For our fourteenth Rundown article, we look at the foundations of all motion pictures. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover two more aural categories.

Best Original Screenply

Winner Predictions

• American Hustle (TB O)
• Blue Jasmine
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Her (WL O) (PP O)
• Nebraska

Runner-Up Predictions

• American Hustle (WL O) (PP O)
• Her (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: Two Best Picture nominees are duking it out for Best Original Screenplay. While I’ve seen support of the screenplay for American Hustle, I’ve seen far more people indicating that it’s the film’s weakest aspect. Her also won the prize from the Writers Guild of America, giving it a bit more momentum. Of course, it’s hard to think that a film considered to be running third as a contender for Best Picture and not being more dominant than a definite also-ran, but this is an usual year. Could American Hustle go the Turning Point/Color Purple/Gangs of New York route? It most certainly could. Will it? I’m not 100% sure. This is one of a handful of categories I rate as a toss-up and wouldn’t be surprised to see either a victor.
Peter J. Patrick: Spike Jonze’s ingeniously written screenplay for Her should and will win over the sloppily written if more popular American Hustle.
Tripp Burton: This is one of the closest races of the evening, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Spike Jonze on the stage for Her. It is such an original premise, and this award can rest on the most creative story of a film. But American Hustle will probably not win anywhere else, and David O. Russell has had such a strong couple of years, that this might be the chance to reward him. But I won’t be sure until the envelope is opened.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O)
• Before Midnight
• Captain Phillips (TB R) [New]
• Philomena
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Up Predictions

• 12 Years a Slave (TB R) [New]
• Philomena (WL O) (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: The Writers Guild of America was especially unhelpful this year. One of the primary competitors for this award was ineligible for WGA consideration. So, instead, Captain Phillips won there. Yet, 12 Years a Slave bounced back with the USC Scripter prize, which has been a better overall predictor in recent years. Along with being a frontrunner for Best Picture, 12 Years a Slave has earned a great deal of praise for its screenplay. If anything other than 12 Years a Slave wins, then I don’t see how the film could take Best Picture at that point, so this will be one of the key categories of the night.
Peter J. Patrick: I really don’t see how 12 Years a Slave can miss this one and remain the Best Picture nominee to beat.
Tripp Burton: A few weeks ago I thought 12 Years a Slave had this in the bag, but Captain Phillips has gained speed in the guilds, and this could be another place to honor the film. Add in that Billy Ray is well-liked in Hollywood, and John Ridley made a lot of people mad during the Writer’s Strike a few years ago, and you have a closer race than expected.

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