For our twelfth Rundown article, we present our predictions for Actress. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. ///Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with Animated Short Film.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (TB O)
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Runner-Up Predictions

• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (PP R) [New]
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (TB O)
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer (WL O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: This has been one of the strangest races in years. Critics seemed to have one set of honorees in mind while the SAG awards had a different set and BAFTA had a third set. You can toss out BAFTA because it doesn’t match up at all. Kristen Stewart has been the choice of 34.69% of precursors with Olivia Colman in second with 14.29%. SAG winner Jessica Chastain has 10.20% of honors, which includes SAG. None of the rest even break 10%. So, if we take these three as the primary contenders, then that knocks out Penelope Cruz, who already has an Oscar, and Nicole Kidman, who does as well. Kidman is a special case because she was thought to be the frontrunner for the longest time, but the fact that she’s only secured a Golden Globe award for her performance, I’d say she’s not doing well. Colman is a recent winner, which may hurt her chances, and fair or not, Kristen Stewart is still associated with her Twilight history. That really leaves Chastain as the only option. I could still see it going to Stewart thanks to her recent string of critical successes and I could also see them giving Colman a second Oscar just for being herself. In the end, I lean towards Chastain at this moment in time.
Peter J. Patrick: Oscar loves bios and Jessica Chastain is overdue making the combination irresistible. Olivia Colman gives another of her amazing performances and making her a strong runner-up.
Tripp Burton: This is going to be the biggest question mark of Oscar night, and I have no idea how it could land out. Kristen Stewart seemed to have the most momentum, then Nicole Kidman picked that up when Stewart started getting snubbed in the precursors, then Jessica Chastain won the SAG award, and none of these nominees are nominated for a BAFTA Award, which means there will be no more hints until the envelope is opened. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Penelope Cruz, who is following the late-release strategy that got Anthony Hopkins an award last year, sneaks in and wins this nail-biter.
Thomas La Tourrette: This category is so up in the air that the Oscar really could go to any of the nominees. Or they could have just as easily nominated Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) and had an equally strong contingent with no set front runner. For the first time ever, there is no crossover with the BAFTA nominations, so we cannot look to that for guidance either. With her win at SAG, Jessica Chastain has become the one to beat, though that could easily happen. She did a great job with the role, keeping it from being a caricature, though the movie itself was not as good as her performance. Nicole Kidman had seemed the likely winner for her portrayal of Lucille Ball, mostly because of her Golden Globe win. She was good but the movie has just not garnered that much excitement. Olivia Colman played another mercurial character in The Lost Daughter, but I am not certain that the Academy is ready to give her a second Oscar, especially for another little-seen movie. Penelope Cruz probably gave the best performance of the group, but seems to have the least chance of winning. That leaves Kristen Stewart who had been the perceived frontrunner before her snubs from SAG and BAFTA. Could she sneak in for a win without those nominations? Possible but doubtful. I so disliked the film that it is hard for me to judge her performance, and that rather makes me hope she does not win. None of the actresses appeared in a best picture nominee, and they all have only zero to two additional nominations between all five of the films. That lack of support does not help any of them. So, who will win? At this point I think Jessica Chastain, though we’ll have to see if the Critics Choice Awards changes that.

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