There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

December 6, 2013

Out of the Furnace

Premise: From IMDb: “When Rodney Baze mysteriously disappears and law enforcement fails to follow through, his older brother, Russell, takes matters into his own hands to find justice.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The previews aren’t terribly good and it doesn’t seem like the film has generated anything in the way of buzz. That combination with the post-Thanksgiving slotting should keep the film from doing very well. Scheduling it here suggests the studio doesn’t have much confidence. They hope for a hit, but they don’t expect it. As a frame of reference, the same thing happened to Brad Pitt’s Killing Them Softly last year, but this may be a bit more accessible than that film.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. There’s talk about the film being an Oscar contender and the names attached to the film might indicate that; however, Killing Them Softly had similar buzz and ended up almost completely ignored. I suspect the same fate here.

Inside Llewyn Davis (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A week in the life of a young singer as he navigates the Greenwich Village folk scene of 1961.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Good. For indie directors, Joel and Ethan Coen have done fairly strong business on the open marketplace. While it’s unlikely the film will touch their top film today (True Grit), it won’t be as dismal a performer as A Serious Man. I expect it will generate business on the Burn After Reading level and possibly as high as No Country for Old Men if Oscar takes notice.
Oscar Prospects: Good. With ten nomination slots for Best Picture possible, there’s little doubt their latest won’t enter the list. Even A Serious Man managed a nomination even if some consider it minor Coens. This film is doing far better with critics it seems and has more accessible material in it, which should help it win over audiences, which could bolster its chances at the Oscar. I suspect, though, that other than the creative categories, this film will probably end up with A Serious Man-level above-the-line support with some acting nominations also possible.

December 13, 2013

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Premise: From IMDb: “The Dwarves, Bilbo and Gandalf have successfully escaped the Misty Mountains, and Bilbo has gained the One Ring. They all continue their journey to get their gold back from the Dragon, Smaug.”
Box Office Prospects: $340 M
Expectations: Excellent. Peter Jackson is guaranteed to top $250 million with his fifth film set in the J.R.R. Tolkien universe. While An Unexpected Journey lagged behind the prior three films slightly, it still topped $300 million. This second adventure is a lot more action oriented and features the famed dragon of the novel, Smaug. With the promise of more compelling action than its predecessor, I suspect The Desolation of Smaug will out-perform Journey and possibly approach beating The Two Towers.
Oscar Prospects: Good. While the first three films were all Oscar juggernauts with all of them earning Best Picture nominations, the weaknesses of the first Hobbit torpedoed its chances in the above-the-line categories. It still earned three Oscar nominations. It may not seem like much, but it’s still a good result. I suspect this film will follow a similar path, though much beyond three isn’t really expected unless it turns out to be a far better film than its predecessor (at least in some eyes).

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Premise: From IMDb: “Madea dispenses her unique form of holiday spirit on rural town when she’s coaxed into helping a friend pay her daughter a surprise visit in the country for Christmas.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Good. Tyler Perry’s defining character is Madea, a character he plays in drag to great success. Other than Big Happy Family, all of his Madea films have passed $60 million even when his non-Madea efforts have struggled to keep up. Combine that with the Christmas-themed elements and you could see a decent-sized holiday hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

American Hustle (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A con man, Irving Rosenfeld, along with his seductive British partner Sydney Prosser is forced to work for a wild FBI agent Richie DiMaso. DiMaso pushes them into a world of Jersey powerbrokers and mafia.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. Subject matter and cast should help the film succeed, though that prospect should have helped a film like Gangster Squad and didn’t. Still, this cast has a lot more going for it than that film and the director’s on something of a populist renaissance in recent years.
Oscar Prospects: Good. On name alone, the film should be a strong contender. However, it’s one of the last Oscar contenders not yet seen by critics. If it’s exceptionally good, it could be a strong contender and even if it isn’t, the nominations in the creative categories should be assured.

Saving Mr. Banks (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Author P. L. Travers reflects on her difficult childhood while meeting with filmmaker Walt Disney during production for the adaptation of her novel, Mary Poppins.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. The Disney connection is the selling point of the film and it’s being positioned as a family feature with romantic elements, which could give it broad cross-category appeal. Whether the movie can do huge business depends on whether it really is a universal story or if the only selling points are Disney and Mary Poppins and little else. Criics may help, but they won’t be definitively supportive.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The film has generated a lot of buzz since it started making appearances at festivals, but full fledged reviews haven’t made the circuits yet. Still, the positive receipt of the film could go a long way in securing it Oscar consideration. Whether it can make it into Best Picture or not is a big question, but Emma Thompson is sounding more like an assured Best Actress nominee every day. Tom Hanks, as Walt Disney, is now being pushed in Best Supporting Actor, but there’s backlash brewing over this decision, so he may end up non-nominated. The film could also end up in several creative categories if it’s fanciful enough.

December 20, 2013

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Premise: From IMDb: “With the 70s behind him, San Diego’s top rated newsman, Ron Burgundy, returns to take New York’s first 24-hour news channel by storm.”
Box Office Prospects: $135 M
Expectations: Strong. The first film rode strong word of mouth to a $85 million tally back in 2004. After nine years and lots of anticipation, the studios are bringing the ’70’s newscasters back for another go at the box office. With the popularity of the property from the home video market and critics alike, it’s likely the film will pull in quite a bit more than its predecessor. How much more is uncertain.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Walking with Dinosaurs

Premise: From IMDb: “See and feel what it was like when dinosaurs ruled the Earth, in a story where an underdog dino triumphs to become a hero for the ages.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It’s a family film that might not appeal too much to families. Dinosaur films haven’t had the best of luck at the box office, Jurassic Park exclusive. Entering the holiday fray requires some great marketing and so far this film hasn’t gotten a very good push. It could do so-so business, but I wouldn’t expect much.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Her (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A lonely writer develops an unlikely relationship with his newly purchased operating system that’s designed to meet his every need.”
Box Office Prospects: $22 M
Expectations: Poor. Spike Jonze has made three films prior to this, Being John Malkovich, Adaptation. and Where the Wild Things Are. He’s been making videos in between, but the limited output has made it difficult for anyone to latch onto his name as a go-to box office draw. His first two films made just over $22 million each while the more kid-friendly Wild Things managed about $77 million. This doesn’t have the broad-audience appeal of the latter film and seems more along the quirky lines of his first two, thus why I’m predicting a similar $22 million.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. Malkovich earned three Oscar nominations, one in acting, one in direction and one in writing. Adaptation. nabbed three acting nominations and one writing nomination. It’s possible that Her will also pick up an acting nomination; although Best Actor is very tight this year, but Joaquin Phoenix already pushed through to a nomination once for The Master, thus it’s quite possible. It’s best opportunity is in writing where it would more easily follow his first two films’ trajectories. Other than that, a 10-wide field for Best Picture could give it a chance there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The Past (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An Iranian man deserts his French wife and two children to return to his homeland. Meanwhile, his wife starts up a new relationship, a reality her husband confronts upon his wife’s request for a divorce.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Decent. For a foreign language film, it should do well; however, like Asghar Farhadi’s prior film, a broad appeal is unlikely to materialize even with excellent notices from critics and Oscars in the bank.
Oscar Prospects: Good. It’s one of the key players in this year’s Best Foreign Language Film race, with a likely nomination coming out of it. A victory, however, is unlikely.

December 25, 2013

47 Ronin

Premise: From IMDb: “A band of samurai set out to avenge the death and dishonor of their master at the hands of a ruthless shogun.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. The martial arts subgenre has struggled in the U.S. marketplace. Even with a globally popular actor like Keanu Reeves on board, there’s not much indication that this film will be terribly successful. Of course, the fantastical elements could easily make it a modest hit for the genre, but anything more than that seems unlikely.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Justin Bieber’s Believe

Premise: From IMDb: “A backstage and on-stage look at Justin Bieber during his rise to super stardom.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 K
Expectations: Uncertain. Concert documentaries haven’t done particularly well in recent years, though Justin Bieber still commands a legion of followers. His last theatrical outing, two years ago, nabbed $73 million. It won’t make that level this year considering the prior film released in February when there was hardly anything else at the theater. Now, Bieber must compete with traditional holiday audiences which aren’t terribly keen on giving trifles their time or money.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Grudge Match

Premise: From IMDb: “A pair of aging boxing rivals are coaxed out of retirement to fight one final bout — 30 years after their last match.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Good. It’s Rocky versus Raging Bull. That isn’t how it’s being sold, but those of a certain age will immediately come to that realization. Well past their prime, Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro are playing that up in a comedy that’s sure to excel in a comedy-light holiday environment.
Oscar Prospects: None. The Academy doesn’t typically love comedy and the trailer makes this look like a film that isn’t even goign to approach Oscar consideration.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Premise: From IMDb: “An office worker who lives inside fantasy worlds where he gets to live an adventurous life while romancing his co-worker sets off a global journey to fix things when both of their jobs are threatened.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Excellent. In spite of his major dud with The Watch, most of Ben Stiller’s box office performances in recent years have been impressive. He typically excels when he’s starring alone with a small, but reliable band of supporting actors of notable repute. That doesn’t mean he’s always going to be successful, but considering the release window for this film and the fantastical elements showcasing Stiller’s more subdued talents, I expect this to be the season’s biggest original hit.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Some are saying this is going to be a major Oscar contender, but nothing about this remake gets me to thinking that’s possible. There’s a lot of competition this year and critics would have to be bowled over for this film to trump a lot of what’s out there. However, until the reviews come in, it’s impossible to tell just how much Oscar traction the film will have outside of the creative and technical categories.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Premise: From IMDb: “Based on the true story of Jordan Belfort, from his rise to a wealthy stockbroker living the high life to his fall involving crime, corruption and the federal government.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. Since 2000, Martin Scorsese has been a guaranteed hit maker. The weakest performer of his fiction films in the last thirteen years was two years ago with Hugo, which still managed $73 million. With Leonardo DiCaprio hot off his hit The Great Gatsby and the premise of the film likely striking a chord with middle America, I think we’re looking at a performance close to, if not surpassing century mark.
Oscar Prospects: Good. If Scorsese’s been a hit with the box office, he’s done just as well, if not better with the Oscars, capturing his first Oscar for The Departed seven years ago. Other than Shutter Island, Scorsese has earned a Best Picture nomination for each of his films released since 2000. Add to that the sheer bounty of Oscars given to those films and it’s almost guaranteed that his film will be a nominee in several categories, even Best Picture.

August: Osage County (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the lives of the strong-willed women of the Weston family, whose paths have diverged until a family crisis brings them back to the Oklahoma house they grew up in, and to the dysfunctional woman who raised them.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. With Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts on board, you would think the film had a strong chance at being a hit. However, neither have had much luck in recent years and adaptations of stage plays have been even more dismal performers. Still, the familial subject matter and release window, combined with Oscar consideration, should propel the film to a decent tally.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Once thought to be unbeatable going into the 2013 Oscar race, several films have emerged that make the film’s potential success diminish. Look for a decent showing at the Oscars with Harvey Weinstein behind it, but I wouldn’t expect too many opportunities for the film to take home Oscars this year.

Labor Day (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Depressed single mom Adele and her son Henry offer a wounded, fearsome man a ride. As police search town for the escaped convict, the mother and son gradually learn his true story as their options become increasingly limited.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. Unlike his contemporary, Alexander Payne, Reitman has never completely connected with audiences giving him two hits out of the four films he’s directed. Unlike Up in the Air and Juno, nothing about Labor Day suggests he’ll do that much business and indications are strong that he’ll more likely do business closer to his last filmed failure Young Adult.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Based on the reception of Reitman’s first three films, he was supposed to be a new it-boy for the Oscars. The problem is his fourth film managed to be unimpressive and early word is Labor Day isn’t better. The Oscars, with plenty of other voices to recognize this year won’t even give him the time fo day, not even with Oscar wunderkind Kate Winslet starring.