For our fourth Rundown article, a category least in line with general expectations. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Foreign Language Film as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll discuss a category that has many different faces.

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner Predictions

• Bullhead
• Footnote
• In Darkness
• Monsieur Lazhar
• A Separation (O) (O) (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• In Darkness (R) (R) (R)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Any other result will probably start a scandal. A Separation has been universally acclaimed and were it to lose, the furor would be deafening. Why? Because this is a film from Iran, one of the West’s biggest enemies in the Middle East, which tends to elicit strong reactions among certain members of the filmmaking community. What’s worse is how they treated filmmaker Jafar Panahi. Yet, the film has managed to steamroll through late precursors and picked up an Original Screenplay nomination. This should mean a guaranteed win, but Pan’s Labyrinth won Oscars outside of Foreign Language Film and still didn’t manage to win the prize. If Isreal’s less impressive entry were to win, then charges of bigotry might be flung. Yet, I think the film most likely to triumph over A Separation is Holocaust drama In Darkness which fits right in the Academy’s pro-Holocaust-Drama wheelhouse. On top of that, those voters not wanting to recognize the Iranian entry will find In Darkness the perfect “antidote” and also a way to keep it form seeming like they are being anti-Iran (think of how Crash was the perfect way to prevent Brokeback Mountain from winning Best Picture and you’ll get the idea).

Peter J. Patrick: The Iranian film, A Separation, is both specific to modern day-to-day life in Iran and universal in its story and thus its appeal. It has won numerous international awards and most of the precursors to this year’s Oscars. I would be surprised if it doesn’t win, but not shocked as this category has had its share of surprises over the years. Most likely to benefit from an upset: Poland’s Holocasut survivors drama, In Darkness, based on real life events. To her surprise, director Agnieszka Holland has been approached by real life survivors of the sewers after the release of the film. It gives the film an added cachet with that portion of the membership that given the opportunity almost always votes for a Holocaust drama to keep the memory alive.

Tripp Burton: A Separation is one of the best reviewed films of the year, and also is the only one of these nominees with another Oscar nomination to its credit (Best Original Screenplay). That combination, especially in recent years, plus the political statement in awarding a film from Iran, should lead to a pretty swift victory in this field. However, never doubt the power of the World War II foreign film. In Darkness, the Polish entry, fits that bill to a tee, and is said to be a crowd-pleaser.

KEY: