For our sixth Rundown article, we’re looking at a category where leads slum and supporting players get left out. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover a design category where the overall look of a film is crucial.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara – Carol
• Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Runner-Up Predictions

• Rooney Mara – Carol (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New](TL O)
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (TB R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Will the lead roles slumming in Supporting Actress triumph over the genuine supporting actresses? All signs seem to be pointing to yes. Although Kate Winslet won a surprise Golden Globe, Alicia Vikander has been picking up everything else. While The Danish Girl didn’t seem very well liked, she’s having just too great a year to ignore. Of course, Rooney Mara could be the lone rallying point for fans of Carol with few other categories available to it, but her performance may just be too subtle for Academy voters. Rachel McAdams could ride a Spotlight wave and Jennifer Jason Leigh could win a victory for her lengthy and well respected career. Even Winslet could win for what is, ostensibly, her return to the world of unique and compelling characterizations.
Peter J. Patrick: This is as odd a group of nominees as this category has ever seen. Rachel McAdams is good but underutilized in Spotlight. Jennifer Jason Leigh is good but not very likeable in The Hateful Eight. Kate Winslet is good in Steve Jobs but unless Michael Fassbender pulls off a surprise Best Actor win I don’t see the award going her way. That leaves it between two lead actresses masquerading as supporting actresses. Either Rooney Mara in Carol or Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl could win. I give the edge to Vikander who also gave an award-worthy performance in Ex Machina.
Tripp Burton: This seems like one of those wide-open races, mostly because every precursor has had a different mix of contenders. Fresh off her SAG win, Alicia Vikander would seem the favorite here, both for her The Danish Girl performance as well as the slew of other appearances she made in films this year. If not her, though, Oscar favorite Kate Winslet could pickup her second Oscar, or Rooney Mara could pick up a token award for Carol (although I’m not sure the Academy is in any rush to award that film).
Thomas La Tourrette: My top two choices in this category are women that should have been nominated for lead actress. That point is moot now that they are up for this category. Probably more than Eddie Redmayne who played her husband in The Danish Girl, Alicia Vikander was the heart of the film. Strong, caring and confused by her husband’s choices, she steadfastly stood by him and tried to help him make the right choices. It was a strong character who got a big story arc with a huge number of emotions to play through and Vikander did it beautifully. She would not have stood a chance at winning in the Best Actress category, but it would have made it a more interesting race. She also was very good in Ex Machina, and having two strong roles in one year should help propel her to the win. Her recent win at the SAG awards cements her as the frontrunner. Her stiffest competition comes from Rooney Mara who proved the equal of Cate Blanchett in Carol. Hers was a quieter character and performance, and the former is what probably will keep her out of the winners circle as the Academy does prefer flashier roles. Kate Winslet might have stood a chance at winning for her performance in Steve Jobs, but a fairly recent win as Best Actress will hurt her chances, though she was a surprise winner at the Golden Globes. Neither Rachel McAdams nor Jenniefer Jason Leigh have much of a chance of winning. It may be category fraud, but Vikander will win for her brilliant work.

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