For our fourth Rundown article, we look at the most secure category at the Oscars this year. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll look at two of the smaller categories, not just by familiarity, but by length.

Best Supporting actor

Winner Predictions

• Robert Duvall – The Judge
• Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
• Edward Norton – Birdman
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Edward Norton – Birdman (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Robert Duvall – The Judge (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: J.K. Simmons is a wonderful character actor and I won’t begrudge him a win, but he’s been the front-runner since his film premiered months ago and hasn’t lost any of that steam. Edward Norton has been his chief rival all through precursor season and I could see the Academy jumping ship if Simmons weren’t such a noted character actor.
Peter J. Patrick: Barring a last minute surge for Birdman, I suspect J.K. Simmons will continue his awards sweep with the Best Supporting Actor Oscar.
Tripp Burton: J.K. Simmons has been a near sure thing for the whole season, and I don’t see that letting up at the Oscars. His film is wildly popular, he is a beloved character actor who has given great speeches and the role has Oscar written all over it. The also-rans will have to be happy with a nomination.
Thomas La Tourrette: Ever since Whiplash premiered, Simmons should have started work on his Oscar acceptance speech. He has racked up over three times as many awards as his competition has, and the Oscar will add to that. He has been working for many years, and is well respected in the field. Whiplash did give him a chance to show a different side than usual for him, and he played the sadistic professor very well. He is very good in the role, though I am sorry that he is such a juggernaut in the field and that this just is not a real race. Edward Norton sizzles in Birdman and could have won almost any other year. He will have to continue to wait for his first Oscar. Ethan Hawke is good in Boyhood, but does not have as strong a story arc as Patricia Arquette, so will not join her at the podium. Mark Ruffalo will have to be content with the nomination as he stands no chance of winning for Foxcatcher. If anyone were to best Simmons, I think it would be longtime veteran Robert Duvall, who has gotten his seventh nomination at age 84. He last won over 30 years ago, and some Academy members may think he deserves a second win. Even so, I don’t think it will be close and Simmons will cruise to a win on his first nomination.

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