The Rundown 2012: Actor

For our tenth Rundown article, a category where the leader in the race has more precursor wins than any other. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll cover the last of the “companion” categories.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

  • Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln (R) [New] (O) (O)
  • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
  • Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
  • Denzel Washington – Flight

Runner-Up Predictions

  • Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook (R) [New]
  • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables (R) [New] (O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: The last time we had an eventuality like this turn out badly, Daniel Day-Lewis lost the Oscar for Gangs of New York to shock winner Adrien Brody for The Pianist. Will that happen again this year? I doubt it. The Academy may finally be ready to recognize Day-Lewis with a record third Best Actor Oscar. Only one other actor in history has received more than two lead honors and Katharine Hepburn has four. Yet, there will always be a kernel of doubt. Will the Academy be willing to give him number 3 so early in his life compared to prior three-time winners? We shall see, but the majority of precursors named him Best Actor for an iconic character and right now, I don’t see any reason for him not to carry it out. As for runner-up, Hugh Jackman seems to have peaked already, meaning we could see an Oscar going to prior nominee Joaquin Phoenix or even a second for Denzel Washington or for newcomer Bradley Cooper. I still think Jackman could end up winning, but never underestimate Harvey Weinstein.
Peter J. Patrick: Daniel Day-Lewis has all but been anointed king of the world for his portrayal of the 16th President in Lincoln. He should easily become the first three-time Best Actor Oscar winner, joining Katharine Hepburn as the only performer to have ever won three or more lead Oscars. Hepburn has four.
Tripp Burton: One of the surest bets of the evening is Daniel Day-Lewis, who seems to be coasting easily to his record third Best Actor Oscar. The beloved actor has been charming and gracious picking up every award this season, and even the strongest detractors of either Lincoln or Day-Lewis praise his performance. The only thing that may stand in his way is Silver Linings Playbook, which still has the possibility (with Harvey Weinstein behind it) to sneak in some extra awards. If it does, Bradley Cooper could sneak in here, but that is a very big if.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original, Post-Nomination Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series Prediction

4 Comments

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  1. I think Day-Lewis deserves to win but I also really liked Bradley Cooper and Denzel. Any other year this would be a barnburner of a race.

  2. Daniel Day-Lewis will win because he highly deserves it. Period.

  3. It also would mark the first time in 10 nominations that there will be an win for playing a real or fictional U.S. President

    Real: Lincoln (twice), Wilson, Truman, Nixon (twice) and John Quincy Adams (actually after his presidency)
    Fictional: Merken Muffley, Art Hockstader and Jackson Evans

  4. Danny deserves it, he’s so good a Lincoln he can give goosebumps even to a Lincoln hater.

    He lost in Gangs of New York because the character was to disgusting and denzel won the year before for a non hero character as well.

    Linconl is an historic hero, academy loves to award performances of american historic heroes.

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