For our third Rundown article, we examine one of the seemingly pre-set categories for this year’s Oscars. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Tueday, we’ll cover another foregone concluion.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Laura Dern – Wild
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone – Birdman
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Runner-Up Predictions

• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (WL R) [New]
• Emma Stone – Birdman (WL R) [New] (PP O)(TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: As much as I want for there to be an alternative in one of the major categories, the trajectory of most of this year’s front-runners seems to be continuing unabated. As is the case for Patricia Arquette. Arquette has cruised through most of the guild awards with little difficulty. When she could have faced some speed bumps (SAG and the Globes), she came through with flying colors. While I still feel she could easily be upset by someone who’s had a longer, more fruitful film career, right now I cannot really see a viable alternative other than Emma Stone, who may be too young to win on her first nomination; and Keira Knightley who should have been in a better position with Harvey Weinstein behind her, but isn’t.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t imagine anyone but Arquette winning this. Her single mother who “thought there would be more” has already wrung true with the preponderance of critics and other awards granters. Stone or Knightly could upset with a last-minute surge in popularity of their films, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Dern’s part is too small and Streep is not going to get a fourth for something a uneven as her witch in Into the Woods.
Tripp Burton: I keep hearing people talking about whether Patricia Arquette is about to falter, but my question is who would take her place? Laura Dern’s part is too short, if Meryl Streep had to wait so long for Oscar #3, I don’t see her winning #4 for this, and Emma Stone and Keira Knightley, while popular actresses in Best Picture contenders, might be a few years away from major awards recognition. The only way that I see Arquette losing here is if Birdman or The Imitation Game really pick up steam and start to sweep, but even so, this is a great place to honor Boyhood. One of the biggest locks of the season, surprisingly enough.
Thomas La Tourrette: Patricia Arquette has been on a roll, winning almost twice as many of the precursor awards as her competitors have combined. She will easily add the Oscar to that haul. She had a strong story arc in Boyhood, and she played the part beautifully of a caring but flawed mother. Her strongest competition comes from Emma Stone as Michael Keaton’s disturbed daughter in Birdman. She showed far more range in this role than she had previously. In a different year, she would stand a chance, but I don’t see anyone derailing Arquette. Keira Knightley did show that her previous nomination was not a fluke, and she glowed as the young, intelligent code breaker. The Academy has often in the past given this award to a young ingénue, but there is no way that will happen this year. Laura Dern and Meryl Streep can be happy to have gotten nominations, but stand no chance of winning. Arquette will win, and she deserves to with this performance.

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