September 6-8, 2013

Riddick

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unexceptional. Opening so soon after Labor Day is typically a bad sign for a film. While it’s not the official Labor Day weekend when kids and young adults are spending the last days of Summer enjoying their freedom, it’s close enough that I wouldn’t expect much from the film. The original film in the franchise made just over $57 million while the second and most recent entry scored under $40 million. Time has gone by and the character [of] Riddick has a dedicated following, but I don’t think they’re as potent a market as the studio is expecting.”
Box Office Results: $42.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Right on target, the film barely outperformed its predecessor, but adjusting for inflation, it significantly underperformed.

September 13-15, 2013

The Family

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. You have to believe that Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer playing an ex-Mafia couple would drum up plenty of interested business. And it’s possible the film could play well to a demographic that hasn’t had much to see at the theater; however, the film hasn’t gotten nearly the advertising campaign that it needs to be a runaway success.”
Box Office Results: $36.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] And a runaway success it was not. I’m sure the producers would have loved to duplicate We’re the Millers‘ success, but they didn’t even come close.

Insidious Chapter 2

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film was a modest horror success, which typically means a sequel will perform well at the box office. However recent trends suggest sequels aren’t necessarily performing better if they don’t seem necessary. Take for example The Last Exorcism, Part II, which was a flop earlier this year in spite of a successful predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $83.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] There still appears to be life in the Insidious franchise, even though it’s just starting. While not the huge hit that Paranormal Activity was, these numbers dictate that multiple sequels will follow.

Blue Caprice (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on how critics and audiences respond to the film, it could be a contender, but I’m guessing it ends up overshadowed by other more prominent festival entries.”
Oscar Results: Critics liked it well enough, but it never made it out of the festival circuit with any level of buzz.
Box Office Prediction: $4 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The events the film depicts are ripe for tension and creativity, however the film hasn’t gotten a lot of advance buzz or advertisement. That it’s so near releasing is not a positive thing.”
Box Office Results: $92.3 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Even for an indie drama with strong reviews, this result is terrible.

Jayne Mansfield’s Car (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Since 1996, when he won the Oscar for Sling Blade, Thornton has received one Oscar nomination for acting in A Simple Plan in 1998. There doesn’t seem to be anyone clamoring for more of the same so far.”
Oscar Results: It was more of the same for Thornton. His film was a flop with critics and never moved an inch towards Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has a catchy title and has been long chatted about as Billy Bob Thornton’s first film in over a decade and only his third since his highly successful and acclaimed debut Sling Blade. That so little attention is being afforded the film does not bode well for its chances.”
Box Office Results: $14.8 K
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s not surprising that a film with a 33% rotten rating from Rotten Tomatoes wouldn’t have made much of an impact at the specialty box office.

September 20-22, 2013

Battle of the Year

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Meager. Another dancing competition film. The last several haven’t done much box office, but who knows for sure if the audience will suddenly turn out?”
Box Office Results: $8.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Is the Dance Flick genre dead? Not necessarily. The film didn’t get a very good advertising push and was absolutely slaughtered by critics (4% on Rotten Tomatoes).

Prisoners

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Normally, when I say “None,” I don’t expect the film to have any Oscar legs and while that seemed generally true with this film, Oscar still gave it one mention for Best Cinematography. A technical nomination isn’t really much of a success.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The film has a strong cast of recognizable faces and touches on a tender subject that audiences may be able to empathize with. It’s hard to know for sure if this formula will work or not, but they’ve been advertising a lot and there aren’t many similar films in the marketplace, so the possibilities are good.”
Box Office Results: $61.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] That tender subject may have been the reason it wasn’t the unqualified success I predicted. Still, a $60 million-plus total isn’t bad for such a film.

Rush (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Howard has an uneven history with Oscar. He’s only had two contenders since he won Best Picture and Best Director for A Beautiful Mind; and Cinderella Man struggled with the Academy. Frost/Nixon did much better and is the more recent example. Of course, Rush isn’t much like these films and better conjures images of a film like Apollo 13, which was both a box office hit and an Oscar contender. This year is overflowing with potential contenders, so it’s hard to say if the film can turn its period dramatics into critical and Oscar acclaim, but it’s possible and if all else fails, it should be a strong contender in the tech categories.”
Oscar Results: The film hit a road bump when it bombed at the box office, then critics weren’t all that impressed, though Daniel Bruhl showed up in a few places for Best Supporting Actor and was frequently considered one of the film’s better shots at a nomination. In the end, Oscar voters just didn’t care enough and the film ended up with bupkis.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Ron Howard has a decent track record with the box office. Discarde his comedic failure with The Dilemma and his last film made easily $133 million. Most of his non-mass audience features haven’t been great box office behemoths, but all in all he’s had a very successful history. His trailer for Rush is adrenaline-fueled and should borrow a nice cross-segment of the population.”
Box Office Results: $26.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Chris Hemsworth is one of the most popular and recognizable actors working today. Racing is a wildly popular sport around the world, but in the U.S. Formula 1 takes a back seat to NASCAR. This latter issue may have had more impact on the lack of attendance than anything. Advertising was solid and Hemsworth was visibly everywhere. It just couldn’t succeed.

September 27-29, 2013

Baggage Claim

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Even if the film had Tyler Perry’s name over the title, I still doubt it would be much of a force at the box office. The premise is a bit facile and there has been little in the way of advertising.”
Box Office Results: $21.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Without Tyler Perry’s name, it seems like black romantic comedies just aren’t was popular, though advertising could have been better for this film.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The first film, in spite of decent reviews, never managed to factor in the Oscar competition. This year, however, the film has less laudable competition, which could give it a leg-up in terms of nominations. Still, it’s not from one of the heavy-hitters, so a win isn’t as likely.”
Oscar Results: Had the film been an unqualified success with critics, it might have done better, but there were just too many other notable films to come along.
Box Office Prediction: $130 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The first film was a decent hit and I don’t see why the sequel won’t be able to build upon that pre-existing fanbase. I doubt it will reach the level of Pixar or DreamWorks sequels, but a strong tally over $100 million should be easy.”
Box Office Results: $118.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it’s not a terrible total, the result is somewhat lackluster compared to most other animated films.

Don Jon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It has received decent advanced word and was even featured recently in a Hollywood Reporter article about awards season and actor-directors. However, I have a hard time believing this film, especially releasing in August, will make much of a splash with Oscar.”
Oscar Results: It was initially slated for August, but pushed back to September. That fact didn’t hurt its Oscar chances, but my belief that it wouldn’t be a factor was well founded.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Joseph Gordon-Levitt has yet to open a film well. Last year at this time, he tried an bike-riding action film and didn’t do very well. This concept is a little more appealing to the frequently-ignored female demographic, so it could do well, but a Magic Mike-style success is unlikely.”
Box Office Results: $24.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] This indie did well enough, but never became a hit with mass audiences.

Therese (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Two films this year use Therese in their title. One is a French foreign language film starring Audrey Tautou. The other is an English-language film set in 1860’s Paris. The plots may not be similar, but the titles are and that kind of confusion could either benefit both or impede both. Regarldess, neither film sound like major Oscar contenders, though the former at least has potential if submitted by France for Oscar consideration.”
Oscar Results: The film had no real shot at nomination and it succeeded at doing just that.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A period sexual drama doesn’t sound like something audiences typically love, at least in this day and age. Gone are the days of Dangerous Liaisons. Jessica Lange might be a prominent actress, but in a supporting role against two actors who’ve yet to try and prove themselves as box office draws, I don’t see much hope outside of the specialty market.”
Box Office Results: $101.9 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Audiences didn’t love the idea and made the film a flop at the specialty box office, which is saying a lot.