For our second Rundown article, we’re looking at two categories that cover the non-fiction portion of Oscar’s evening. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover one of the top-tier categories which features an irregular race between four aging legends.

Documetnary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Hell and Back Again (New)(R) (New)(R)
• If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
• Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (New)(R)
• Pina
• Undefeated

Runner-Up Predictions

• Pina (R) (R)
• Undefeated (R)

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Wesley Lovell: This year, your guess is probably as good as mine. There are no extremely political selections this year, which makes the options more confusing. Undefeated has The Weinstein Company behind it, which could push it passed the competition. Yet, something about both Paradise Lost 3 and Hell and Back Again make me think they could be the ultimate victors. Some might be waiting for Peter Jackson’s West Memphis Three documentary, which could leave the door wide open.
Peter J. Patrick: I think the war doc will win out over the dance doc, but it’s a close call.
Tripp Burton: This may be one of the most wide-open races at the awards this year, and any of these contenders could put up an argument for a win. Paradise Lost 3 has picked up a nomination where its predecessors didn’t, and certainly has the importance of the series’ influence on getting their subject matter out of jail. Hell and Back Again is the only war film nominated this year, although war films haven’t done overly well in this category the past few years. If a Tree Falls has the environmental message that got The Cove a win two years ago, Undefeated may be the best reviewed of all these films and Pina could bring legendary filmmaker Wim Wenders his first Oscar. I am going to guess that Paradise Lost 3 will come out on top, but wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these titles in the envelope.

Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• The Barber of Birmingham
• God Is Bigger Than Elvis (O)
• Incident in New Baghdad
• Saving Face (New)(R)
• The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Saving Face (R)
• The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (R) (R)

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Wesley Lovell: I haven’t heard much about most of these, but three of them could easily triumph with Oscar’s finicky voters. The Barber of Birmingham would be a nice companion piece to the Academy’s love of The Help; Saving Face talks about the plight of women’s rights in the Middle East; and The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom tells a heartwarming story of tragedy and survival. So which will take home the prize? I don’t know for sure, but while I’m leaning towards Tsunami, I think Saving Face has more potential.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary
Tripp Burton: This is always the hardest category to predict, because the voting body seems to be the most sporadic on these. I can’t imagine them overlooking the important, current event plot-line of The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, which seems to play right into the Academy’s wheelhouse. On the other hand, Saving Face is the first Pakistani film nominated for an Oscar, which could be enticing to voters, as could the old Hollywood-centric God is the Bigger Elvis.

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