For our tenth Rundown article, we look at one of two lead acting categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the corresponding lead category.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Christian Bale – American Hustle
• Bruce Dern – Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
• Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: For over a decade, Matthew McConaughey was little more than a pin-up playing at acting. He showed little promise and after awhile, his appearance in films dwindled. In the last couple of years, he decided to take a new tack, delving into independent cinema and attempting to prove that he was more than a pretty face. Anyone who would have seen him in the 1990s never would have guessed, but he succeeded. That will likely pay off on Oscar night as he has clearly dominated the precursors, beating fellow frontrunner Chiwetel Ejiofor on several fronts. That trend is likely to continue through Oscar night, but sympathy for long-ignored Leonardo DiCaprio could cause a paradigm shift in the race. Yet, DiCaprio is more likely to siphon votes from McConaughey than from Ejiofor and in a tight three-way race, Ejiofor could come out on top. I don’t suspect that will happen, but it would be interesting. For now, McConaughey holds onto the lead.
Peter J. Patrick: Two first time nominees appear to be the front-runners in this race. McConaughey has won the preponderance of precursors and Ejiofor, the early favorite, finally won the BAFTA, but be surprised if either DiCaprio, whose first nomination was twenty years ago, or Dern, whose only previous nomination was thirty-five years, ago pull off an upset.
Tripp Burton: Matthew McConaughey has yet to lose an award this season (except for those he wasn’t eligible for, like the BAFTA), and I can’t see him losing at the Oscars. He is a well-liked Hollywood personality, giving a charismatic performance in a film that over performed on nomination day.

KEY: