For our eleventh Rundown article, the categories most frequently confused (seemingly) in Oscar voters’ minds. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Cinematography as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll cover a category that might have been thrilling, but has become anything but.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• The Tree of Life (New)(R) (New)(R) (New)(R)
• War Horse

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Artist (R) (R) (R)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Three out of five of the last winners of the American Society of Cinematographers awards have gone on to claim the Oscar for Best Cinematography. This year’s winner, The Tree of Life has boatload of precursors in its favor and is hoping to bring Emmanuel Lubezki a long overdue award. But history suggests Terrence Malick’s film may have a challenge. Of his features’ prior two nominations, he’s lost each time, once having even won the ASC prize. The film wasn’t nominated at BAFTA, meaning the winner there may give us an idea of what movie can beat Tree of Life at the Oscars. That winner was The Artist and if it sweeps in any way similar to Slumdog Millionaire, a lot of categories it shouldn’t win may end up as bolstering numbers for the final prize. I think Lubezki still has the edge, but never underestimate the power of a gimmick (e.g. black-and-white).

Peter J. Patrick: If there’s one thing everyone liked about The Tree of Life, it was its cinematography. The only way it will lose is if AMPAS members refuse to award it a single prize, in which case The Artist could add to its haul.

Tripp Burton: Even this film’s strongest detractors can’t argue that The Tree of Life is the most gorgeously shot film of the year, and this is the Academy’s best chance to award the film. If Emmanuel Lubezki doesn’t win his first Oscar, then it would mean that a sweep of either The Artist or Hugo is carrying the category instead. That is doubtful.

KEY: