Handicapping the 1944 Oscars for the ten most likely Best Picture nominees was relatively easy compared to 1945.

1945’s five Best Picture nominees were Anchors Aweigh; The Bells of St. Mary’s; The Lost Weekend; Mildred Pierce and Spellbound. The directors of three of them, Leo McCarey (The Bells of St. Mary’s); Billy Wilder (The Lost Weekend) and Alfred Hitchcock (Spellbound) were also nominated. The two whose films failed to make the cut were Clarence Brown (National Velvet) and Jean Renoir (The Southerner). Certainly National Velvet with its actual wins for Supporting Actress (Anne Revere) and Film Editing and a fourth nomination for Cinematography could logically be assumed to earn a fifth nod for Best Picture.

The Southerner’s place among the top ten is a little more questionable. Aside from Renoir’s nod, the film garnered only one other nomination. It was one of twenty-one nominees for Best Scoring of a Dramatic Film. Still, with its unsparing look at the bleak life of poor Southern sharecroppers, and a script said to have been penned by William Faulkner, though he is not officially credited, it is a film that is difficult to ignore. I will add it to the mix.

What then, would be the remaining three nominees to complete a ten Best Picture scenario?

Certainly The Keys of the Kingdom with its four nominations would have to be considered. Religious themed films were big at the Oscars in the 1940s. One Foot in Heaven earned a Best Picture nod in 1941 despite not being nominated for anything else. The Song of Bernadette won Jennifer Jones a Best Actress award in 1943 and the film itself was said to be Casablanca’s biggest competition for the top prize at the 1943 awards. Going My Way swept the 1944 Oscars and its sequel, The Bells of St. Mary’s was a major contender in 1945. In addition, Gregory Peck’s performance earned him his first Best Actor nod over his two other high profile 1945 appearances in Spellbound and The Valley of Decision.

There would have to be room for A Tree Grows in Brooklyn as well. Though it was only nominated for two awards, it won one of them for Best Supporting Actor James Dunn and Peggy Ann Garner was awarded one of the seldom given juvenile Oscars for her wonderful performance.

That leave only one slot, which could well be a toss-up between State Fair (two nominations, one win); Leave Her to Heaven (three nominations, one win); The Picture of Dorian Gray (three nominations, one win); The Corn Is Green (two nominations, no wins); The Valley of Decision (two nominations, no wins); and The Story of G.I. Joe (four nominations, no wins).

I think we can discount The Story of G.I. Joe. Despite its four nods, everyone at the end of 1945 wanted to put the war behind them. They would have been reluctant to nominate a war movie for the top prize. Likewise Leave Her to Heaven. Mildred Pierce gets the “bad mommy” slot. Horror has never been very big at the Oscars so we can sadly take out The Picture of Dorian Gray. The Bells of St. Mary’s; National Velvet; The Keys of the Kingdom and A Tree Grows in Brooklyn all fulfill the need to nominate something inspirational, making it tougher to include The Corn Is Green. Three musicals are difficult to fathom, and since voters have already shown their preference for Anchors Aweigh and the semi-musical The Bells of St. Mary’s, State Fair’s chances are doomed.

That leaves us with The Valley of Decision, which would make it the fifth Greer Garson film nominated for Best Picture in as many years, following 1941’s Blossoms in the Dust; 1942’s Mrs. Miniver and Random Harvest and 1943’s Madame Curie, which would be fitting since it would turn out to be her last successful starring film. It would also give Gregory Peck three films in contention for Best Picture, a great welcome for the future Academy president.