For our sixteenth Rundown article, we cover the big one. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race. Later today, we’ll give your our final predictions so you can take a stab at the various Oscar pools out there.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• Amour
• Argo (R) [New] (R) [New]
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Les Miserables (O)
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

Runner-Up Predictions

• Lincoln (O) (R) [New]
• Silver Linings Playbook (O)

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Wesley Lovell: I’ve said many times in other posts that this category comes down to which film will break precedents. Not a single film in this list can win without shattering some preconceived notions. In the end, I think Argo has the necessary momentum while three other films could come from behind to surprise. Silver Linings Playbook, apart from being a comedy, has the most traditional must-haves for winning Best Picture. It has acting, directing, writing and editing nominations along with a Golden Globe award and a handful of other precursors. With Harvey Weinstein circling the tight race like a shark, a Shakespeare in Love-style upset could happen. Lincoln could end up with enough support to win, but Life of Pi seems more likely to triumph than it.
Peter J. Patrick: This has been a topsy-turvy race from the very first year-end awards in early December. Argo seems to have the momentum, but does it really? My predicted winner probably doesn’t have much of a chance, but I’d rather be wrong than have to answer for a last-minute wavering if my early hunch proves to be right.
Tripp Burton: I didn’t think I would do it, but I am predicting that for the second time in 80 years, a film with no Best Director nomination will take Best Picture. It’s tough for me to predict that, and I really want to lean back on Lincoln winning here, but there is just too much narrative and precursor love going to Argo that it is hard to vote against it. It’s a tighter race than most are making it seem, but Argo is the film to beat right now.

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