The Rundown 2012: Supporting Actor

For our sixth Rundown article, we look at the race to give someone a second or third Oscar. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that has no precursor to guide it.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

  • Alan Arkin – Argo
  • Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook (O)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
  • Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln (O) (O)
  • Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Runner-Up Predictions

  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master (O)
  • Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln (O)
  • Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained (O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Who’s going to take home another Oscar. All five nominees in this category already have an Oscar (or two) and the question is which is most likely to take home a second (or third). Robert De Niro is the only one with two trophies on his mantle and while he’s a beloved figure in Hollywood, I don’t think he’s going to join the ranks of three-time Oscar winners (unless the Academy decides to give out a pair or even three such accolades in one night). Of the remaining four, two have the lion’s share of precursors with Tommy Lee Jones leading the pack. Philip Seymour Hoffman has one in lead while all three of the others have Oscars in support. Tommy Lee Jones has been steadily working in high profile projects and may very well take home his second Oscar. JOnes is the only one on this list (apart form De Niro) that sounds like the kind of actor who is due for a second. Hoffman may get a second some day, I but I don’t think this will be the day. I’d be surprised if Arkin or Waltz took home a second, but Arkin’s win would be due to a potential Best Picture victory by Argo than any commentary on the quality of his performance.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a tough one because all five nominees are previous winners. Robert De Niro had two wins, one in lead and one in support. Philip Seymour Hoffman is a former Best Actor winner while Alan Arkin, Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz all have Suppporting Actor Oscars. I’m guessing voters will make Tommy Lee Jones the first two-time winner in this category since Michael Caine in 1999.
Tripp Burton: This is one of the hardest categories for me to try to figure out, mostly because of how bizarre it is: everyone is a previous winner, no one has swept the precursors and each performance seems to have more detractors than supporters. The consensus seems to be that Tommy Lee Jones will win a second award, but Lincoln isn’t proving as popular a film as we thought it was. Jones has been much mocked for being so unhappy at every event this season (when he shows up) and I’m not sure if there is really a clamoring for him to be a two-time winner (although that didn’t hurt Hilary Swank or Sally Field). Robert De Niro, on the other hand, has shown up at every event seeming more jovial and lively than usual, is in a film that the Academy loves and is certainly enough of a national treasure that people wouldn’t complain if he had 3 Oscars. I won’t be shocked at anyone’s name being read, but for now I’m thinking that De Niro may be the one to beat here.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original, Post-Nomination Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series Prediction

2 Comments

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  1. For who I think SHOULD win, I think Hoffman and Waltz are most deserving. Of course, that means nothing. I wasn’t blown away by Jones, so maybe others feel the same way. De Niro hasn’t been enough of a factor in the precursors to make a run here, and Arkin already won his long-overdue Oscar recently. Hoffman stole an Oscar previously, which is ironic because if he hadn’t won for Capote, a much less iconic performance, he’d probably be the favorite here. That leaves Waltz, who has a few things going for him: He’s only won one Oscar, his performance has been acclaimed, he’s been strong in the precursors, he could be carrying water for the other supporting actors in the movie(especially Samuel L. Jackson), and his film has muscle behind it and probably won’t win elsewhere. I think I’ve talked myself into Waltz.

  2. This category this year is a toss up

    Tommy Lee Jones probably will win

    Although I prefer Christoph Waltz to win because I loved his caracter more than the other four nominees.

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