For our fifth Rundown article, we’re looking at the documentary categories, feature and short subject. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Best Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, it’s time for Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• Summer of Soul (WL O) (WL R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Writing with Fire

Runner-Up Predictions

• Flee (WL O) (PP R) [New] (WL R) [New] (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: It’s run the table at most of the precursor awards, which suggests Summer of Soul should be the frontrunner, but Oscar voters are persnickety about which music-oriented documentaries they support and which they don’t. Flee might not have a shot at either of the other two awards for which it was nominated, so this might be its only chance. Of course, Oscar voters make oddball choices here as well, so none of this is set in stone.
Peter J. Patrick: The multi-award-winning Summer of Soul about the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival would seem to be the likely winner unless Flee, which is also nominated for Best Animated Feature and Best International Film, pulls out a win here, seemingly the easiest of the three categories for it to be recognized in.
Tripp Burton: The documentary branch tends to stay away from celebrities making documentaries, but Questlove overcame that hurdle in getting Summer of Soul nominated where so many have failed before him. I don’t see how the most awarded documentary of the year loses here, but if it does, its strongest competition is probably three-time nominee Flee, which has it’s best chance of winning here.
Thomas La Tourrette: Summer of Soul has been the frontrunner for some time, even though the Academy is often not that fond of archival footage docs. I had wondered if it would be snubbed by the Academy, but, since it was nominated, it is now the prohibitive favorite. My choice would be Flee, the story of a young Afghan refugee leaving his home country for first Russia and eventually Denmark. Being an animated film, it probably stands little chance of winning, but it would be cool it if did.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• Audible (WL R) [New] (WL R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Lead Me Home
• The Queen of Basketball (TB O)
• Three Songs for Benazir
• When We Were Bullies

Runner-Up Predictions

• Audible (TB O)
• Lead Me Home (WL R) [New]
• The Queen of Basketball (TL O)
• Three Songs for Benazir (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: This year’s crop of nominees is a little lackluster. The filmmaking techniques employed were serviceable at best and while they all tackle important topics, some of them didn’t feel like we learned anything much about ourselves or the world around us. The most emotionally engaging of the five, Audible may end up the winner. I could see Lead Me Home giving it a run for its money. Originally, The Queen of Basketball seemed like a solid contender, but having seen it, I think the excessive use of close-ups distracts more than accentuates. It could still win, but I’m doubtful. The other two nominees, When We Were Bullies and Three Songs for Benazir aren’t likely to resonate with voters the way the other three might, so I don’t think either can win, but I could be wrong.
Peter J. Patrick: Audible, about deaf football players, is the most cinematic of the bunch. Three Songs for Benazir, a sad look at a refugee camp, hits current events squarely in the jaw. Either one would be a good choice as would The Queen of Basketball.
Tripp Burton: This one will probably come down to the two sports documentaries this year, and my guess is that Ben Proudfoot (who lost this category last year) wins for his look at the first woman drafted into the NBA. The fact that his subject passed away last month only adds to that story. If not, however, Netflix has a strong contender with its football documentary (as well as two other contenders).
Thomas La Tourrette: While the live action shorts were better than average this year, the documentary shorts seemed not that exciting. Lead Me Home was about the homeless problem on the west coast, but did not dig very deeply into the issues. Three Songs for Benazir followed a man in a refugee camp in Kabul, Afghanistan, but it fizzled out at the end, and it just did not seem to go anywhere. When We Were Bullies was a fairly interesting doc about a man looking back on a bullying incident that he took part in back in fifth grade. It was good but just did not wrap up its story well. The Queen of Basketball told the story of a woman who none of us know and is mostly told in her own words. It might well win because it is a feel-good story. Audible was probably the most memorable following a deaf high school football team. It was a glimpse into a world most of us know little about though it jumped around too much and just was not as cohesive as it should have been. I think one of these last two will win, and it could go either way, though I am guessing that Audible might be the winner.

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