For our third Rundown article, we’ve got a rare race between a slew of veterans and one neophyte whose recognition is in the nomination. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start Monday off with a category that has the potential to anger or disappoint many people.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Kenneth Branagh – My Life With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill – Moneyball
• Nick Nolte – Warrior
• Christopher Plummer – Beginners (O) (New)(R) (O)
• Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Runner-Up Predictions

• Kenneth Branagh – My Life With Marilyn (R)
• Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (R) (R)

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Wesley Lovell: Christopher Plummer has been chugging through awards season picking up important accolades along the way. Some say Hollywood doesn’t like him much as a person, but after the various awards shows where he’s shown quite a bit of wit and charm, I think most of them will agree to recognize Plummer. His performance is pretty good, too, which will allow them to fall back on that tack even if they don’t like him. Max von Sydow could sneak in for a career award, but he seems more the kind of person the Honorary Awards were created for.
Peter J. Patrick: Plummer has won so many precursors that he is all but guaranteed to take home his first Oscar at 82. If there is an upset it’s likely to be another 82 year-old who causes it. Oscar voters may wish to honor Von Sydow for his laudatory career as much as for his lovely performance.
Tripp Burton: Christopher Plummer has had the momentum to win here since June, when his film came out, and it is hard for me to see him lose here. He is a much loved veteran who many see as long overdue for an Oscar, and also happens to give one of the most loved performances of the year. This is the rare lifetime achievement citation that will actually be for a beloved piece of work. If he doesn’t win, it will probably be Kenneth Branagh (another actor who many see as overdue for an Oscar), who could ride Michelle Williams’ coattails to Oscar glory. Max von Sydow could syphon some votes his way from Christopher Plummer, especially those itching to reward a beloved film veteran, while Nick Nolte and Jonah Hill will surely sit this one out.

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