For our seventh Rundown article, we take a gander at Best Adapted Screenplay. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with Best Original Screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• The Father (TB O)
• Nomadland (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• One Night in Miami
• The White Tiger

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Father (WL O) (TL O)
• Nomadland (TB O)
• One Night in Miami (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Nomadland, being the Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture, is likely to see its chances in this category magnified as a result. Green Book got pulled along in spite of being an inferior script, so it’s likely that a well-regarded film like Nomadland should have an easy go of it. That said, The Father and One Night in Miami have their partisans and while The Father at least has a nominal chance at Best Picture, One Night was shut out of that category, making it the weaker competitor. Borat and The White Tiger weren’t surprises, but they were never contenders.
Peter J. Patrick: I see this as a three-way race between Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and The Father. My preference is for One Night in Miami, which opens up what could have been a static stage-bound retread, considerably. That said, I think Nomadland might give Best Directing frontrunner Chloé Zhao a second Oscar to take home on Oscar night.
Tripp Burton: I feel like a broken record discussing this, but all season I keep saying that Nomadland does not feel like a screenplay winner, and then it continually shows up and has become the most rewarded screenplay of the season. The Father, though, is being seen by more people, and seems to be loved by more people as they see it, and I think it might be a dark horse here in the category it is most likely to win in.
Thomas La Tourrette: Nomadland will be the winner, and it is difficult to imagine anything else winning. It has the most precursor awards and it just is the flavor of the month, nothing will stand in its path to victory. The different realities of The Father were intriguing, but not enough to win. One Night in Miami did a good job of opening up a play that was probably originally set in one room. The White Tiger was rather a surprise nominee, even with a guild nom, but it will have to be content with that. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm does boast the largest number of writers ever nominated for a single film, but quantity will not get it over the finish line. Chloé Zhao easily wins here and as best director.

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