (especially with Amy Adams and Sandra Bullock nominated in other categories where they are likely to win. That means Dench could pose a threat if anyone.
Peter J. Patrick: Blanchett is on a roll, but if there’s going to be an upset, Dench is the most likely to pull it off.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Jared Leto has been piling up accolades, more so than his co-star. That means any other result could be a surprise, but Michael Fassbender might show a heavy level of enthusiasm for 12 Years a Slave that has heretofore not been seen.
Peter J. Patrick: Another close race, but Leto seems to be out in front.

Best Supporting Actress

Scarlett Johansson – Her
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Wesley Lovell: They’ll give it Best Picture, so they may feel inclined to reward it elsewhere and since they gave Jennifer Lawrence an award last year, I don’t think they’ll feel obligated this year, meaning Lupita Nyong’o could get a needed late-season win. Of course, if they go Lawrence, then we could be looking at a two-time Oscar winner at a very young age.
Peter J. Patrick: Yet another close race which could go to either the newcomer or last year’s multiple best actress winner.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Blue Jasmine
Her (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Inside Llewyn Davis (RU:Peter)
Nebraska

Wesley Lovell: If the Golden Globes can pick Her to win, I don’t see why the BFCA can’t as well. Of course, if they want to try and play kingmaker and go with a perceived shift in direction, they could go with American Hustle even if that film isn’t really a feat of screenwriting.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t know what the thinking is on this one but these would be my picks.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
August: Osage County
Before Midnight (RU:Peter)
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: I have a hard time believing they’ll go anywhere other than their Best Picture winner, so 12 Years a Slave should win easily. Never put it past them to throw a wrench in the monkey and give it to The Wolf of Wall Street in order to stoke controversy.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably 12 Years, but you never know.

Best Score

12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter)
Gravity (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Her
Saving Mr. Banks

Wesley Lovell: There’s no left-field choice among these nominees to throw off conventional thinking as the Golden Globes did. Of course, they could still go with the least likely of these to get an Oscar nomination (Her), but I think it’s between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. I’m torn, but I’ll err on the side of caution and go with their Best Picture frontrunner.
Peter J. Patrick: Toss a coin on this one.

Best Song

Atlas – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Happy – Despicable Me 2
Let It Go – Frozen (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (RU:Peter)
Please, Mr. Kennedy – Inside Llewyn Davis (RU:Wesley)
Young and Beautiful – The Great Gatsby (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Will they try to predict the Oscars or rebuke them for declaring “Please, Mr. Kennedy” ineligible? I’m leaning towards predicting, but a thumbed nose wouldn’t be out of the question.
Peter J. Patrick: Will be either the catchy tune is the one by the best known composers.

Best Editing

12 Years a Slave (RU:Wesley)
American Hustle (RU:Tripp)
Captain Phillips
Gravity (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Rush (RU:Peter)
The Wolf of Wall Street

Wesley Lovell: They’ll throw bones to other Oscar contenders and since Gravity is a feat of editing more so than their Best Picture selection, I suspect they’ll go that route.
Peter J. Patrick: I think Gravity has this one in the bag.

Best Cinematography

12 Years a Slave (RU:Tripp)
Gravity (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Inside Llewyn Davis (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Nebraska
Prisoners

Wesley Lovell: Gravity is being discussed as the film that will finally win Emanuel Lubezki and Oscar. Who are the BFCA to ignore that possibility.
Peter J. Patrick: Gravity pretty much has it in the bag, but I like the Coen Bros. film for an upset.

Best Art Direction

12 Years a Slave (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Gravity (Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Great Gatsby (Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Her
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Wesley Lovell: The toss-up here is between Gravity, a film that would follow a recent CGI trend, or The Great Gatsby which would be entirely traditional. I’m leaning towards Gravity, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t win.
Peter J. Patrick: Either of these should win, but Her is a threat to both.

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
American Hustle (Wesley)
The Great Gatsby (Tripp, RU:Wesley)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Saving Mr. Banks (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While the more traditional winner of this category would be The Great Gatsby, you can’t beat the sensational period threads of American Hustle and I suspect some bones will be thrown its way.
Peter J. Patrick: Just a hunch they will want to award the Disney film somewhere.

Best Makeup

12 Years a Slave (RU:Peter)
American Hustle (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Rush (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: One of the defining elements of American Hustle are the hairstyles and while this category has typically gone towards films with heavy makeup work, I don’t think the BFCA will care since they only named two films that are obvious prosthetic works and two others that are prosthetic, but not as noticeable.
Peter J. Patrick: The most obvious in this category tends to win.

Best Visual Effects

Gravity (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim (RU:Tripp)
Star Trek: Into Darkness

Wesley Lovell: If they pick anything other than Gravity, I’ll eat my hat (not literally, I don’t like the flavor).
Peter J. Patrick: A slam-dunk for Gravity on this one.

Best Foreign Language Film

Blue Is the Warmest Color (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)
The Great Beauty (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Hunt
The Past
Wadjda

Wesley Lovell: Since Blue Is the Warmest Color isn’t Oscar eligible, I wonder if the BFCA will pick the film it wants to win the Oscar over the film they like better. Of course, they may not love Blue as much as others. It will be a tight race and I’m still waffling my decision, but right now I lean towards Italy’s nominee.
Peter J. Patrick: Could be either or.

Best Documentary Feature

20 Feet from Stardom (RU:Tripp)
The Act of Killing (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Blackfish (Tripp, RU:Peter)
Stories We Tell (Wesley)
Tim’s Vermeer

Wesley Lovell: Any one of these could win the big prize and rolling a die to determine who wins would be just as effective as guessing. I’m not even close to 50% certain of my pick, but I went with Stories We Tell, which has been one of the dominant documentaries this year.
Peter J. Patrick: This is my best guess, but it could be any of the nominees in this category.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Asa Butterfield – Ender’s Game
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Liam James – The Way, Way Back
Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief (RU:Tripp)
Tye Sheridan – Mud (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Only one of these films is nominated for a major award and I think they’ll give the attention to an actress who might have made their Best Actress slate in any other year. Exarchopoulos should win this, but I’m not going to bet the farm on it.
Peter J. Patrick: Looks like Exarchopoulos has it in the bag, but Sheridan would be a perfectly acceptable surprise winner.

Best Acting Ensemble

American Hustle (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)
The Wolf of Wall Street

Wesley Lovell: While 12 Years a Slave has a terrific cast, and August: Osage County and Lee Daniels’ The Butler have sizable ones, American Hustle‘s stars have more nominations this year than any other with the BFCA, so this is a catch-all place to reward them even if they don’t reward them elsewhere (which doesn’t look too likely outside of the specialized comedy categories).
Peter J. Patrick: I think the impeccable cast of 12 Years a Slave would be the most deserving, but you never know how much of a pull star power has with this group.

Best Action Movie

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Wesley, Peter)
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor (RU:Tripp)
Rush (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Star Trek: Into Darkness

Wesley Lovell: Lone Survivor may be the buzz right now, but there are three films I would expect them to reward first. Iron Man 3 seems old hat, so it could be Rush, but I am leaning towards the popular and critically acclaimed The Hunger Games: Catching Fire to win, though I wouldn’t be surprised otherwise.
Peter J. Patrick: Don’t really know, don’t much care.

Best Actor in an Action Movie

Henry Cavill – Man of Steel
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man 3 (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Brad Pitt – World War Z
Mark Wahlberg – Lone Survivor (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Some of these selections seem completely bizarre and while Mark Wahlberg gives the more dramatic turn, I have a hard time picking him in lieu of Robert Downey Jr. However, the heftier weight of Lone Survivor leads me to believe he might pull this one off.
Peter J. Patrick: Wahlberg’s film may be too knew to have caught on, but Downey is always available for fallback.

Best Actress in an Action Movie

Sandra Bullock – Gravity (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gwyneth Paltrow – Iron Man 3

Wesley Lovell: Here’s where they’ll have their chance to recognize Sandra Bullock. I’d be shocked if they didn’t pick their only Best Actress nominee in the bunch, but Jennifer Lawrence would be fitting alternative.
Peter J. Patrick: Bullock for sure.

Best Comedy

American Hustle (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Enough Said (RU:Peter)
The Heat
This Is the End
The Way, Way Back
The World’s End (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Only one of these is nominated for Best Picture, so bet on that one.
Peter J. Patrick: No contest, really, American Hustle will win this one.

Best Actor in a Comedy

Christian Bale – American Hustle (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
James Gandolfini – Enough Said (RU:Peter)
Simon Pegg – The World’s End
Sam Rockwell – The Way, Way Back

Wesley Lovell: There are two prominent performances here. One is nominated for Best Actor, one is not (nor are the other three). I’m leaning towards the actor that likely missed the Best Actor lineup by a hair and this gives the BFCA a chance to recognize him.
Peter J. Patrick: The biggest name easily wins this one.

Best Actress in a Comedy

Amy Adams – American Hustle (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Sandra Bullock – The Heat
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha (RU:Wesley)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said (RU:Peter)
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Best Actress nominee Amy Adams should win this one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked elsewhere. At least not completely surprised.
Peter J. Patrick: Adams should win this one handily.