We had one film release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Birth of a Nation

Sundance is often the early launching point for Oscar contenders who want to dig into the specialty box office and build buzz ahead of the Oscars. This year, they did just that. After a pre-screening standing ovation for Birth of a Nation, it seemed that the film might be well positioned for the Oscars to run the board thanks to two years where no black acting nominees were selected. I’ve already talked ad nauseum about why that is ludicrous argument on its face, but even without the spectre of #OscarsSoWhite hanging over it, Birth of a Nation seemed to fit the bill for Oscar potential. Serious subject matter. Up and coming actor/writer/director. Applause.

That house of cards came tumbling down not too long after that. It started with post-screening shoulder-shrugging from a handful of critics that didn’t seem to get much attention. Then came the allegations that the actor/writer/director Nate Parker had been accused of sexual assault almost two decades earlier while in college. He and his friend Jean McGianni Celestin share Story By credits on the film and, together, were accused of the sexual assault of a drunken woman. While Parker was acquitted, Celestin was convicted, but the conviction was overturned on appeal. Both outcomes were based on circumstantial evidence. As the sordid details have emerged and the revelation that their accuser committed suicide after a period of harassment and attacks post-assault, Parker’s film has spiraled out of control falling into the waste bin of Oscar’s history.

It’s important though to put some of this in perspective. The film sits with a 78% Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, with a 7.2/10 rating. That’s pretty good for an Oscar bait film. The good, but less auspicious, 68 rating at MetaCritic confirms the impression that while the film is liked well enough, the detractors are vocal and not really a minority. The film has some serious problems in terms of mass support from critics. That might not curtail its Oscar chances, but the continued press tour for the film has not been helpful.

Parker has been combative and insistent, ignoring the charges and, instead of apologizing, doubling down on his innocence. It is also clear from his own words that something happened, but in his mind, he doesn’t seem to believe it was sexual assault or rape. As such, those who have been most vocally opposed to him have only received more ammunition to keep fighting. As Donald Trump can now attest. Doubling down on serious allegations is not the best way to handle a situation.

If he were to apologize and perhaps donate his proceeds from the film to help protect and defend sexual assault survivors, he might do a lot in rebuilding the bridges he has burned down himself and could re-enter the race without the grim negativity of sexual assault. He doesn’t have the history of a Roman Polanski to back his support by the Hollywood community, not to mention that Polanski has apologized and largely accepted responsibility for his actions. So, while the comparisons will be drawn, Parker just doesn’t have the level of support he will need to move past this unless he corrects course more quickly and definitively.

Until that point, his Oscar chances are effectively done. The film might make an appearance or two in creative categories and some of his co-stars might escape unscathed for acting nominations, but a lot will have to happen to get this beached juggernaut back into the water.