October 4-6, 2013

Gravity

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Critics won’t be enough to push this into Oscar contention. Audiences must respond to the film and it must make a strong showing with the precursors. District 9 managed a Best Picture berth over similar odds, so it’s possible.”
Oscar Results: It was a huge hit at the box office, which helped bolster the film’s Oscar profile and with critics rallying behind, the film scored ten nominations, tied for most this year, and then walked away with a staggering seven including Best Director, though, like Star Wars before it, it did not win Best Picture.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Sci-Fi hasn’t been doing particularly well this year (or in years past for that matter) with a number of high profile flops and weak performances. This one might buck the trend, but a lot will depend not on stars George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, but on the marketing effort and the response from critics. Reviews are trickling in from its festival run and critics seem to be largely impressed, which could help.”
Box Office Results: $271.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] The film has been released on DVD, so a potential increase in box office isn’t likely. However, this tally is very impressive considering we weren’t quite sure how audiences would react to a film set in space with only one character. It ended up one of the biggest hits of the year thanks to Sandra Bullock and a must-see-on-IMAX mentality.

Runner Runner

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The film sports two name actors who have small caches of cachet. While neither has done particularly well opening a film, counter-programming could benefit this film greatly. Critics deriding the film, might spell disaster, but strong or above-average support may make it a hit.”
Box Office Results: $19.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Proof that big names don’t necessarily draw big audiences, this film failed to generate much buzz and, with critics ripping it apart, it wasn’t able to overcome the strength of popularity that was Gravity.

October 11-13, 2013

Captain Phillips

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Anytime Greengrass makes a movie, buzz builds. The last time he made one, The Green Zone, that buzz died as soon as it was released. He needs a strong balance of critic notices and audience attention to be a hit. The dramatic nature of the film might be enough, but it will desparately need the help of critics.”
Oscar Results: Helped immeasurably by critics, the film stumbled at the Oscar nominations, failing to earn expected nods in Best Actor for Tom Hanks and in Best Director for Greengrass. It still did nicely and pulled in a few guild awards before going home empty-handed on Oscar night.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Without the Bourne franchise, Paul Greengrass has never opened a movie over $35 million. This time, he has the added benefit of box office draw Tom Hanks. This isn’t your typical Hanks film, so his fans might not flock to the theater, but the harrowing real-life nature of the film may bolster its attendance even beyond what I’m currently predicting.”
Box Office Results: $107.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] That real life connection, paired with Greengrass’ heavily action-oriented directing style, gave the film a sizable boost pushing it past the $100 million mark, but not by a lot. It’s still in limited release, likely waiting to see how its Oscar haul might have affected it, but I suspect it will be leaving theaters sooner rather than later.

Machete Kills

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The only segment of the Grindhouse feature that made it to the big screen now has a sequel in spite of its horribly lackluster performance. An uptick in box office is expected, but if the studio really thinks audiences will flock to see this sequel and not wait for it on home video, they may be disappointed.”
Box Office Results: $8.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not only did auds not care to take in a sequel to a film they barely liked the first time, they stayed away in droves, leading the film to flop miserably at the box office.

The Fifth Estate (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “If critics fall in love with the film, it could make some inroads into the Oscar race, but at this point I can only see star Benedic Cumberbatch in the competition and even he’s going to struggle against a high-profile Best Actor slate.”
Oscar Results: Everything about this movie put critics off and the film did so poorly with them that the minute it was seen at the festivals, buzz died entirely. The film had no shot.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Julian Assange isn’t the most popular figure, so great notices from critics will be required for this film to do more than typical limited-release business.”
Box Office Results: $3.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While it didn’t finish far off from my prediction, you have to believe this number is not what they hoped. Of course, when your subject is living and he says it’s inaccurate, you may have problems convincing people its important enough to catch on the big screen.

Romeo and Juliet (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “If critics like it and the film does well at the box office, a few creative awards might fall in line for the film, but don’t expect it to be a huge contender.”
Oscar Results: Not only was it not a huge contender, it barely made a blip on the big screen. It was forgotten almost as quickly as it was announced. A film that doesn’t get much media attention ahead of its release needs something to give it a boost and it didn’t get anything.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Adaptations of Romeo and Juliet aren’t guaranteed hits, which may explain why the film is getting a limited release to start. They hope to build buzz before releasing wide, but I don’t think it’s going to do much good. Even the much-ballyhooed version by Baz Luhrmann couldn’t manage a $50 million box office total.”
Box Office Results: $1.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film was released quietly. VERY quietly. Few knew the film was even being made and even fewer care enough to check it out at the theater.

October 18-20, 2013

Carrie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The original film earned nominations for Best Actress (Sissy Spacek) and Best Supporting Actress (Piper Laurie), but that film was directed by prominent filmmaker Brian de Palma. This time we have a prominent female filmmaker at the helm and a strong cast that includes Chloe Grace Moretz and Julianne Moore. If Best Supporting Actress is particularly weak this year, Moore could sneak in. However, Moretz won’t make the cut and the film is unlikely to figure in any other categories.”
Oscar Results: Mark this one down as another in a long string of remakes of Oscar winners thta failed to produce any measurable buzz. Moretz is no Spacek and Moore, while a fantastic level, on par with Laurie (and possibly more impressive), there was nothing that made this remake standout, especially not with critics who were largely mixed.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s been three decades since the original film became a horror classic. Remaking such films isn’t always advisable. The derided sequel The Rage: Carrie 2 was a box office flop. Enough time may have elapsed to make this a strong hit. And with no other horror films in release ahead of the Halloween holiday, it’s possible this will be pretty damned big.”
Box Office Results: $35.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] More proof that remakes aren’t always a wise idea. Carrie was such a singular achievement that it seemed odd to want to remake it. Even Alfred Hitchcock’s Psycho couldn’t generate interest when it was remade and that is ostensibly a classic. The film still should have done particularly strong numbers at the box office, but it was a flop. When the weekend finds the biggest box office champion is in an indie film released in limited to later expand can top your numbers, you have a problem.

Escape Plan

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Average. Alone, these two actors have found it difficult to make a buck at the box office. When combined with a number of other actors, they have done much better. This will be the first real test of having two major old action stars together. Will the audience see this as another vainglorious attempt to retain their youthful pocketbooks or will they buy the concept in full?”
Box Office Results: $25.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] An interesting premise just couldn’t get butts in the seats. Gone are the days of Arnold Schwarzeneggar and Sylvester Stallone being able to command attention at the box office. Instead, they will continue to flop around like fishes out of water.

All Is Lost (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “J.C. Chandor’s highly anticipated follow-up to Margin Call tries to go the Arbitrage route giving a former box office heavyweight a prominent acting vehicle. The film got great buzz out of Sundance, but following Telluride, talk has diminished a little. When the film releases in full, we’ll see where the truth lies.”
Oscar Results: Not for lack of trying, the film failed to gain much Oscar traction. It nabbed a single nomination in Sound Editing, but the rest of the film’s elements, including contender Robert Redford were no-shows.
Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Robert Redford hasn’t been a box office draw since the 1970’s. Behind the camera, his films have been flops, but this is the first time he’s headlined a film in quite some time. The film will release limitedly and I have a feeling that’s where it will stay, but Oscar buzz could propel it higher.”
Box Office Results: $6.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Even by indie standards, this is mediocre. That’s especially true when you consider that producers platformed the release, but eventually went wide in hopes of garnering additional attention from audiences. They weren’t engaged.

12 Years a Slave (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “With its Telluride premiere, this film has vaulted into a high position as an Oscar contender, charging its way towards a number of potential firsts, including first black director to win Best Director as well as first Best Picture winner with a black actor in the central role (In the Heat of the Night counts as the first with A central role). The film seems to be building steam and may be the film to beat this year in a number of categories.”
Oscar Results: It stumbled through the early precursors, but held on to secure three Oscars, including Best Picture becoming the first by a black director to do so and the first to have a black solo lead actor. The film also won for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Lupita Nyong’o. Not the juggernaut it first appeared, but a sufficient result nonetheless.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. As an indie entry, I predict strong box office. As a wide release, I’m not so certain. With Lee Daniels’ The Butler already draining historical-epic interest, will this likely more acclaimed film do sufficiently well with audiences?”
Box Office Results: $53.0 M (STILL IN WIDE RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The film is still performing at the box office, and with the Best Picture win so recent, the film should have little trouble making at least double my initial prediction. It’s not the lowest grossing Best Picture winner of the last decade, but considering the subject matter and being helmed by a director most audiences have never heard of, these numbers aren’t bad.

October 25-27, 2013

The Counselor

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Cormac McCarthy may have generated No Country for Old Men as an Oscar-winning adaptation of one of his novels, but nothing else seems to be sticking. This could buck the trend, but the season’s already chock-full of contenders, so I doubt it will be given much of a thought.”
Oscar Results: Critics were largely unimpressed and the box office was dismal. The film was forgotten almost as soon as it was released.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Ridley Scott has done well at the box office, but his Comarc McCarthy adaptation doesn’t seem like it’s rife for box office appeal. Good word of mouth and decent reviews could change that.”
Box Office Results: $16.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Put strong, familiar actors into oddball roles under the direction of a box office-capable director and you should have had a hit. However, with the critics not liking it much and enthusiasm limited, the film ultimately flopped.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Never underestimate the use of prosthetics. The Academy’s makeup artists love this kind of work and it should have been more on the radar than it was. Of course, when you only have one character employing the makeup, it seems rather odd for the Oscars to give it a second look, but they did.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While the most recent Jackass was huge at the box office, this feature has none of the trademark cast audiences are used to and while seeing an old man punk a bunch of younger folks might work on TV, even Betty White couldn’t turn her similarly-themed series into a hit and she’s 100-times funnier than anyone associated with Jackass. It could still end up doing good business, but it wont’ be quite the hit its predecessor was.”
Box Office Results: $102.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Had “Jackass Presents” not been the lead-in of the title, the film wouldn’t have performed nearly as well as it did. While it wasn’t quite up to the most recent Jackass film, it surpassed the first two making this an unqualified hit.

Blue Is the Warmest Color (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The Academy doesn’t particularly care for challenging topics. With the influx of voters and a slight change in voting requirements, something more risky might make it through. If it’s an official submission. If not, I don’t see the film entering the race very easily.”
Oscar Results: Just like the NC-17 rating killed Shame‘s chances at the Oscars recently when that film seemed like a guaranteed Best Actor nominee, it’s not surprising that they also ignored the year’s most celebrated foreign language film. It was released too late to be Oscar eligible for the Foreign Language Film category, but the rest of the branches didn’t seem to care to give it any recognition elsewise.
Box Office Prediction: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A foreign language gay indie drama seems like it might be the worst type of film to storm the specialty box office; however, the Cannes hit is said to be challenging to watch, but may generate generous word-of-mouth. A hefty total, though, will require strong Oscar consideration.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For an NC-17 foreign film about a lesbian relationship, you have to believe this tally is rather strong, if not impressive. Had it been an Oscar nominee, it might have done even better.