For our second Rundown article, we look at a category that ended up competitive in a completely different way than we imagined. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Foreign Language Film as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that seems like a foregone conclusion.

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner Predictions

• Ida (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Leviathan (TB O)
• Tangerines
• Timbuktu
• Wild Tales

Runner-Up Predictions

• Leviathan (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Ida (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: When the season started, everyone thought this race would come down to a competition between Ida and Force Majeure, the two film that competed most strongly throughout precursor season, but after the foreign language committee rejected Force Majeure and the Golden Globes picked Leviathan, it seems now to be a battle between those two films. Yet, Timbuktu has been seen now and is getting some pretty strong reviews and could be a spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: Poland’s Ida wasn’t only the year’s best foreign language film, it was one of the five best films of the year and should win easily here. Russia’s Leviathan is the only film I can see pulling an upset.
Tripp Burton: Since they restructured the way this category is chosen, the more well-known films have been picking up this award, even if they aren’t the most accessible. This year, Ida and Leviathan are by far the more seen of these films. Leviathan won the Globe while Ida picked up a second Oscar nomination. It’s going to be tight down to the wire, but today I predict Leviathan. Tomorrow I may change my mind.
Thomas La Tourrette: Ida is the tenth Polish film to be nominated in this category, and could be the first to win. The fact that its striking black and white cinematography was also nominated definitely helps its chances, as often a film that has other nominations will win, though that did not prove the case for Germany’s The White Ribbon a few years back. Comedies do not usually win here, so that probably drops Wild Tales out of the running. Timbuktu is probably the most relevant for recent events, but the strongest competition will come from Russia’s Leviathan. Russian and Soviet films have won four times before, but not in 20 years. It will be a tight race, made more so by Leviathan’s win at the Golden Globes, but I think Ida will prevail.

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